Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Default

Most recents (21)

How the EU provides lifebelts for autocratic regimes
My latest piece published by @IPGJournal on the saga of #EU financial penalties for #Hungary and why the story will end with a weak compromise.
Key arguments in THREAD below 1/19
@gmfus @GoodLobbyProfs
ips-journal.eu/topics/democra…
2/19
Over the past two years the European Commission significantly improved its toolkit designed to enhance #RuleOfLaw & impose sanctions over Member States disregarding fundamental EU values.
3/19
The suspension of #ERRF/#RecoveryFund & the triggering of the #ConditionalityRegulation against Hungary’s government left the impression that the Commission drew its lessons from its decade long failure.
Read 21 tweets
Naturalmente, la possibile insolvenza di un debitore della dimensione degli Stati Uniti pone problemi anche ai suoi creditori.

- thread 🧵
2/. Il grafico riporta i dati alla fine del 2021 (in miliardi di dollari) dei principali undici debitori (istogrammi in rosso) e undici creditori mondiali (istogrammi in blu).

È immediato rilevare il precipizio debitorio che caratterizza gli Stati Uniti: Image
3/. il Paese nordamericano totalizza oltre diciotto mila miliardi di dollari di debiti verso il resto del mondo!

Si tratta di un importo pari al 78,7% del PIL USA.

In questo valore si legge bene l’accumularsi, a partire del 1976, di costanti saldi commerciali negativi.
Read 13 tweets
🔴 Editorial de #ElRégimenTuitero 🔴

Parece que finalmente aceptaron que no tenían cómo pagar el bono al vencerse en enero de 2023.

Emitir bonos nuevos pagando la tasa de referencia del bono de diez años gringo más un EMBI de alrededor del 24% es insostenible.
La puerta con el FMI estaba cerrada ante la negativa de Bukele de cumplir el requimiento del Fondo de derogar la ley #Bitcoin, y las fuentes alternas como el BCIE y el CAF tienen un límite. Para evitar un #default fuerte (un evento de impago desordenado) se han ido por un...
... Default Técnico (un default light) que es copy book de lo que hizo el gobierno peronista de Alberto Fernández hace año y pico.

El gobierno de Alberto Fernández se halló con una deuda enorme heredada de sus antecesores: emisiones de bonos que...
Read 24 tweets
#GM!
1/ #Lending and #Borrowing (LB) are the most primitive financial services. We will discuss how #DeFi LB solves and enables financial inclusivity with transparency but still maintain #privacy.

#Crypto #Cryptocurrency #Bitcoin #Ethereum #ETH #BTC #AVAX #BNB #SOL #visualguide
2/ In traditional #finance, the intermediaries are appointed banks or financial institutions that act as the bridge between the lender and borrower. All of these services are strictly regulated and monitored by the central #banks.
3/ Despite already existing for a long time, LB in traditional #finance has a long-standing problem: non-inclusive, stringent procedures, arduous verification process, low rate and approvals, and non-transparency.
Read 14 tweets
"Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time since 1918, pushed into delinquency not for lack of money but because of punishing Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine."

wsj.com/articles/sanct…
1/ "Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency #bonds as of late Sunday, according to holders of the bonds. The day marks the expiration of a 30-day grace period since the country was due to pay the equivalent of $100 million in dollars and euros to #bondholders."
2/ "Russia last failed to pay its foreign borrowing during the #BolshevikRevolution when #VladimirLenin, the newly installed communist leader, repudiated the debt of the Russian Empire."
Read 6 tweets
#Manes dice que celebra que muchos dirigentes hayan pensado en el país y NO ES SU PROYECTO PERSONAL o partidario.

Luego insiste que un hemisferio de su cerebro 🧠 cierre la grieta con el otro.

Luego @santiagofioritti “mete púa K”en #JxC

Qué dice @ManesF? Nosotros la #UCR…😁
¿Cómo algunos periodistas del @GrupoClarin pueden estar de acuerdo con el #default?

Ufff… Hum.. exhalaba @MaruDuffard justificando al Pdte. designado, cuando @MiguelPichetto procedió con su clase magistral sobre las implicancias.

Qué #LaCámpora apoyó el proyecto, che #Fioriti?
Read 4 tweets
El falso plebiscito binário instalado en el congreso: "aprobar este acuerdo o ir al default". Una trampa genial a días de un vencimiento imparable con el FMI.

Después de escuchar toda la exposición en comisión del día de ayer lunes y gran parte de la de hoy, reflexiones: (cont)
El ministro/profesor @Martin_M_Guzman se tomó dos ciclos lectivos anuales para negociar con el FMI y mientras pago los vencimientos por 4.5 mil mill dólares. La negociación en palabras de @MaximoKirchner_ fue llevada a cabo por el equipo económico y el presidente dejando (cont)
Afuera de la misma no solo a una parte relevante de la coalición gobernante sino sobretodo a la sociedad y sus fuerzas sociales y económicas. Los sindicatos, movimientos sociales y pymes deberían haber formado parte de un debate que apuntará no solo a saber como pagar (cont)
Read 13 tweets
@ACGeoEcon #Sanctions Dashboard is out. Surprise, it's all about #RussiaUkraine. We use #dataviz to compare sanctions across countries, how #Oligarchs are connected to each other and why freezing #reserves is driving #Russia towards default.🧵w gifs below.
atlanticcouncil.org/?p=496048&prev…
First, let's look at who has sanctioned what in #Russia since the #InvasionOfUkraine. The US and EU led the way. This is just entities and individuals. Keep going 👇
Next we turn to the big whopper, the freezing of 60% of #Russia's central bank reserves over night. #ruble is now at 120/USD. Analysts see credit #default trajectory. US couldn't do this alone with only 8.5%. This is international unity at play. Not done though!👇
Read 5 tweets
#war #Kyiv #Ukraine #Russia Collecting all reports thread; Ukraine's operational command says "cruise and ballistic missile strikes are underway at the control centres in Kyiv" from @lukeharding1968 Friends report explosions in #Kyiv, #Odessa #Kharkiv #Mykolaev thread, add info
Targets include airfields and military headquarters, operational command says
"Distant crumps - soft explosions - reported from west Kyiv, towards the airport. Not Cruise missiles, i think, but sounds like an attack on the airport." @JohnSweeney
Read 2780 tweets
Cara mudah mengakuisisi aset strategis milik Republik adalah dengan cara menjebaknya dengan hutang valas dan membiarkan nilai tukar Rupiah menjadi eksekutornya, tulisan saya 5 tahun yang lalu #hening @asboedionoid
Skema Pembiayaan menjadi Pintu masuk pengambilalihan aset strategis milik Republik dan kondisi seperti itu tetap saja dilakukan sampai sekarang, jika hutang valas @IndonesiaGaruda hal itu membuktikan Proses Pemgambil Alihan itu sedang terjadi #hening @asboedionoid
Gampang caranya dan tidak sulit, saya sudah memulis 5 tahun yang lalu, setelah @IndonesiaGaruda sebentar lagi ( bisa saja ) ~ PLN yang terlilit hutang diatas Rp. 500 Trilyun, kemudian Bank Plat Merah, Krakatau Steel bahkan BPJS diambil alih oleh Kreditornya #hening @asboedionoid
Read 22 tweets
1. Is financial market pricing in some heightened Taiwan Strait war risk this week? Yes, a little. No perfect measure. With China on holiday last wk, can attribute some pop of 5-yr CDS price as caused by heighted attention, which happens around Oct with back to back national days
2. To put in context, China 5 Yr CDS value is 48.87, reveals a 0.81% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed. US 5 Yr CDS is 17.4, reveals a 0.29% implied probability of default. Recent increase in US mostly by the debt ceiling fight. #MintTheCoin hahaha
3. @PredictIt betting market doesn't have a Taiwan specific market, but has 3 China related contracts. Betting on who would be confirmed for next US Ambassador to China, and Pres. Xi's chance of staying as party General Secretary for next 10 years.
Read 11 tweets
Did the #Irish Central Bank provide sovereign guarantees to buyers of Irish Bank Bonds and other contractual debt liabilities classified as fixed income securities, before the #GFC struck?
I asked this question after watching Professor Kelly on YouTube.
He was describing how the #Irish Central Bank allowed banks to import capital in large sums, and later lend it out to housing finance borrowers.
That created a severe #ALM Mismatch, as homes are not liquid assets.
Only after the #GFC, did the Irish and other banks realize that a run on the #deposits could lead to financial #insolvency.
#Ruin #Risk by definition is the gap between Unexpected #Loss and Expected Loss.
As the gap increases, the chances of financial ruin and #default rises too!
Read 7 tweets
#Conte sale al Quirinale per il #ConteTer, ma in parlamento non ottiene i voti. È l’ora del #GovernoDraghi.

L’ex presidente #Bce riceve l'incarico dal Presidente della repubblica, fa il suo discorso programmatico parlando di #generazioni future, di #produttività, #sostenibilità.
Umiltà e pragmatismo. Di #ZombieEconomics e #DebitoCattivo.

In Camera e Senato si spellano le mani, i giornali riportano commenti estasiati e prolisse biografie che iniziano dal collegio dei gesuiti per passare dal Britannia.

Il Paese è in #LunaDiMiele.
Honey moon con sondaggi pro Draghi che fanno invidia a Xi Jinping nel politburo.

Ottiene la fiducia con percentuali bulgare: lo ha votato tre quarti del parlamento. Uniche mosche bianche, guardate con spregio dai giornalisti in Transatlantico, sono solo un paio di partiti
Read 17 tweets
Thread
Nuova definizione di #default
Dal 1° gennaio 2021 entra in vigore la nuova definizione di default prevista dal Regolamento europeo relativo ai requisiti prudenziali per gli enti creditizi e le imprese di investimento.
La nuova definizione non modifica nella sostanza le segnalazioni alla Centrale dei Rischi, utilizzate dagli intermediari nel processo di valutazione del “merito di credito” della clientela.
Riguarda esclusivamente il modo con cui le banche e gli intermediari finanziari devono classificare i clienti a fini prudenziali, ossia ai fini del calcolo dei requisiti patrimoniali minimi obbligatori per le banche e gli intermediari finanziari.
Read 6 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
S&P Global Ratings provides an odyssey length bullet point journey through the global credit landscape here: spglobal.com/ratings/en/res… #CorporateCredit #Macro #Risks A few takeaways...1/4
2/4 Economic/Financial conditions & #credit outlooks...#US outlook, #Europe outlook...#Macro #Risks ImageImageImageImage
3/4 #EMs outlook...#Auto industry outlook...#Germany corporates outlook...2020 global corporate #defaults jump above total 2019 levels in 5 months led by the #US...#Macro #Risks ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Extraordinary times when a taxable #corporate issuer ($AMZN) can fund for three years at 40 basis points! Still, we don’t think there’s much of a chance of #default in three years and the short-term spread to comparable @USTreasury notes is reasonable, given present conditions. Image
But is this the right price to be funding companies longer-term, versus their long-term #earnings, and cash flow #yields available in #equity markets? Absolutely not! So, that suggests that the forward curves for many of the rates #markets are priced incorrectly, in our view.
We think all of this implies that balance in #portfolios is a harder and harder ideal to achieve, but over the intermediate- to long-term, is still one that’s well rewarded.
Read 3 tweets
I'm fascinated by how we can leverage evidence to inform behavior change. A thread based on literature & our #design of spaces & processes in high-stakes environments @AdvPerformHD @HumanFact0rz @ASPphysician @jyangstar 1/
2/ After the wkd, its clear some in Ontario are experiencing quarantine fatigue (bit.ly/2TFbbRw). Below are thoughts combining work from change management (amzn.to/3c2qWbx), behavior psych (bit.ly/3d0yIUp), risk perception (Kahneman) & #harmreduction
3/ Current state = #publichealth experts tell us that we cannot return to our previous way of life despite many who wish to do so. RESULT = need for substantial behaviour change. CHALLENGE = people don't like to change. #default & familiar behaviour is preferred
Read 17 tweets
Il fuoco di sbarramento in Italia contro il #Mes conferma i peggiori sospetti: che molti governanti non vogliono affatto fermare la corsa all’indebitamento: fino ad arrivare al default, a spese dei partner nell’#Euro. Risultato: lo #spread in rialzo, la zappa sui piedi.
Debiti mica per investire in istruzione, ricerca, infrastrutture, ma per carita’! Tutto in prepensionamento e Rdc che fa trovare 1000 posti di lavoro per 700mila beneficiati. Tanto secondo i Bagnai &Co la ricchezza si genera distribuendo helicopter money: Venezuela dixit.
Avanti verso il burrone.
Read 9 tweets
State Government Debt Risk - a history that repeats too often!

As the work on building Amravati, the new capital city AP, comes to a grinding halt, concerns emerge about Amravati (APCRDA) bonds held by Franklin MF (~Rs. 1000 Cr) and Birla MF (Rs. ~300 Cr). Thread 1/11
During the Chandrababu Govt, Amravati received political as well as financial patronage. Now, with Jagan Reddy being incharge of the state, the project is in shambles. World Bank & ADB pulled out of the project and the Government is looking for reasons to scrap it. 2/n
The bonds issued to support the financing needs of the project were subscribed by Franklin MF and Birla MF. The bonds are guaranteed by the AP Govt but it's not sure if the Govt would keep servicing the bonds. The risk of lending to a state govt has again come to the fore. 3/11
Read 19 tweets
La #TIR (Tasa Interna de Retorno) en escenarios de Default

Como sabemos, la TIR es la medida mas utilizada para la medición del rendimiento de los Bonos.

Sin embargo, hay casos donde no puede calcularse directamente contra el flujo de fondos del Prospecto del bono.
Uno de estos casos es el que estamos viviendo actualmente: el #Default.

El mercado opera los bonos asumiendo que:

1. No se pagará el flujo de fondo original
2. Habrá una negociación por #Canje de deuda, que demorará algunos años
3 Se Sufrirá un porcentaje de #Quita de Capital
En este caso, usar la TIR como medida de rentabilidad es un ejercicio matemático INGENUO, ya que pasa a ser una medida FICTICIA.

Entonces, ¿qué hacemos?

Principalmente dejar de medir con la TIR
Read 7 tweets

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