Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ExponentialGrowth

Most recents (5)

Humanity is a bewildering species. 🤔

Since Covid first manifested its ghastly presence on these shores, I think it fair to say that most of us have gained an understanding of the R number.

In simple terms:

R < 1.0 = Good! ✔️ 👍🏻
R > 1.0 = Bad! ✖️ 👎🏻
Obviously, it has ebbed and flowed in response to: lockdowns beginning; lockdowns ending; vaccine rollout; and social bubbles etc.

However, by this point, few can be in any doubt that R being significantly above 1.0, say around 1.5, is VERY bad indeed. 🤮
We have been incredibly lucky to have several highly effective vaccines appear, so quickly.

Just imagine what 2021 would have looked like in the face of the #Delta strain, without ANY vaccines? 😱

But our “leaders”, basically opted for a “vaccine only” strategy. 🙄
Read 24 tweets
1/4 Informed by mathematical modelling, the approach to #COVID19 pandemic control involved an initial phase of strong #publichealth measures (e.g. closures) to stop #exponential growth that threatened to overwhelm the health system.
2/4 Following this is a longer phase of less restrictive #publichealth measures (#PhysicalDistancing, #Handwashing, #MaskOn, #TestandTrace) to keep #COVID19 under manageable control, as we cautiously reopen social & economic spaces.
3/4 This overall approach has been popularly described as the “Hammer and the Dance”.…
Read 4 tweets
1/7 #COVID19 key concerns in 🇨🇦: w\ slower epidemic growth, cases are not doubling as rapidly as they had been. However, due to a prolonged clinical course, deaths continue to climb as COVID-19 takes its devastating toll.
2/7 This creates a bit of a paradox: when early in an epidemic there is a rapid #ExponentialGrowth of new cases but a slower accumulation of deaths, so the calculated case fatality rate (CFR) is relatively low. #COVID19
3/7 Then just as things seem to be getting better with the epidemic growth rate slowing down, deaths begin to accumulate at a faster pace and the calculated case fatality rate (CFR) likewise increases. #COVID19
#ProtecttheVulnerable #OlderAdults
Read 7 tweets
1/10 As Canadians continue #PhysicalDistancing, we are closely monitoring for signs that our efforts are having an impact to #SlowtheSpread of #COVID19. #StayAtHome #PlankTheCurve
2/10 It’s taken just over 3 months for the first cluster of #COVID19 cases to spread and establish the pandemic. It is hard to take in how our lives have changed in such fundamental ways over this short period. #COVID19
3/10 At this point, we still don’t have all the answers, but there is some cause for cautious optimism coming from our epidemiological data. #COVID19 #COVIDCoping #WeWillGetThroughThis #cavabienaller
Read 10 tweets

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