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Treasury yield curve collapsing at long maturities
10yr-3mo spread today 9bps
10yr-3mo spread today 9bps
Use utterly conventional probit regression, 1967-2019m05, 10yr-3mo spread implies 40% probability #recession in May 2020. Ich denke wir sind verloren - Danke, Drumpf! (no adjustment for term premium)
Detail on spreads, time series, below. If Cam Harvey is right, we are already *toast*
