Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EURUSD

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Macro Analysis of FX. Putting my erstwhile FX trader hat on to analyze what is happening with global markets.

I see the #CrudeOil move, #EURUSD move as a flight to safety move into USD.

I'm trying to explain the causation of flow in below thread ­čžÁ

1/n
What all is losing ground against #USD?
#CrudeOil ­čö╗8.32%
#EURUSD ­čö╗1.77%
#GBPUSD ­čö╗1.49%
#Gold ­čö╗2.1%
#BTC ­čö╗2.7%

All these are being sold against USD. The money doesn't leave the system. So where does it go?

In risk-off environment it goes to safe havens such as:
2/n
#USD, #CHF, #JPY, Long-Dated US bonds (30Y) & #GOLD.

While some G10 FX pairs have lost upwards of 1.5%, both safe-haven currencies of JPY(­čö╗0.11%) and CHF (­čö╗0.89%) are seen relatively stable when compared to other G10.

US30Y Yields are down (bonds are up) by­čö╗4%.
3/n
Read 7 tweets
D├╝nya geneli hacimleri ├žok d├╝┼č├╝r├╝yorlar.
Bu da bir taktiktir, zaman ├žal─▒yorlar s├╝rekli.

Zaman─▒ ni├žin ├žalarlar ? S├╝re├žleri uzatmak, ikna etmek b─▒kt─▒rmak i├žin. B─▒kanlar veya sabr─▒n─▒ kontrol edemeyenleri oyun d─▒┼č─▒ b─▒rak─▒yorlar.
Ons alt─▒n may─▒s ay─▒ndan beri ayn─▒ yerde
Sa─ča sa─ča gidiyor mumlar. Bu ne demek ? Faizler yatay
Faizler ne zaman yatay olur ? Bir olay olmadan a┼ča─č─▒da k─▒ram─▒yor yukar─▒ da. Demek ki d├╝nyay─▒ y├Ânetenler piyasalar─▒n yatmas─▒n─▒ vakit ge├žirmesini istiyorlar.
Yana yana gidiyor. Bir olay olacak kapsaml─▒ ki bir y├Âne hareket gelsin.. Kitlemi┼čler piyasalar─▒ kapat─▒p gitmi┼č gibiler.
Read 9 tweets
#Fragmentation

1) Son toplant─▒da ├Âne ├ž─▒kan bu kelimeyi daha s─▒k duyaca─č─▒z gibi.­čĄö

Avrupa Merkez Bankas─▒ Y├Ânetim Konseyi bug├╝n "mevcut piyasa ko┼čullar─▒n─▒ tart─▒┼čma" amac─▒na ├Âzg├╝ bir toplant─▒ karar─▒ ald─▒. Takvimde daha ├Ânce yer almayan bu g├Âr├╝┼čme yak─▒ndan izleniyor.
2) ├ľncelikle #fragmentation kavram─▒n─▒n ne anlama geldi─čine bakal─▒m o h├ólde:

T├╝rk├že olarak "par├žalar─▒na ayr─▒lma, b├Âl├╝nme" ┼čeklinde ifade edebilece─čimiz bu kavram #ECB a├ž─▒s─▒ndan para politikas─▒n─▒n aktar─▒m mekanizmas─▒nda bozulma i┼čaretidir ki bu da politikan─▒n etkisini azaltabilir.
3) A┼ča─č─▒daki grafikte 10 y─▒ll─▒k devlet tahvillerinin getirilerine yer verdim.

#Almanya en altta ve siyah e─čriyle belirtilirken #Yunanistan mavi, #─░talya k─▒rm─▒z─▒, #─░spanya sar─▒ ve #Portekiz ye┼čil ile g├Âsterilmi┼čtir ve ayr─▒┼čmaya daha ├Ânce dikkat ├žekmi┼čtim.

#PIGS #Yields #Spread
Read 11 tweets
#EURUSD de ne yapt─▒lar ? Yani; bir nevi #DXY de..
A┼ča─č─▒daki twiti oku, mavi ├žizgi riskini habersiz ge├žirmezler. Nereden d├Ând├╝ #EURUSD 1.0778 civar─▒ !
├ťst├╝ kalsayd─▒ hop 1.10 masadayd─▒ ve piyasalar canlan─▒rd─▒.
Bak─▒n ne yapt─▒lar ? Ayn─▒ bant i├ži tuttu ve gene direnci ayn─▒ b├Âlgeye denk getirdiler.
Mavi ├žizginin hemen alt─▒na ald─▒lar ve kontrol bizde dediler. #EURUSD Image
Burada fiyat ├Ânemli de─čil !
K─▒r─▒l─▒ma sokuyor seni ! K─▒r─▒l─▒ma soktu mu ? Git ┼čimdi ABD borsalar─▒na bak, onu bask─▒lad─▒lar her yeri ona paralel a┼ča─č─▒ ald─▒lar ve kendilerini yine ayn─▒ b├Âlgeye ├žektiler.
Ama di─čer enstr├╝manlar a┼ča─č─▒da kald─▒..
Read 8 tweets
#EURUSD AYLIK

Putin Putin..

Eyl├╝le kadar uzatmay─▒n ┼ču i┼či..

D├╝nya sizi bekliyor..
#EURUSD HAFTALIK
Read 4 tweets
#DXY H4
105 den beri d├╝┼č├╝┼č e─čilimi var, ama; 100 b├Âlgesine gelince yava┼člamalar g├Âr├╝l├╝yor. Normal kar┼č─▒lanmal─▒d─▒r sebebi; d├╝z rakamlar her zaman psikolojik s─▒n─▒rlard─▒r.
Piyasa olaya, 100 ├╝st├╝ veya alt─▒ gibi bakar ve destekleyecek haber ister. Bana birileri yard─▒mc─▒ olsun der.
Yani piyasa veya yat─▒r─▒mc─▒ ┼č├Âyle d├╝┼č├╝n├╝r..
Ben teknik olarak buraya kadar geldim, ama; buralar art─▒k psikolojik olarak hareketlenme yerleridir ve itici veya dengeleri de─či┼čtirecek, bir olay haber laz─▒m kendi ba┼č─▒m─▒za ortada kal─▒r─▒z.
#EURUSD H4
EUR nun 1.03 den ba┼člayan y├╝kseli┼čine bakt─▒─č─▒n─▒zda
Mavi ├žizgi de bir trend var, geldi trende yasland─▒
Bu trend 1.10 giden yolu a├ž─▒yor, piyasada kendi ba┼č─▒na
hareket edemiyor, ├ž├╝nk├╝; dengeler sars─▒l─▒r.
D├╝nde dedim haber laz─▒m. Habersiz mavi ├žizgi alt─▒ riskini ge├žirmez
Read 4 tweets
#DXY H4

May─▒s ay─▒ boyunca d├╝┼č├╝┼č e─čilimi vard─▒.. Bunu piyasalar─▒ canland─▒rmadan veya hissettirmeden yapt─▒lar.
Pariteler ├╝zerinden yapt─▒lar. #EUR g├╝├žlenmeye devam ediyor. Image
#EURUSD H4
Burada hacim yapam─▒yorlar. Yaparlarsa piyasalar direk canlan─▒r. Bu bant i├žinde vakit ge├žire ge├žire oyun kuruyorlar. Bu sebeple risk masada hep tutuyorlar.
Riskin ge├žti denmesi i├žin maj├Âr bir haberle desteklenmesi laz─▒md─▒r. Desteklenmezse zaman ge├žire ge├žire giderler. Image
1.0778 kritik virajda #Eurusd Image
Read 9 tweets
#DXY H4

D├╝nyan─▒n ne kadar adaletsiz y├Ânetildi─čini g├Âr├╝n.
Bu fiyatlar─▒, yaz─▒l─▒m m─▒ dersiniz ? Robot mu dersiniz ?
Algoritma m─▒ dersiniz ? Ad─▒n─▒ ne koyarsan koy !
Nas─▒l y├Ânetiyorlar !
Sen ekran kar┼č─▒s─▒nda kendini y─▒rt ! Adamlar─▒n keyfi gelmeden olmuyor. Image
#EURUSD

DXY yi yukar─▒da kilitliyor mu ? EUR ne yap─▒yor ?
Nerede frenliyorlar ! ├çizgiyi a┼čsa, A dan Z ye her yer hareketlenir.

B─▒rakt─▒klar─▒ yere bak─▒n ! Ka├ž saattir bu b├Âyle, biliyor musunuz ? 32 saat.. Image
K─▒saca; diyorlar ki, sizin bu d├╝nya ├╝zerinde bir h├╝km├╝n├╝z yoktur.
Biz istersek diyor fiyatlar iner ├ž─▒kar, istemezsek ├Âyle ekrana bakar bakar durursunuz diyor.
Bu dili ni├žin kullan─▒yorum biliyor musunuz?
Bilin ger├žekleri, g├Âr├╝nt├╝ler orada piyasa yerinden bile
oynatam─▒yor.
Read 10 tweets
Piyasalar─▒ ├Âyle g├╝zel silkeliyorlar ki
EURUSD ye asla dokunmuyorlar.
1.06 yukar─▒ a┼č─▒rm─▒yorlar
1.04 05 a┼ča─č─▒ k─▒rd─▒rm─▒yorlar.

Kriptolar ilk ├ž─▒kt─▒─č─▒nda da Eur 1.20 1.23 de beklettiler.
Asla a┼ča─č─▒ kirdirmad─▒lar.
Bu da #DXY yi 89 92 de hapsetmi┼čti..
┼×uan Eur yapt─▒klar─▒n─▒n aynisi
K─▒saca; O d├Ânem #DXY yi 89 92 de hapsettiler,
millet kripto als─▒n diye ! Ki, bu teknik olarak m├╝mk├╝n de─čildi ama, yapt─▒lar. ┼×uanda da 101 104 de hapsediyorlar millet silkelensin diye..
Halbuki bak─▒yorsun DXY hep sakin ve ayn─▒ yerdedir.
Baz─▒lar─▒ soruyor, bu para nereye gidiyor ?
O d├Ânemde de b├Âyleydi, DXY ├ž─▒k─▒yor, ama; kriptolar d├╝┼čm├╝yordu. Hep piyasa da gizli, ekstra bir para var diyorduk veya bir el kimse anlam─▒yordu..
Read 11 tweets
#BTCUSD
├çizgilerimizde s─▒k─▒nt─▒ yoktur, nizami tek tek de─čiyor ve yava┼čl─▒yor. En az─▒ndan do─čru ├žizgiler ile gitti─čimizin kan─▒t─▒d─▒r. 31.900 b├Âlgesi de test edildi
A┼ča─č─▒da bir den fazla ara destekleri vard─▒r.
Oturur ├žizerim ama, ├žokta u─čra┼čamam ┼čuan vaktim yoktur.
Malum benim kendi i┼člemlerim de var ve hepsi ba┼čka yerlerdedir. Buras─▒ benim i├žin sadece bir g├Âstergeden ibarettir. Buralar k─▒r─▒l─▒yorsa zaten git gel h─▒zlan─▒r.
Sat─▒c─▒ al─▒c─▒ kavgas─▒ fazlala┼č─▒r.
Zaten birileri olay─▒n fark─▒nda ki #DXY sat─▒┼č yedi ve #EUR hemen 1.06 gitti..
Ama i┼čte g├╝├žl├╝ yapm─▒yorlar bu da riski ge├žirmiyor..
Read 4 tweets
Precision in market timing & proper position sizing is a 90% determinant for the success of my leveraged trades!

ThereÔÇÖs simply no other ways around this ­čÜÇ

#SnP500 #VIX
#NQ1 A highly probable roadmap for the coming weeks; but if this looks too obvious to you, my word of caution is that it'll be 20x the opposite in real-time especially when dealing with your open leveraged positions in the lower time-frames...

#MarketTiming
#PositionSizing Image
#NQ1 roadmap updated; #NotThereYet
#Nasdaq100 #QQQ Image
Read 44 tweets
#EURUSD G├ťNL├ťK

Pandemi ile birlikte #FED #DXY yi bask─▒lad─▒ ve #EUR 1.23 gitti.. Orada FED zorlamas─▒ ile bir ka├ž ay ge├žiren EUR yeniden g├╝├ž kaybetti ve 1.12 kadar gev┼čedi.
Bunlar ya┼čan─▒rken gizli bir EL d├╝nya piyasalar─▒n─▒n bozulmas─▒na m├╝saade etmedi. Image
As─▒l g├Âzler burada olmal─▒d─▒r, ├ž├╝nk├╝; o gizli EL ayn─▒ 1.23 de bekletir gibi, EUR 1.12 1.14 band─▒nda yat─▒rarak zaman ge├žiriyor. D├╝nyada kilidi buras─▒ ├ž├Âzer.
K─▒r─▒ld─▒─č─▒ y├Âne dikkat.. 1.12 alt─▒ problemdir.
Son olu┼čan mumlara bakt─▒─č─▒n─▒zda, zaten birilerinin keyfini bekliyorum der gibi, yan yanalar. Genel sa─čda solda, her yerin hacimsiz kalmas─▒n─▒n veya bant hareketi yapmas─▒n─▒n ana nedeni budur.
Read 4 tweets
¿Tienes un plan para tu capital cuándo el ciclo alcista crypto no sea tan fuerte?

Si la respuesta es no este hilo te interesa Image
Como muchos sab├ęis soy trader desde hace m├ís de 6 a├▒os y lo que mas sigo operando son los CFD's

Estos mercados te permiten apalancarte, ajustar un lotaje de riesgo y lo más importante comprar y vender cualquier activo
Los CFD's son contratos por diferencia, os dejo el link a la primera parte del curso que estoy terminando

Introducci├│n al Trading de CFD's tridentetrading.com/courses/introdÔÇŽ

Esto significa que pueden graficar cualquier mercado y t├║ puedes beneficiarte de sus subidas y bajadas
Read 16 tweets
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: TodayÔÇÖs highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 ÔÇô the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURGBP not maintains a base above .8643/65 as well as a bullish ÔÇťreversal weekÔÇŁ and we look for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.

#GBPUSD above 1.3783 would see a minor base complete to suggest the trend is shifting sideways.
Read 5 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
Danske Bank 2/4: #EURSEK - The krona firmly defied last week's substantial dividend payouts, in line with our expectation. Focus shifts to this week's inflation data. We expect #EURSEK to re-establish the 10.10-10.20 range for now.
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP: We would like to go short $EURGBP again if increases continue. Keep an eye on Northern Ireland riots and Scottish Parliament election on 6 May

#USDJPY - spot starting to be priced as it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot.
Read 4 tweets
ING Bank 1/4: #Eurozone: Waiting for the European phoenix
1Q21 will not be remembered as the finest hours of European politics. The glacial roll-out of vaccination programmes and the ÔÇścrown jewelÔÇÖ of the EUÔÇÖs fiscal stimulus ÔÇô the EUÔÇÖs ÔéČ750bn Recovery Fund ÔÇô
ING Bank 2/4: is gathering dust in a Karlsruhe courtroom stand in stark contrast to the achievements in the US. Yet all is not lost. European manufacturing is holding up well and there are signs of life in the EU vaccine roll-out.
ING Bank 3/4: Our #EURUSD profile is slightly dimmed, but we still expect the #EUR to arise from the ashes of European policy. It should be in a position to challenge 1.25 ÔÇô though probably not now until the third quarter.
Read 4 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: #EURUSD finished last week slightly below 1.19, having rallied since Easter. This week, focus will likely turn to US inflation, which is set to accelerate towards 2.5% as well as a number of #Fed speeches.
#forex #forextrade #forextrading #fxstreet #trading
Danske Bank 2/4: Naturally, market will also focus if dollar weakness can be sustained further. With inflation set to rise and the theme of repricing yields having stalled, there may be scope for Fed to push the dollar lower here.
Danske Bank 3/4: In our base case, though, we see levels above 1.19 as good for selling #EURUSD.
#EURGBP continues to trade below 0.87 amid AstraZeneca issues, lower vaccine deliveries, Northern Ireland riots and the upcoming Scottish Parliament election on 6 May.
Read 4 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: #EURUSD remains unable to clear its 200d avge & strength stays seen as corrective #EURUSD remains unable to clear its 200d avge, now at 1.1896 & our bias remains to view recent strength as just a corrective recovery following the fall to our 1.1695 first core Image
Credit Suisse 2/5: downside target. Supp for a setback remains seen at 1.1867/60 initially, below which can see a small top complete to ease the immediate upside bias for a fall back to 1.1823/22, which we look to hold initially. Below 1.1795/87 though is needed to confirm a more
Credit Suisse 3/5: decisive rejection of the 200-day average has been seen, clearing the way for a move back to 1.1737, then a retest of 1.1703/1.1695.
A sustained move above 1.1896 can see strength extend to the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2021 fall at 1.1948/50,
Read 5 tweets
Credit Suisse 1/5: TodayÔÇÖs #Forex highlights
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish ÔÇťreversal weekÔÇŁ established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #GBPUSD maintains a bearish ÔÇťreversal dayÔÇŁ to keep the risk lower in its range with supp seen at 1.3641, then 1.3514.

#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURUSD continues to struggle to clear its 200-day average at 1.1896 and the current strength stays seen as a temporary and corrective move higher.
Read 5 tweets
KBC Bank 1/4: The economic calendar contains US CPI today. Consensus lies at 1.5% y/y for both headline and core measures. Inflation is gradually becoming a topic in markets thinking with US market-based inflation expectations reaching ever higher levels.
KBC Bank 2/4: For today however, the reading probably wonÔÇÖt have a dramatic impact. We more look forward to US 10-yr bond sale later today. Will the recent rise in long rates suffice to offset the increased inflation (and perhaps sovereign credit) risks markets see to the fiscal
KBC Bank 3/4: and monetary abundancy? A smooth auction would probably ease such fears. This could solidify the 1.2% (10-yr) and 2% (30-yr) technical resistance areas, but only for the short term. It could keep the USD in a less beneficial position as well,
Read 4 tweets
KBC Bank 1/4: The big reflation trade took a moment to catch its breath yesterday. Circumstances were ideal with no important data scheduled to trigger abrupt market moves. Equities finished broadly unchanged after erasing earlier losses, both in the EMU and the US.
KBC Bank 2/4: Core bond yields traded choppy and below recent (recovery) highs. The US kicked off its bond sales with 3yr tenor. The auction went smoothly but didnÔÇÖt impact markets. US Treasuries edged higher at the long end of the curve, sending rates marginally lower driven by
KBC 3/4: the real yield component. German yields ended a volatile trading day flat. Peripheral yield spreads widened just 1 bps. #USD traded on the back foot even as risk sentiment was fragile. #EURUSD took out intermediate resist around 1.208 to finish session north of 1.21again
Read 4 tweets
UOB Group 1/4: #EURUSD: Further sideway-trading would not be surprising even though the slightly firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 1.2030/1.2085.

#GBPUSD: underlying tone still appears to be positive & there is chance for GBP to edge above 1.3760. That said, next
UOB 2/4: resist at 1.3800 is not expected to come into the picture. On downside,1.3680 low is acting as a solid support and is unlikely to come under threat (1.3710 is already quite a strong level).

#AUDUSD: Upward momentum is beginning to improve and AUD could edge above 0.7730
UOB 3/4: For today, next resist at 0.7765 is likely out of reach. Supp is at 0.7685 followed by 0.7660.

#NZDUSD: Upward momentum has improved & risk is for NZD to move higher. 0.7250 is a solid resist & NZD may not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. Supp is at 0.72
Read 4 tweets
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical #FX Views:
#EURUSD - s/t risk is symmetric after the correction in spot. We remain short via 6M seagull, as per our 2021 top trade.

#EURNOK - We remain short but turn increasingly wary of signs of peak potential.
Danske Bank 2/4: Watch broad USD, oil prices, USD real rates and the global reflation theme as indicators for when sentiment could turn.

#EURSEK - remains close to our 1M target of 10.10 as the #Riksbank constitutes a non-event
Danske Bank 3/4: #EURGBP - we remain short $EURGBP but it may take a breather near-term

#USDJPY - $USDJPY took starting to be priced like it was pre-corona as US yields and oil now move spot. Strength of downtrend is fading in line with #USDCNH momentum.
Read 4 tweets

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