Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EuropeBigWet
Most recents (24)
The winter edition of #EuropeBigWet, fueled by tropical Atlantic Moisture begins today. Here is the latest GFS forecast accumulating snowfall over the coming 16 days.
#TheBeastFromTheWest
#TheBeastFromTheWest
Here's the latest @ECMWF accumulating rain forecast. In the west it isn't cold enough to snow... and during the event as the incoming water is warm, there will be a mixture of rain and snow, and relatively warm periods which will melt the snow.
@ECMWF In terms of timing and intensity of components of the continuous waves of Atlantic Water which will power this event this IVT plot provides a guide as to when and where the intense parts of this event forecast to occur.
A brief pictorial thread of parts of the northern hemisphere where extreme or unusual weather phenomena are underway.
Starting with #eastasia #infa & #3rdStorm which seems to have initiated formation. This is the storm which will crash #Olympics2021, shortly after the opening.
Starting with #eastasia #infa & #3rdStorm which seems to have initiated formation. This is the storm which will crash #Olympics2021, shortly after the opening.
The 1st animation is 120 hours. This version goes for 11 days longer. As on #infa’s path beyond 120 hours, what happens beyond July 26th is pretty uncertain. #infa is also continuously not behaving as expected, totes normal for a heat engine of this magnitude.
Heading west a few thousand miles the lingering impact of the #ArabianMomsoonBurst is set to continue for some time bringing thunderstorms to the Arabian peninsula on a daily basis. See @Arab_Storms for video reports.
This killer #EuropeBigWet storm is still packing a punch. Here you see it yesterday over Italy and the Balkans.
And here it is today. It still has a clearly defined circulation over the Adriatic Sea.
This shows the jet stream forecast for today which pretty perfectly matches what we are seeing here from the satellite imagery.
But while the circulation is gone the jet remains. This jet looks like it is going to move into the business of delivering moisture to the Middle East.
But while the circulation is gone the jet remains. This jet looks like it is going to move into the business of delivering moisture to the Middle East.
This jet-stream wind forecast simulation from @NOAA's GFS Hourly model on July 13 captured this disastrous European Storm event almost perfectly.
#EuropeBigWet
@RyanMaue @weathermodels_
#EuropeBigWet
@RyanMaue @weathermodels_
13th July... morning
14th July.. morning
Two Nile dams joined by nile 100kms apart as seen this morning by @NASA's Modis satellite. [Top right Sudan's Roseires and bottom left the #GERD.]
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's big picture is a dramatic shot of the Sahara at sunset with a massive storm over Mali and a line of clouds from the heart of Algeria's desert south east to Chad. On the right you can see tonight's storms over the #Ethiopia highlands.
The rainfall in the Western Sahara has just started but it has a few more days to run. In this animation of a simulation you see the precipitable water anomaly, which highlights areas which have much more water than normal for this time of year.
2 recent #pictures on day 5 of the 2021 Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam #GERD filling.
1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.
Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
1. Satellite image this morning.
2 Date unknown, posted on Twitter today.
Meanwhile it looks as if the #HOA rain is about to get heavier. Today's forecasts follow.
Today's big picture hasn't changed much.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
TS #Elsa can still be seen bottom left, she will be crossing Cuba later today.
Bottom right we see storms over #Ethiopia and #Yemen.
In Europe the #EuropeBigWet continues with North Atlantic weather moving in from West.
Day three of official #GERD filling today in Ethiopia. And a gap in the clouds this morning reveals the GERD lake on the #Abbay river.
Today's #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Here we zoom out a little, the source of the #Abbay/#BlueNile Lake Tana takes pride of place. You can see the #GERD lake in the bottom left hand corner.
These images are from the @NASA Modis Worldview service. Also below a picture of the #GERD from back in January.
These images are from the @NASA Modis Worldview service. Also below a picture of the #GERD from back in January.
Here's today's big picture as ever of the great Sahara Desert. You can see today's #ArabianStorms starting up bottom right, and top left a new rain front coming into Western Europe where the 2021 #EuropeBigWet continues to bring rain and unseasonably mild temperatures.
Heavy rains fell over the Horn of Africa today as the world turns its attention towards the area, following a tumultuous week since the election last Monday.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.
The big picture tonight at sundown. Europe, the Sahara North Africa the Horn and the Middle East. #AllInThisTogether
Today's North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts. The West African Monsoon continues to run strong.
See four satellite images taken today of major water transport events from @NASA Modis below.
1. Monsoon winds leaving India
2. Monsoon winds arriving Africa
3. Closeup of the #HornOfAfrica
4. The latest WMA plume.
Today's #Africa and #Middle East rainfall forecasts follow.
1. Monsoon winds leaving India
2. Monsoon winds arriving Africa
3. Closeup of the #HornOfAfrica
4. The latest WMA plume.
Today's #Africa and #Middle East rainfall forecasts follow.
Two views of today's heavy rainfall in the Nile Basin and along the Red Sea Coast.
A big picture view from the Atlantic to the Bay of Bengal. It is extraordinary how long the Leviathan storm has been stationary in the middle of the picture near the Black Sea. It started in late May!
It's morning in Europe after a day of destructive weather in Spain and the Netherlands in particular. The low discussed in recent #EuropeBigWet updates has arrived and as expected is bringing a significant change in the pattern over Europe.
Extended update follows.
Extended update follows.
#EuropeBigWet coverage of began on June 4th. But April & May were weird too.
Recaps...
6 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401635…
7 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401903…
8 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1402294…
10 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1403067…
17 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1405502…
Recaps...
6 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401635…
7 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1401903…
8 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1402294…
10 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1403067…
17 June: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1405502…
The cause of the unusual weather being experienced in Europe, Sahara, the United States and he Middle East is the same. Very high levels of airborn water vapour in northern hemisphere.
These two images 18th June show the visible part, cloud cover in the North Atlantic/Pacific.
These two images 18th June show the visible part, cloud cover in the North Atlantic/Pacific.
Satellite images of the monsoon winds path to the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast in three pictures.
1. The source... Bay of Bengal
2. The voyage.... The Arabian Sea
3. Landfall
Today's rainfall forecasts for the wider area follow.
1. The source... Bay of Bengal
2. The voyage.... The Arabian Sea
3. Landfall
Today's rainfall forecasts for the wider area follow.
The big picture this evening.
Europe is stormy in the East and the West.
#ArabianStorms have returned to a less unusual format.
Big Rains continue in the Nile Basin.
And night has fallen on the Indian monsoon.
Europe is stormy in the East and the West.
#ArabianStorms have returned to a less unusual format.
Big Rains continue in the Nile Basin.
And night has fallen on the Indian monsoon.
Four North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts for today June 18th. Forecasts for the West Africa Monsoon are continuing to move north particularly in the West.
As forecast a low has formed north east of Newfoundland and is now heading east towards the UK, where recent forecasts have indicated it may remain for several days bringing rain to Western Europe.
Todays #EuropeBigWet update.
Todays #EuropeBigWet update.
Here in Brittany underneath the cloud mass running up Europe's Western flank it has now been raining since 4pm yesterday. A break is forecast this afternoon before it resumes in the evening.
In the image here you see the cause, clouds travelling north over the Western Sahara.
In the image here you see the cause, clouds travelling north over the Western Sahara.
Here you see a close up of the source of the storms heading northwards up Europe's West Coast.
This time its personal!
The image below shows a large storm headed directly towards me here in Brittany, France which will arrive shortly. And it’s part of a bigger picture. #EuropeBigWet update.
NOTE: Today the Euro @ECMWF model is unavailable due to a data feed issue.
The image below shows a large storm headed directly towards me here in Brittany, France which will arrive shortly. And it’s part of a bigger picture. #EuropeBigWet update.
NOTE: Today the Euro @ECMWF model is unavailable due to a data feed issue.
And appropriately given my two and half months monitoring this phenomena the storm that is approaching has also come 6000kms due north across the Western Sahara. I.E. its a #WestAfricaWaterPlume.
The wind is now coming up. The cows are sitting down and it’s eerily quiet. Earlier there was rumbling sounds of thunder in the distance.
Here we can see Tropical Storm Bill, which looks very cyclonic now, storming north with an outrider running a parallel line to the west over the US seaboard this morning.
Cyclone Bill, soon to become extra-tropical low Bill seems determined to join the #EuropeBigWet.
Cyclone Bill, soon to become extra-tropical low Bill seems determined to join the #EuropeBigWet.
What is now TS Bill was previously shown in models storming across to Ireland and removing the Leviathan Storm from the picture over the weekend. But that didn't happen and the Leviathan storm over the Black Sea is now heading south.
Nothing went quite like the models had predicted.
In the interim we have had a nice break from #EuropeBigWet in Western Europe lately. But it's now due to come to an end. Here in Brittany I currently have rain forecast for the next eight days,
In the interim we have had a nice break from #EuropeBigWet in Western Europe lately. But it's now due to come to an end. Here in Brittany I currently have rain forecast for the next eight days,
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.
I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
What a difference a gnarly little low makes. The till now stationary #EuropeBigWet is about to be blown away. Which will be a relief to some. But there are still a bunch of storms coming.
Here in France where we had been expecting to largely ride this out a bunch of big rain events are now coming. Which I will enjoy and will probably also be welcomed by farmers.
A series of North Atlantic storms will soon break the current traffic jam caused by the stationary low over Eastern Europe.
This 10 day simulation shows one possible scenario but the underlying situation is absurdly complicated, so don’t count on this as a guide.
This 10 day simulation shows one possible scenario but the underlying situation is absurdly complicated, so don’t count on this as a guide.
Today's #EuropeBigWet report has a twist in it. The arrival of a new element in the model forecasts, a zippy little storm that looks a bit cyclonic heading towards the UK.
Today's update follows.
Follow #EuropeBigWet to get a daily update.
Here's a view from this morning.
Today's update follows.
Follow #EuropeBigWet to get a daily update.
Here's a view from this morning.
These four satellite still images are taken at around the same time and show the picture before the heat of the day started heating up the storms.
And here's a view from this evening, which is almost identical to yesterday evening.
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.
#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.
#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
The wider region this evening.
More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
This close up shows more Atlantic moisture pouring into North Africa over Morroco and Western Sahara. You can also see a substantial dust cloud is now forming which will be helping to suppress Atlantic cyclones.
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.
This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Today's #EuropeBigWet update.
Still raining lots.....
Image 1. A live rainfall map as of now from @Meteoblue
Image 2. A high res satellite image as of this morning @NASA Modis.
Still raining lots.....
Image 1. A live rainfall map as of now from @Meteoblue
Image 2. A high res satellite image as of this morning @NASA Modis.
This first animation is from this morning and shows the clouds moving in over the UK and Ireland. Not too much rain expected there though. Mainly in Scotland.
The rest of Europe has settled down over night bit it is still very wet.
The rest of Europe has settled down over night bit it is still very wet.
Here we see the storm over Russia and former Soviet states. It has lost some of its organisation over night but is still a circulation of thunderstorms. At the bottom right a new injection of storms is coming up the right flank through Turkey.
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.
This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.
#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.
#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Today's #EuropeBigWet update. Russia is getting pummelled. Italy is on fire with thunderstorms and central Europe is getting busy.
For context click on the hashtag for earlier episodes. This has been building up for a while. Thread....
For context click on the hashtag for earlier episodes. This has been building up for a while. Thread....
It started modestly even though the warm air over Europe is increasingly saturated with moisture. And then as the day got hotter the thunderstorms got active.
This afternoon Italy in particular looks as if it is undergoing something potentially rather dangerous.
Today's #EuropeBigWet Update.
The main source of water into the European zone remains a flow of water across the Sahara north, now on a broad front bringing rain along a 1700km wide front from France to the Aegean.
The main source of water into the European zone remains a flow of water across the Sahara north, now on a broad front bringing rain along a 1700km wide front from France to the Aegean.
Notably the unusual circulation of thunderstorms north of the Black Sea has grown to 2000kms wide and now extends all the way to the Baltic. This system appeared with the #WesternSaharaPlume and appears to be fed by it.
This animation from @Meteoblue shows an apparently connected outflow heading East across northern Russia.
Europe is already very wet. Its about to get a lot wetter.
The 2021 #EuropeBigWet is already underway. Now the Atlantic is about to fully flood the zone.
The 2021 #EuropeBigWet is already underway. Now the Atlantic is about to fully flood the zone.
This is a 16-Day animation starting today and running till June 22nd. Its going to be a very wet #SummerSolstice.
#EuropeWeather #Europe #Weather
#Portugal #Spain #UK #Ireland #France #Spain #Belgium #Germany #Poland #Italy #Switzerland #Hungary #Ukraine #Roumania #Czechia
#EuropeWeather #Europe #Weather
#Portugal #Spain #UK #Ireland #France #Spain #Belgium #Germany #Poland #Italy #Switzerland #Hungary #Ukraine #Roumania #Czechia
This is the GEFS ensemble rain forecast for Europe also over 16 days. When the computer simulations think together the conclusion seems to be that it is going to rain everywhere every day.
