Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EU_Russia
Most recents (5)
#EU_Russia: The oil price cap will probably be $60-70 per barrel, while the grace period will be 45 days (if loaded before Dec 5th and unloaded before Jan 19th). On the other hand, the EU is also discussing a cap price for Russian gas that would be €275 per MWh⤵️
(€2,974 per 1,000 m3). This price cap for gas is proposed for a year in futures for a month ahead. Thus, the EU tries to avoid damaging the gas market, while in reality it costs Russia nothing to sell its gas via pipeline or as LNG at a profitable price. Now, the price of⤵️
gas is at the level of €120 per MWh or €1,298 per 1,000 m3. The gas price cap mechanism will be activated in two cases: 1) for 2 weeks, the price exceeds €2,974 per 1,000 m3; 2) the difference between the TTF and the global price of LNG will exceed €58 in 10 business days.⤵️
#EU_Russia: The EU summit with 10 ASEAN countries scheduled for Brussels in December will adopt a declaration condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine. This will happen after the G-20 meeting that will take place in Indonesia (Bali) in November, with the participation of⤵️ 
Putin. It is worth mentioning that of the 10 member states of ASEAN, only Singapore has joined some of the Western sanctions against Russia in the financial sector (along with 30 other countries). ⤵️
Consequently, Singapore is the only one included in the list of ~50 “unfriendly states” established by Russia to apply counter-sanctions. Vietnam has an FTA with the Eurasian Union. ⤵️
#EU_Russia: The right-wing coalition may take power in Italy after yesterday’s snap elections, under the leadership of the charismatic Giorgi Miloni (Fratelli d'Italia). This coalition includes Berlusconi and Salvini who have come out in favor of Putin (at least before⤵️
the Russian aggression against Ukraine broke out). This could create problems in the EU in the face of new sanctions on Russia or simply generate tensions in the bilateral dialogue between Rome and Brussels. The next elections to watch out for are in Bulgaria in early October.⤵️
Sofia was already showing interest in restoring gas supplies from Russia after the political crisis occurred in July this year. This could allow Hungary's Orban to more easily resist Brussels and oppose an even tougher stance on Russia.⤵️
#EU_Russia: Borrell's statements about Lithuania's application of the sanctions regime sound disjointed and unconvincing in terms of preventing Russian pressure on Vilnius. He insists that Lithuania is applying EU sanctions (which is correct). They restrict the transport⤵️
to/from Kaliningrad of a very specific category of goods in transit through Lithuania. Borrell admitted that Vilnius has guidelines provided by the Commission, after consultations. After saying that, he suggests double-checking if the correct guidelines were given to Lithuania.⤵️
In addition, the head of EU diplomacy announced that he will double check the compatibility between sanctions and the law (probably hinting at the 2002 transit agreement with Russia). First, it is imperative that the EU see if there is any discrepancy between sanctions⤵️
#EU_Russia: This week's tensions between theo-geopolitical players will unfold around three main themes: 1) The EU Council's decision on the EU candidacy of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will make Moscow uncomfortable, even if it denies it. Meanwhile, Russia announced new⤵️
attacks on Ukraine's Lugansk region to occupy Severodonetsk and Lysichansk, facing counterattacks from Ukraine. Russia's intensified military action could also be used to incentivize the Eurosceptics to lower the candidacy offer to Ukraine. This may also have a negative⤵️
indirect effect on Moldova and Georgia. It is worth observing whether the results of the French parliamentary elections can mark the candidacy prospects of Eastern Europeans. 2) Lithuania could feel increased and new pressure from Russia to implement sanctions on the transit⤵️
