Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DeMonetisationDisaster

Most recents (10)

How it started. How it ended.

Nov 08: The sixth anniversary of the Demonetisation disaster.

6 साल हो गए। सरकार और इसके नीमहक़ीमों द्वारा किए गए नोटबंदी सारी बीमारियों का शर्तिया इलाज के सारे दावे एक-एक करके धराशायी हो गए। नोटबंदी एक आपदा थी
In between the very next day 👇in Japan
Read 4 tweets
Lets take a moment on how billionaires have publicist who seasonally write profile stories masquerading as news / opinions for years together. A thread 🧵 on @/SarithaRai articles on @/NandanNilekani

After all - If Nandan wants you to read his publicist's piece, why just one?
bbc.com/news/world-asi… 6 June 2012 - Why India's identity scheme is groundbreaking

#AadhaarPR
indianexpress.com/article/opinio… March 11, 2014 - The unfinished makeover of Nandan

🗳️ #ElectionTime PR
Read 16 tweets
A #DemonetisationDisaster story I mightve tweeted before. We were on a Neeta bus from Bombay to Pune in Dec 2016. A trip I'd made 100s of times. I had told Rupal how I loved the food vendors who got on the bus in Chembur, Vashi, Lonavala. And bought their product very often.
That time though, with cash in short supply, we had to be selective. In Vashi, dude selling boiled peanuts got on. We bought the peanuts. They were great. But the bus broke down. We had to wait an hour or so until a replacement bus arrived. I started chatting with vendors.
The peanut guy remembered me as the only person on the bus who bought something from him. Most people didn't buy anything. Twas Dec 2016. But Oct 2016, people would have been buying this stuff big time. Not in Dec.

Modi decided to abolish 85% of the nation's currency overnight.
Read 13 tweets
The problem is not the #DeMonetisationDisaster itself. It could be a limited surgical strike which could be effective.

It is the obsession with moving people into the "formal economy." The formal economy is the English economy, babu controlled. It is oppressive for most people.
You have no clue how India work. The street vendor peddles her wares, make a living. You want her to file English-only GST, employ an English-only CA to deal with English-only laws and the state.

But she still powers the formal economy from her savings.

This is the kind of absurd wannabe economic thinking that powers the govt. Deep inferiority complex, obsession with "modernity" & "English", of aping the West.
Read 3 tweets
On the two year anniversary of #Demonetization, there is nothing new to say, except that it continues to be the disaster on a mammoth scale we all predicted, with long-term effects and a major slowdown of economic growth. #DemonetisationDisaster 1/n
My first column from Nov 2016 on the faulty assumptions made by the government, fundamentally equating cash with black money - a terrible mistake in a country like India that runs on cash and has a huge informal sector mostly affecting the poor. 2/n realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/…
My second piece from Nov 2016, co-written with @lawrencehwhite1 on some of the seigniorage effects of demonetization and the one-time wealth transfer to the government, and also the lesser known and discussed Cantillon effects from the non-uniform injection of the new notes. 3/n
Read 8 tweets
On the eve of the #2ndAnniversary of the #DeMonetisation that we know was a #DemonetisationDisaster I present a Tweet thread on my analysis of just one of the many claims made for it - that it would boost #cashless #digital transactions. It did not do that. Here's my evidence:
The analysis and paper (Draft 1) is here:
on issuu: issuu.com/home/published…
and
on Scribd: scribd.com/document/39252…
But here in this thread I present the main results. Previous analysts used a simplistic approach of doing a before-after comparison. But this is a spurious method
It leads to the Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. See rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,…
My analytical approach was simple. I used the figures from RBI and took the monthly data upto Oct 2016 on each idicator and treated it as a regular time series data. (see robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fpp/)
Read 18 tweets
Let me rewind some of my columns on #DemonetisationDisaster

My last year's detailed take in @frontline_india on

"BLUSTER AS A POLICY"

frontline.in/cover-story/bl…
I concluded that article with the following observations

#DemonetisationDisaster
Of course, in that article I have given an estimate of how much currency is seized as black money due to #DemonetisationDisaster
Read 27 tweets
Here is my take on #DemonetisationDisaster, A CIRCUS, CLOWNS AND A SILVER BULLET.
Special thanks to my co-author Nandakumar (@varunan) whose edit added more firepower.
epaper.nationalheraldindia.com//imageview_878…
Did you know this?

RBI shredded more Demonetised notes (SBN) than the Currency in Circulation in 2017-18..

Yep, demonetisation made all of us CLOWNS
My answer to Arun Jaitley's bragging about IT growth.

As always he uses selective data to sell his narratives.
Read 12 tweets
"In Kerala, there’s no reason to damn the dams" here is my answer to all pundits who are preaching an early opening of Idukki would have saved the flooding of Periyar..

Read it slowly and understand the nuances! nationalheraldindia.com/india/in-keral…
Grab the hardcopy and read @NH_India
I felt depressed when a person who served as the Director of the prestigious IITM says that he has given warning & Kerala has no respect for his warning but Odisha has!!
Oh boy!! I am at a loss if you cant discern cyclones in East coast and extreme rainfall in Western coast
Read 8 tweets
#Demonetisation #Notebandi
1. Thread. Today the Government will try to refute the idea that the RBI numbers on 99.3% of demonetised currency being deposited in banks does not mean Demo was a disaster. Remember the following and watch out for some false arguments as well. 1/n
2. Remember PM Modi told us on 8 November 2016 that the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes with the corrupt will become worthless pieces of paper. Remember the govt told the Supreme Court that it did not expect 25%-30% of the demonetised currency to be destroyed. Well... 2/n
3. They will now say money coming into banks gives us an idea of who made large deposits and we can now catch the corrupt. Ask them how many of those who made large deposits have been identified, charged & punished since December 2016.The answer is not a single one 3/n
Read 8 tweets

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