Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EURef2
Most recents (11)
Looong extension ahoy!
A major headache for the EU
A major headache for the EU
Let's assume EUCO today doesn't talk extensions, because Johnson doesn't ask for one
That means if Saturday happens, and amendment succeeds, EU will be asked for 3mth extension, but knowing #EURef2 likely
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That means if Saturday happens, and amendment succeeds, EU will be asked for 3mth extension, but knowing #EURef2 likely
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Ref'm needs a good 9 months to sort primary legislation, designation, campaigning, dealing with outcome, etc.
@ConUnit_UCL reckon 6 months at breakneck: ucl.ac.uk/constitution-u…
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@ConUnit_UCL reckon 6 months at breakneck: ucl.ac.uk/constitution-u…
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While I'm stuck in the traffic (on the bus, road-safety fans) to the airport, let's think a bit about how best to secure various Brexit outcomes
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You'll recall there are only 3 options here:
- leave with a deal
- leave without a deal
- don't leave (ie revoke)
Plus, the old favourite, seek an extension
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- leave with a deal
- leave without a deal
- don't leave (ie revoke)
Plus, the old favourite, seek an extension
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What's the most reliable way to each of these?
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This is an important one, so let's run through it
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Headline is another request for extension to art.50, this time to 30 June 2019.
Aim is to complete MV4/WAIB process by 22.5, so can leave on that date (i.e. ahead of #EP19)
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Aim is to complete MV4/WAIB process by 22.5, so can leave on that date (i.e. ahead of #EP19)
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This time is needed for on-going negotiations with LAB and then Parliamentary process
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Right, let's see if we can't work out what the impact of yesterday was:
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I'd open by noting that even after a sleep no-one seems very confident about how it could play out, which suggests that if there's a cunning plan behind it, then it's very cunning, and thus liable to not work
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The most obvious impact is that it complicates No.10's route 1 - MV3- and so makes it less likely
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Briefly, on the EU27 agreeing to an extension:
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EU is open to idea of an extension, to avoid no-deal.
BUT it needs a purpose for that extra time
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BUT it needs a purpose for that extra time
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Obvious examples include:
- a few weeks for wrapping up ratification;
- some months for a GE;
- some more months for a #EUref2
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- a few weeks for wrapping up ratification;
- some months for a GE;
- some more months for a #EUref2
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NEW: Mega poll of 25,000 people by @YouGov for the @peoplesvote_uk campaign:
Voting intention:
CON 40%
LAB 34
LD 10
UKIP 4
Green 4
Poll conducted among 25,537 people online, 21 Dec-4 Jan.
Voting intention:
CON 40%
LAB 34
LD 10
UKIP 4
Green 4
Poll conducted among 25,537 people online, 21 Dec-4 Jan.
Same poll...
Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes with the support of most Conservative MPs and most Labour MPs. How would you vote at the next election?
CON 42
LAB 26
Lib Dem 17
SNP/Plaid 5
Other 10
Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes with the support of most Conservative MPs and most Labour MPs. How would you vote at the next election?
CON 42
LAB 26
Lib Dem 17
SNP/Plaid 5
Other 10
Same poll...
Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes because it is supported by most Conservative MPs and Labour does not instruct its MPs to oppose it. How would you vote at the next election?
CON 43
LAB 26
Lib Dem 16
SNP/Plaid 5
Other 10
Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes because it is supported by most Conservative MPs and Labour does not instruct its MPs to oppose it. How would you vote at the next election?
CON 43
LAB 26
Lib Dem 16
SNP/Plaid 5
Other 10
Let's run through the "Parliament will vote to stop a no-deal Brexit" once again, because some people haven't been paying attention
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One of the recurring lines we hear from MPs is that they'll be voting (some day) against the WA, to stop it and to stop a no-deal
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these are two very different things
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Let's see if we can make sense of yesterday's events:
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Lots to consider, but maybe less of lasting consequence than we might imagine
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First up we have the AG's opinion in Wightman, recommending unilateral revocation of Art.50 is appropriate.
It's at the top end of campaigners' expectations, but it's only an opinion, so until the ECJ actually rules, this doesn't change anything clearly
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It's at the top end of campaigners' expectations, but it's only an opinion, so until the ECJ actually rules, this doesn't change anything clearly
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It's Monday morning, so where are we with Brexit?
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Well, as you might expect after last week's unambiguous statement from the EU that the UK needs to get moving fast on the Withdrawal Agt, not much
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May's second attempt at a presser (w no Qs, obvz) on Friday did manage to deflect much attention, both by saying it was the EU's turn to come up with ideas and by being more steely on Chequers
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Some notes from @whatukthinks speech at #BrexitPolling, despite his summary containing most of it: bit.ly/2DP69f5
Ppl a bit more economically pessimistic than post #EUref and some more concern, but not huge shifts
However, bigger shifts on quality of final deal, esp post #GE17, w falls in confidence
Some ppl asking, “What happens if parliament votes to reject Brexit deal but Article 50 window almost closed?” Here’s my view...1/
Govt falls. New govt must go back & ask for better deal. EU refuses unless UK willing to offer additional concessions on its “red lines”. 2/
Govt goes back to parliament & says, “This is best deal available unless we are more flexible. Over to you, sovereign parliament...” 3/
