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Proposition: #Banks won't rally because rates -long & short- are too low; #Japan is our marker, banks there falling while US/#EZ rose pre-#GFC, not gaining afterward; Also v-a-v EZ peers, #US bank returns were anomalous, ergo can't be repeated. 1/x
Response: Banks make money by increasing charges in the absence of NIM
NB: When long rates are artificially suppressed & flattened to/thru 0%, opportunity cost vanishes and demand for money -as a savings medium, not a transactional tool - RISES 2/x
It wasn’t low rates per se that held #Japan banks back, post 1989, but scattered failures and an heroic amount of write-offs and restructurings of their toxic, bubble-era legacy - something which helped the country’s eventual, creditable real per capita GDP recovery. 3/x
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