Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EconomicBulletin
Most recents (6)
🧵Recent Eurosystem and ECB staff projections have largely underestimated surging inflation. Such forecast errors are widespread across peer institutions, which suggests they are due to unforeseen global factors ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… #EconomicBulletin
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The errors in our energy inflation projections largely reflect unexpected price hikes. More persistent supply bottlenecks and a swifter economic recovery than anticipated have also contributed to our underestimation of inflation when excluding energy and food
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Forecasting inflation developments will continue to be a challenge for the foreseeable future, owing to volatile energy prices and the uncertainty from the war in Ukraine. Our staff continuously review and adjust the models and assumptions underlying the projections
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🧵 How much less will people consume in response to the recent increase in energy prices? After a period of recovery following the pandemic, the rise in commodity prices since last summer has affected people’s spending plans ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b…
#EconomicBulletin
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#EconomicBulletin
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Exposure to fluctuating energy prices differs across income groups: the less people earn, the bigger the impact of higher prices. Poorer households spend a large percentage of their income on energy, meaning they are particularly affected by rising costs
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Targeted fiscal policies can play a key role in supporting those most affected. According to our Consumer Expectations Survey, people with higher exposure to changing energy prices are more likely to feel a need for governments to buffer the impact of increasing costs
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The coronavirus pandemic has lowered potential output in the euro area. Labour, capital, and total factor productivity were all affected. Read more in the #EconomicBulletin [1/4]
ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b…
ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b…
Estimates of potential output are uncertain and will change as the situation evolves and as the pandemic’s economic impact becomes clearer. Yet, it is already evident that potential output is likely down less than GDP – indicating a negative output gap [2/4]
Digitalisation is likely to have accelerated in many firms across different sectors in response to the pandemic. This positive development may enhance productivity growth in the medium term [3/4]
The Chinese economy has rebounded to levels close to those preceding the #coronavirus pandemic in just three months, following the sharp decline in economic activity resulting from the lockdown earlier this year. Read in full #EconomicBulletin ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… 1/4
The China economic activity indicator rose from a low of around 20% of normal levels in February to 90% in just three months. The manufacturing sector led the recovery, while services lagged behind 2/4
Services suffered due to the ongoing mandatory social distancing rules that affected activities like tourism, travel, cultural and sporting events, and retail. China also saw a drop in domestic demand, which usually contributes more than 50% of its GDP growth 3/4
(THREAD) A preliminary assessment shows that the coronavirus crisis has not affected employment and unemployment in the euro area as severely as expected. This sharply contrasts with the US where unemployment increased rapidly due to the pandemic 1/3
The widespread use of short-time work schemes is one of the key factors behind the overall muted immediate response of the labour market to the coronavirus crisis in the euro area. Read the full #EconomicBulletin article ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… 2/3
Still, there has been an overall sharp decline in hiring rates and job postings due to the #containmentmeasures. Recreation, travel and manufacturing sectors are more affected than health care, software and IT services sectors. Read more ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b… 3/3
(THREAD) Our latest #EconomicBulletin examines the impact of the ECB’s monetary policy response to the #coronavirus, specifically asset purchases and the provision of central bank liquidity. 1/4
The PEPP decisions in March and June and the scaling-up of the asset purchase programme (APP) decided in March are estimated to have reduced the eurozone ten-year sovereign yield by almost 45 basis points. The measures also have a positive impact on inflation and GDP growth. 2/4
The provision of ample central bank liquidity has helped to protect the credit flow to the real economy. For example, in the June TLTRO III operation banks bid for a total of €1,308 bn in TLTRO funds, the largest amount allotted to date under any single lending operation. 3/4
