Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Deter
Most recents (6)
As #Kissinger shouted at 1969 football game, "On what theory?"
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…
An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:
Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
nytimes.com/1970/02/19/arc…
An alternative possibility—the "Ducks in a Row" approach:
Ambitious but failure averse, #Xi faces strong incentives to max forces before attempting one of (recent) history's greatest gambles.
"Ducks in a Row" model ≠ theoretical speculation.
#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).
DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."
>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu…
#Xi himself has charged #PLA w/ achieving 2027 "Centennial #Military Building Goal" (#建军一百年奋斗目标).
DoD: "this would provide Beijing w/ more credible military options in a #Taiwan contingency."
>>andrewerickson.com/2021/12/prc-pu…
"Ducks in a Row" model allows ZERO room for complacency.
#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.
But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.
#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward.
#Xi may well PREFER +-5 years more #PLA prep to attempt max-stakes mark on #history.
But many factors now in play, stakes high, margins thin.
#PRC rhetoric re @SpeakerPelosi trip suggests growing tensions moving forward.
Our Defence and Foreign Policy experts listen too much to conventional economic wisdom (and regurgitate it). Actually: (1) Accelerated economic reforms & privatization allows govt to focus budget on public goods like defence, ....2/ m.rediff.com/amp/news/inter…
2/ec .., instead of wasting it on projects and programs that private sec can do more efficiently. (2) Given the power asymmetry, the only way to #Deter #CCP #China is by convincing them that we are willing to bear the military & economic costs of resisting #aggression...3/
3/ec Any costs we bear,while reducing imports of Goods & services from China, besides hurting China, also enhances the credibility of #Deterrence. (3) India is 5th largest economy & will be 3rd largest in ~ 10 yrs. It's self-delusion to think this market is unimportant to China..
Pak attacks India,13x it's size fr 1/2C (🐂💩=>"contrary to silly calls for boycotting Chinese gds, India cannot disengage dependence on China."; "cost of militarily confronting an adversary whose econ is >5x & defence budget 4x ours wld b horrendous") m.hindustantimes.com/analysis/china…
2/Go The rest of the article is a good read as it explains in an understandable way, what many analysts have recomended
3/Go: History lesson: U can get away with #attacking an adversary(size 15x) using assymetric warfare & #super-power #backstop, If India is prepared to do same it can #Deter 2nd power very cost-effectively (as we are merely trying to defend our territory). Or raise defence budget
Words like, #containment & #constrainment, are useful for academic discussion, but don't constitute a #Strategy. Th objective of China strategy is, or must be, to Deter China's Imperialism on its land & sea borders. This doesn't exclude talking to it abt climate change or Covid19
2/fp #Deterring China, requires (besides economic & defence reform), bilateral & plurilateral, security, diplomatic & economic coalitions(with US, France, UK, Japan & Australia, EU etc.) Test is to #Deter China from attacking us again & again! https://t.co/j9stU19NfU
Capability to impose an Indian Ocean blockade on a nuclear armed enemy, has good #Deterrant value as the final conventional deterrent, below the nuclear threshold. The suggestions to shift the battle from Himalayas to the Indian Ocean are however, strategically ill considered
2/xxx Idea would be to #Deter China(by ability to cripple its oil imports & trade) from converting a hot border war into a full fledged war against Indian heartland(including by bringing a substantial part of its US-facing assets into Tibet+Xinjiang). #Deterrence=#NoWar in IO
3/xxx Sucessfull IO deterrence of kind indicated👆🏼, would mean fighting a cold war(not hot) in the littoral States and islands of Indian Ocean, which requires geoeconomics, geopolitics and diplomacy as much as, or more than, naval warfighting.
hearing—"#China's Worldwide #Military Expansion" is a dramatic bellwether of growing concerns in Washington & beyond.
Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
bit.ly/HouseIC
Now online—hard-hitting arguments + many data points, some deeply-analyzed yet hard to find elsewhere in public domain:
bit.ly/HouseIC
CAPT Jim Fanell, USN Ret, former @USPacificFleet N2:
"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
"today, the PLA Navy consists of over 330 surface ships & 66 submarines, nearly 400 combatants. As of 4 May 2018, the @USNavy consists of 283 battle force ships: 211 surface ships and 72 submarines."
bit.ly/HouseIC
"By 2030, it is estimated [by Fanell & @SCheneyPeters in their chapter in @NavalWarCollege @ChinaMaritime Studies Institute's Chinese Naval Shipbuilding volume amazon.com/Chinese-Naval-… @USNIBooks that] the PLANavy will consist of some 550 ships: 450 surface ships & 99 submarines."
