Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EUR

Most recents (24)

#XAUEUR
İşlem yaptığınız enstrümanları #USD bazlı izleyin ama diğer ülke kurlarına göre de bakın. Örnek; #Altın #USD ye karşı bir varlık gösteremiyor, ama; #EUR ya karşı çıkmış veya dik durmuştur.

Bunu izlersen sorgularsın. Neden? Niçin? Avrupa'nın başına bir iş mi gelecek ?
Soruları sıralarsın..
Altın EUR ya karşı değerlenecekse
EUR değer kaybediyor demektir. Sonuç ? DXY nin içinde en büyük pay EUR olduğuna göre demek ki DXY çıkacak
O zaman kim nasıl etkilenir ? DXY nereye nasıl bir baskı yapar ? vs vs.. Veya; tam tersi sorular. Avrupa toparlarsa
Yarın bir gün ons EUR ya karşı tam dirençtedir, aşağı baskı vardır. Dersinki; ya bunlar EUR yu pozitif bir haberle beslemesinler ? EUR yukarı yaparsa DXY düşer
bu coşku haberi olmasın ? Diğer yerler komple yükselişe geçmesin gibi..
Read 4 tweets
#BTC nin #USD grafiğine bakacağına millet
Açıp diğer ülke kurlarına göre baksalar, olayı zaten görürlerdi.

Ben size #EUR ya karşı atayım..

#EUR ya karşı bile trend dönüşü kritik dirençti..
Ben çıkıp bunları paylaşmıyorum. Paylaşsam derler ki; USD varken nelerle uğraşıyor vs vs
Bu iş merak işidir.. Hiç aklına gelmeyecek bir ülkenin paritesi bile sinyal üretir ANA yön hakkında..
Açıp bakın ne zararı var ?
#BTCJPY

Ben bunları para kazanmak için takip etmiyorum ki..
Merak ediyorum tamam #USD bazlı izliyoruz ama diğer ülkelere karşı ne yapıyor ? Al ne güzel sinyal..
ANA trendden dönmüş..
Read 4 tweets
#BTCUSD
Çizgilerimizde sıkıntı yoktur, nizami tek tek değiyor ve yavaşlıyor. En azından doğru çizgiler ile gittiğimizin kanıtıdır. 31.900 bölgesi de test edildi
Aşağıda bir den fazla ara destekleri vardır.
Oturur çizerim ama, çokta uğraşamam şuan vaktim yoktur.
Malum benim kendi işlemlerim de var ve hepsi başka yerlerdedir. Burası benim için sadece bir göstergeden ibarettir. Buralar kırılıyorsa zaten git gel hızlanır.
Satıcı alıcı kavgası fazlalaşır.
Zaten birileri olayın farkında ki #DXY satış yedi ve #EUR hemen 1.06 gitti..
Ama işte güçlü yapmıyorlar bu da riski geçirmiyor..
Read 4 tweets
It's weekend and it's the end of the month. The #markets are closed.

So there is the perfect time to analyze the #momentum & relative #strength of the markets.

This information is relevant for all #investors, but especially for #trend #followers 📈📈📈

#marketresearch

🧵
The #momentum of the markets are one of the most powerful forces in the evolution of the #asset #prices.

The #reversion to the mean is the opposite force, which is equally powerful. Momentum works on a short and medium term (up to 3 to 5 years).
There is a ton of academic research related to the momentum and the benefits of using it and relative strength. But presenting it this is not the purpose of this #thread.

Relative strength is actually a comparison between the #momentum of two or more #markets.
Read 35 tweets
İki senedir özellikle M.B ları anlaştı diyorum. (Majörler)
Para USD ye kayar. Ama; bu adamlar dünyayı ek bir filme erkenden sokmazlarsa ( Bunu da ileride sokacaklar) yatırımcının şu avantajı var. Paranın USD ye gitmemesi için, İngiltere devrede direk faiz arttırıyor. Avrupa'da
son hafta devreye girdi, ki; girmeseydi #EUR net pert olacaktı ve DXY FED öncesi durmazdı. Bunlar anlaştığı için, FED toplantısı öncesi DXY' yi ABD frenleyebilir mi? Frenleyemez ! Ne diyecek çıkıp? Önden toplantı mı yapacak korkmayın diye ! Mümkün değil. O halde ECB devreye girdi
Aslında burada ECB ne yaptı ? FED in üzerindeki yükü aldı ve onların toplantı tarihine kadar dünyayı tuttu. Burada hem FED'e süre kazandırdı, hem de biraz daha dünyayı tutabilirlerse, DXY nin daha risksiz bir yerde FED toplantıya girmesini sağladı..
Read 7 tweets
#EURUSD GÜNLÜK

Pandemi ile birlikte #FED #DXY yi baskıladı ve #EUR 1.23 gitti.. Orada FED zorlaması ile bir kaç ay geçiren EUR yeniden güç kaybetti ve 1.12 kadar gevşedi.
Bunlar yaşanırken gizli bir EL dünya piyasalarının bozulmasına müsaade etmedi. Image
Asıl gözler burada olmalıdır, çünkü; o gizli EL aynı 1.23 de bekletir gibi, EUR 1.12 1.14 bandında yatırarak zaman geçiriyor. Dünyada kilidi burası çözer.
Kırıldığı yöne dikkat.. 1.12 altı problemdir.
Son oluşan mumlara baktığınızda, zaten birilerinin keyfini bekliyorum der gibi, yan yanalar. Genel sağda solda, her yerin hacimsiz kalmasının veya bant hareketi yapmasının ana nedeni budur.
Read 4 tweets
#EUR Crosses & dovish #ECB:
▪️ EURUSD claims next big fig; on 1.13-handle; most FX stronger vs EUR (chart vs Nov FOMC)
▪️ ECB to increase upper limit for cash as collateral for Securities Lending (75 to 150bn)
▪️ LAGARDE: Conditions for rate hike very unlikely to be met 2022

1/8 ImageImage
f/e Euro bond futures lower on doubling of limit to 150bn for cash as collateral=>possible easing of collateral shortage in repo mkt

But last utilization only 15.5bn (Sep monthly avg) & peak daily util 40.8bn (Jun21)

FYG
DU Euro Schatz ~2y
OE - Euro Bobl ~5y
RX - Euro Bund ~10y Image
Lagarde:
▪️ pandemic challenge isn't over yet
▪️ energy >50% of headline inflation
▪️ inflation boost from reversal of German VAT cut to fall out of calculations from Jan22
▪️ wage growth next yr potentially rising somewhat more...but risk of second-round effects remains limited Image
Read 8 tweets
Role of #USD & #EUR in Global Monetary System:

[Charts from ECB Paper: 'International Role of Euro']

#Dollar continues to dominate FX Reserves, International Debt, Loans, Deposits, FX Turnover & Global payments

1/7
FX Transactions settled in CLS System (Continuous Linked Settlement)

▪️ USD led FX market => involved in ~90% of all settlements in Dec'20
▪️ EUR second most actively settled ccy

2/7
FX Share in Global FX RESERVES:

Sub-thread below

3/7
Read 7 tweets
MUFG 1/5: #EUR: Brighter vaccination prospects ahead in #Europe?
Chart highlights a notable acceleration across key EU countries that will greatly improve optimism over a faster pace of #vaccination roll-outs. France has seen a pickup with over 0.5mn vaccines administered on Fri
MUFG 2/5: a one-day record. In Germany on Thursday, 719k vaccines were administered while in Italy the 7-day average of administered vaccines hit 200k for the first time over the weekend.
MUFG 3/5: Former French Finance Minister and EU vaccine coordinator, Thierry Breton confirmed an “extremely rapid increase” in vaccine production in the EU that leaves the EU on track for vaccinating 70% of adults by July.
Read 5 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP: We would like to go short $EURGBP again if increases continue. Keep an eye on Northern Ireland riots and Scottish Parliament election on 6 May

#USDJPY - spot starting to be priced as it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot.
Read 4 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #Eurozone: Waiting for the European phoenix
1Q21 will not be remembered as the finest hours of European politics. The glacial roll-out of vaccination programmes and the ‘crown jewel’ of the EU’s fiscal stimulus – the EU’s €750bn Recovery Fund –
ING Bank 2/4: is gathering dust in a Karlsruhe courtroom stand in stark contrast to the achievements in the US. Yet all is not lost. European manufacturing is holding up well and there are signs of life in the EU vaccine roll-out.
ING Bank 3/4: Our #EURUSD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the #EUR to arise from the ashes of European policy. It should be in a position to challenge 1.25 – though probably not now until the third quarter.
Read 4 tweets
Rabobank 1/9: #CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
Speculators’ net #USD positions held in positive territory for the 4th consecutive week, though overall size dropped moderately along with the softer tone of the greenback in the spot market. Previous to this the market had not had
Rabobank 2/9: a run of net long positions since June 2020. The USD has been one of the best performing G10 currencies this year reflecting reflation optimism and a shift in expectations regarding Fed rates policy.

#EUR net longs dropped to their lowest level since March 2020.
Rabobank 3/9: Concerns about the speed of the vaccine roll-out programme in #Eurozone have been constraining expectations regarding the economic recovery in the region as fears about a third wave spread. ECB has brought forward bond purchases to push down the level of bond yields
Read 9 tweets
Citibank 1/11: Week Ahead – key data/ events:
#USD: CPI MoM – Citi: 0.6%, median: 0.5%, prior: 0.4%; CPI YoY – Citi: 2.7%, median: 2.5%, prior: 1.7%; PI ex Food, Energy MoM – Citi: 0.2%, median: 0.2%, prior: 0.1%; CPI ex Food, Energy YoY – Citi: 1.6%, median: 1.5%, prior: 1.3%
Citibank 2/11: - Citi analysts expect a solid increase of 0.23%MoM in core CPI in March with upside risk for many components. The team expects March to show the start of price gains for a number of components that have been held down by soft demand.
Citibank 3/11: Retail Sales – Citi: 6.3%, median: 5.4%, prior: -3.0%; Retail Sales ex Auto – Citi: 4.9%, median: 4.8%, prior: -2.7%; Retail Sales ex Auto, Gas – Citi: 4.9%, median: 6.3%, prior: -3.3%; Retail Sales Control Group – Citi: 4.7%, median: 6.9%, prior: -3.5% -
Read 11 tweets
Thread: This phrase should be sculpted on the #ECB building and both #EU and national parliament. However, it's only partially correct. @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @dlacalle_IA @bondstrategist @bondstrategist @AlessandroPonz4 @jeuasommenulle @DiMartinoBooth
First, it must be said clearly that while Economist use math, it's a humanistic discipline and not a "science" when taken as a whole, no matter how much you stuff the syllabus with difficult scientific courses.(/)
Anyone involved in the Banking regulation, while quite probably won't admit it under physical torture, would admit that the more "improved" according to "innovation" it got the more difficult it has been to ward off the system from collapsing.(/)
Read 12 tweets
#EUR Thread: Ok, facciamoci del male:

1. l'Euro non è irreversibile.
2. l'euro NON è il motivo per cui siamo andati così male rispetto agli altri.

Entrambi sono costruzioni politiche con risposte politiche. (/) @nglinsman @LorenaLVilla
Se pressato, direi che quando si parla di "Euro irreversibile" ci sono degli assunti non scritti, principale dei quali è una certa "morbidità" del passaggio che è, a mia opinione, impossibile. (/)
Nessuno, ai tempi delle Grecia quando eravamo noi ad avere paura che loro uscissero, era in gradi di rispondere quando chiedevo "Come?". c'erano giganteschi salti della fede, normalmente... quali quello di pensare che sia fisicamente impossibile. (/)
Read 9 tweets
THREAD: The greatest irony is this: Imagine that instead of "whatever it takes", the #ECB had told the politicians imperiling the #EUR this: (/)
@nglinsman @amlivemon @pboockvar @amlivemon
In that case, government bond yields would have been the cushioning variable, instead of #ECB balance sheet. BUT, that in practical terms transfers money from the government coffers to savers.(/)
Conversely, when and if a savvy managers takes power, he gets a DOUBLE positive whammy: State P&L improves, and then improves again due to lower debt service costs.(/)
Read 5 tweets
DBS Private Bank 1/4: #EUR is capped at 1.21 or its 20-day moving average after it bounced off its 50D MA at 1.1975 last Friday. While debate has started about stimulus and overheating in the US, the European Central Bank has sought to reassure that the EU recovery is delayed
DBS Private Bank 2/4: and not derailed. EU sentix investor confidence turned negative again at -0.2% in February from 1.5% (the only positive post-Covid 19 reading) in January. ECB President Christine Lagarde told the European Parliament that economic activities face significant
DBS Private Bank 3/4: downside risks from the coronavirus, its new variants, the lockdowns and the slow rollout of vaccines. She played down the rise in inflation in January and stressed the need to keep stimulus in place into and after the recovery.
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights:
#USDJPY remains capped as expected at our first objective of 200-day average and November high at 105.59/75 and a pause is looked for here. Big picture,with a bullish “wedge” & “reversal month” in place we continue to look for a break
Credit Suisse 2/5: in due course, with the “wedge objective” at 106.95/107.05.

#AUDUSD reverted sharply higher from the 55-day average, posting a bullish “reversal day” and is now pressuring against the “neckline” to its top at .7683.
CS 3/5: #EURUSD has posted a bullish “reversal day” from our 1.1945/14 tget – 23.6% retraceme of entire 2020/21 rally – & we continue to look for a near-term recovery from here.
We continue to watch #EUR in outright terms closely though as an important top may be close to forming
Read 5 tweets
Rabobank 1/8: #CFTC #CommitmentofTraders Report:
Net #USD short positions were little changed last week though a modest increase was recorded. Net shorts remain near recent highs and are therefore not reflecting this year’s improved performance of the USD in the spot market.
Rabobank 2/8: Focus is on the size of the Biden fiscal giveaway and the relative success of vaccine roll-out programmes. Rising inflation expectations appear out of kilter with the Fed’s very cautious tone.
#EUR net longs dropped back sharply. In spot market it appears that
Rabobank 3/8: the EUR is being undermined by the slow vaccine roll-out programme in the EU. This is supporting talk that the region could fall behind in the reflation trade.
Net #GBP long positions edged higher but remain below recent highs.
Read 8 tweets
Please tell me if I get the big picture on #Eurozone #QuantitativeEasing right.

1. The EU is a historical political project
2. The #ECB is a child of that project and understandably protects it until its last breath
3. Protecting it means
a) ensuring no member to go bust
b) sovereign spreads to remain at a managable levels

4. These in turn requires heavy purchases of sovereign bonds, on a scale that can only be done with newly created money #M0 i.e. #QE.
5. That money inevitably blows a bubble on nearly all markets of investable assets
6. ...which side effect the ECB does not like but sees no alternative to keep the Eurozone together
7. ECB also needs to keep printing money as #FED is printing money too, and the #EUR would otherwise appreciate, creating huge competitiveness problems for the entire Eurozone.
Read 4 tweets
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
Read 56 tweets
French PMI - Ouch!!
#EUR does not like it either. Crash could set in from here!
German PMI - Ouch!!
Read 4 tweets
#Deflation unfolding - but as in all moves - we will always see counter-moves or corrections. Last week was such a correction. We must not drop our guard! The economic situation is dire and we are not through the illiquid phase. Major developments ahead! Stay tuned for #HZupdates
It is all about #USD. Last week was a retracement in the new strong spike for #DXY = wave ii (blue). Within days, DXY will likely start strong rally higher - reaching min. 109 within weeks. End target will be reached later this year ~122 #HZupdates
The rally in #DXY is caused by extreme USD shortage. #EURUSD will feel the strength. In fact, it seems to me, that we are about to see a very strong decline in EURUSD within days/weeks to ~0.97-0.98 before a sideways bounce. LT-target remains the same: ~0.85 to be reached this yr
Read 20 tweets
"Something is Breaking!" and we are going to see decades worth of developments in the span of few weeks or months. #Coronavirus has been the trigger of the #Deflation, I have been expecting for so long. It is now here! Stay tuned for #HZupdates to get my view on markets
"Something is Breaking" has been taken from zerohedge.com/markets/someth…. We are observing an extreme USD Shortage developing fast and it is going to cause a wild #DXY rally the coming weeks & months. Chart of FRA/OIS provides overview of the severity of the developing USD shortage
My #DXY model supports this macro outlook exactly. Correction from late 2019 has concluded and DXY will now explode higher in 5 impulsive waves higher to target ~111. I expect this move to reach target ~Mid-2020. The consequences of a strong DXY will be wide-spread. #Deflation
Read 15 tweets

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