Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #FISCAL
Most recents (24)
The Weekly Recap (12.06.23 ~ 16.06.23) 🧵
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
#MacroMonday #market
Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.
Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
#MacroMonday #market
On Fiscal Impulse
1. Recently we examined the latest data on US #government spending, i..e, US #fiscal impulse. Monthly spending data from the government contains significant #volatility; therefore, we apply a smoothing process to extract spending trends in government data.
1. Recently we examined the latest data on US #government spending, i..e, US #fiscal impulse. Monthly spending data from the government contains significant #volatility; therefore, we apply a smoothing process to extract spending trends in government data.
2. Above, we show our estimates of the monthly changes in US government spending. We decompose this spending into its sources, i.e., government revenues, borrowing, and cash balances.
3. Our latest estimates for government spending in May saw spending rise by 1%, primarily driven by decreases in government cash balances.
[1/🧵] A short synopsis of Joachim Nagel's most recent speech on the future of #economic and #monetary union, presented and released by @OMFIF (@OMFIFDMI). 👇
[2/7] Joachim Nagel, a member of the @bundesbank's Executive Board, discusses:
🔸 #Inflation
🔸 #Monetary policy
🔸 #Fiscal development, ...
... among other topics.
🔸 #Inflation
🔸 #Monetary policy
🔸 #Fiscal development, ...
... among other topics.
[3/7] According to Nagel, the ongoing #energy #crisis in #Ukraine has resulted in:
🔸 Greater #inflation
🔸 Higher #energy prices ...
... influencing:
🔸 #Industrial costs
🔸 #Financial insecurity.
🔸 Greater #inflation
🔸 Higher #energy prices ...
... influencing:
🔸 #Industrial costs
🔸 #Financial insecurity.
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
Mar. 1:
1/ #Russia Near #Fiscal #Collapse
#Putin's #Money for the #War may run out in the summer - @Forbes. A few important figures:
🔸#Russia is approaching a #Fiscal #Collapse
..continued
2/
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine .@ZelenskyyUa .@DmytroKuleba
t.me/Crimeanwind/23…
1/ #Russia Near #Fiscal #Collapse
#Putin's #Money for the #War may run out in the summer - @Forbes. A few important figures:
🔸#Russia is approaching a #Fiscal #Collapse
..continued
2/
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine .@ZelenskyyUa .@DmytroKuleba
t.me/Crimeanwind/23…
Our new #EconomicResilience Index is out!
EU countries hit hardest by economic crises are still least prepared for the next crises – among them rich countries like Italy.
Why that’s bad, why they are also least prepared for the #greentransition and what to do - a thread🧵1/10
EU countries hit hardest by economic crises are still least prepared for the next crises – among them rich countries like Italy.
Why that’s bad, why they are also least prepared for the #greentransition and what to do - a thread🧵1/10
Scandinavian economies are the best-placed to absorb, recover from, and adapt to shocks, with Sweden first in the ranking. Romania, Greece and Bulgaria are the countries at the bottom of the Index. 2/10
Some of EU’s largest economies are not doing well: France ranks 11 out of 25, Spain 18 und Italy 19. The breakdown shows: Divergence is particularly large in the dimensions of Education & Skills and Governance. 3/10
Sigue, #EnVivo, la Conferencia Matutina Presidencial, a través de la multiplataforma de #CanalCatorce: 📺 14.1 | 📱#MxplayTV|⏯️ 💻 facebook.com/canalcatorcemx twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
#ConferenciaPresidente | @lopezobrador_ dijo que "el poder mediático es usado por las oligarquías en el mundo para someter gobiernos" y explicó que por la presión de los medios de comunicación alemanes, el Gobierno de ese país tuvo que enviar más armas a #Ucrania.
#ConferenciaPresidente | @lopezobrador_ dijo que ya quedó de manifiesto que en México "tenemos medios de información que defienden grupos de intereses creados, defienden el pensamiento y la acción del conservadurismo". Estamos viviendo tiempos de definición, sentenció
#Pakistan is going thru a complex #macro situation. At its heart is one symptom: the #CAD. Because the CAD has been perennial, this long-standing symptom translated into large foreign liabilities. Short 🧵👇
L’heure du @RevoTips ➡️ Le guide @RevoAvocats du contrôle fiscal en matière de #cryptos 📓 (Part 1)
Quels sont les éléments déclencheurs d’un contrôle #fiscal spécifiques au secteur crypto ?
(1 / )
Quels sont les éléments déclencheurs d’un contrôle #fiscal spécifiques au secteur crypto ?
(1 / )
A partir de cette semaine nous allons publier une série de threads sur le sujet du contrôle fiscal en matière de cryptos.
Cette semaine, on vous parle des éléments qui peuvent inciter l’administration fiscale à déclencher un contrôle fiscal. 🤔
Cette semaine, on vous parle des éléments qui peuvent inciter l’administration fiscale à déclencher un contrôle fiscal. 🤔
Chiffres clés du contrôle fiscal pour 2021 :
➡️10,7 milliards d’€ encaissés, pour 13,4 milliards d’€ de droits mis en recouvrement
➡️Renforcement du ciblage via #datamining 👨🏻💻 👉 à l’origine de 45 % de contrôles contre 32,49 % en 2020
➡️10,7 milliards d’€ encaissés, pour 13,4 milliards d’€ de droits mis en recouvrement
➡️Renforcement du ciblage via #datamining 👨🏻💻 👉 à l’origine de 45 % de contrôles contre 32,49 % en 2020
#RevoTips : Spécial @Binance PSAN🇫🇷 !
Hier, #Binance a été enregistré #PSAN (Prestataire de Services sur Actifs Numériques) auprès de l’@AMF (Autorité des Marchés Financiers).
Quels impacts fiscaux à la suite cette annonce ?🤔
#impots
1/22
Hier, #Binance a été enregistré #PSAN (Prestataire de Services sur Actifs Numériques) auprès de l’@AMF (Autorité des Marchés Financiers).
Quels impacts fiscaux à la suite cette annonce ?🤔
#impots
1/22
Un "détail" préliminaire : c'est l'entité Binance #FRANCE🇫🇷, et non pas une autre entité étrangère (que nous appellerons #Binance MONDE🌍) qui est titulaire du #PSAN.
Quels services sont concernés ?
- Conservation d’actifs numériques ;
- Achat/vente d’actifs numériques contre monnaie ayant cours légal ;
- Echange d’actifs numériques contre d’autres actifs numériques ;
- Exploitation d’une plateforme de négociation d’actifs numériques ;
#Crypto
- Conservation d’actifs numériques ;
- Achat/vente d’actifs numériques contre monnaie ayant cours légal ;
- Echange d’actifs numériques contre d’autres actifs numériques ;
- Exploitation d’une plateforme de négociation d’actifs numériques ;
#Crypto
🧵The govt of #Pakistan has found a specific #fiscal space of 250 Bln, which is being channelised to provide relief in #energy prices. Here is the break down
#PMIKaddressToNation
#PMIKaddressToNation
2) 1.5 billion litre HSD/#Petrol consumed per day. Rs 10 per litre relief means Ra 15 billion per month.
#PMIKaddressToNation
#PMIKaddressToNation
3) Decrease in #electricity prices @RS 5/unit (slab 2-5; all commercial) = monthly impact 17.5 billion
Four months subsidy on #petrol #diesel #electricity = Rs 130 Bln
#PMIKaddressToNation
Four months subsidy on #petrol #diesel #electricity = Rs 130 Bln
#PMIKaddressToNation
The @OECD Economic Survey of 🇸🇰 #Slovakia has been released!
Preparing for rapid population ageing, boosting productivity & greening the #recovery from #COVID19 represent key policy priorities going forward.
➡oe.cd/slovakia
@MathiasCormann
@LauBooneEco
1/11
Preparing for rapid population ageing, boosting productivity & greening the #recovery from #COVID19 represent key policy priorities going forward.
➡oe.cd/slovakia
@MathiasCormann
@LauBooneEco
1/11
Risks surrounding the outlook remain high. Supply disruptions are leading to volatile production and surging #inflation in #Slovakia.
➡oe.cd/slovakia
3/11
➡oe.cd/slovakia
3/11
The @EU_EESC has just published a study by @repasi, @chris_ptz, @AndrewWattEU, Sebastian Watzka and me on the economics and legal issues of changing EU #fiscal rules.
Our conclusions: Quite sweeping changes are possible without treaty change. A Thread. 1/
eesc.europa.eu/en/our-work/pu…
Our conclusions: Quite sweeping changes are possible without treaty change. A Thread. 1/
eesc.europa.eu/en/our-work/pu…
In the study, we look at different reform proposals for the fiscal rules (including that of the the @EFB_EU), dissect them into the different elements and evaluate the legal and economic issues surrounding the elements. 2/
The specific elements are: Moving towards an expenditure rule (with the detailed questions of benchmarks, investment clauses and the escape clause as well as adjustment speed), the change in the debt anchor and the adjustment towards it as well 3/
The political momentum for reforming the #EU 🇪🇺 #fiscal framework is larger than ever. We are excited to share our freshly published feasibility & impact analysis of the reform proposals with you: zoe-institut.de/en/publication… (1/15)➡️
Recovering from the #pandemic and simultaneously achieving #environmental, #social and #economic goals requires large amounts of public funding and therefore ample #fiscal flexibility for #EU member states. (2/15)
And with all eyes on #COP26 this week, and the discussion about the scale and pace of investment for #ClimateAction high on the agenda, the discussion about how to create the fiscal flexibility for investments such as these has never been more timely (3/15)
Great conversation with @MerrillLynch CIO Chris Hyzy, as part of their #MerrillPerspectives event. Some of the topics we discuss follow and the full conversation can be accessed here: ml.com/2021-midyear-e…
On the #market lessons stemming from the pandemic, I suggested that- stepping back- while a lot has been thrown at the #economy and markets over the past 30 years, in every case the #policy response has been critical to evaluate in judging the ultimate impact: policy matters!
That said, we think there is an overestimation of the importance of exceedingly low #policy rate levels to the recovery but maintaining the stability and #liquidity of the financing #markets is critical, particularly at the top end of the capital stack.
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.
What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!
I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!
I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation
2/n
#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
3/n
3/n
Super excited to see our paper on #Covid19 #Fiscal Support and its Effectiveness, with Alexander Chudik @DallasFed & @mraissi80 @IMFNews, out in Economics Letters. You can read it (free access) from here: authors.elsevier.com/c/1dDlMbZedt0om #TGVAR 1/n
With new variants/waves & reimposition of restrictions in some regions, governments around the world are calling for a careful assessment of the effectiveness of the adopted #Covid19 #fiscal measures before they embark on further easing or tailoring of measures 2/n
The #Covid19 pandemic led to a sharp tightening of global #financial conditions at the acute phase of the crisis and has inflicted large economic losses across the world (see Figure below) ... 3/n
[Manifesto. #1 One]
#CivicWave is an #informalgroup of the #progressist area, on Twitter, but attentive to movements on other #social and off-network that, aware of the importance of active #participation, intends to take...
We call it #gentlerevolution.
#CivicWave is an #informalgroup of the #progressist area, on Twitter, but attentive to movements on other #social and off-network that, aware of the importance of active #participation, intends to take...
We call it #gentlerevolution.
[Manifesto. #2 Two]
Joining #CivicWave #OndaCivica is compatible with all progressive Italian and international hashtags, including:
#FR, #6000sardine, #Forumalcentro,
#FBPE, #FBPEGlobal, #FBR.
The symbols in bio are:
#OndaCivica🌊🌊🌊 #CivicWave🌊🌊🌊,
or for short #OC🌊
Joining #CivicWave #OndaCivica is compatible with all progressive Italian and international hashtags, including:
#FR, #6000sardine, #Forumalcentro,
#FBPE, #FBPEGlobal, #FBR.
The symbols in bio are:
#OndaCivica🌊🌊🌊 #CivicWave🌊🌊🌊,
or for short #OC🌊
[Manifesto. #3 Three]
#CivicWave promotes the #civil and prolific confrontation of ideas and experiences, in #respect of the diversity of views, to reduce #conversions and protagonism, in the conviction that #dialogue is stimulus and richness and allows to highlight # common...
#CivicWave promotes the #civil and prolific confrontation of ideas and experiences, in #respect of the diversity of views, to reduce #conversions and protagonism, in the conviction that #dialogue is stimulus and richness and allows to highlight # common...
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history.
🚨*𝐍𝐈𝐄𝐒𝐑 𝐁𝐮𝐝𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐤* 🚨
All you need to know ahead of next week's #Budget in one... THREAD 👇
1/19
#CovidEconomics
#BudgetSpeech2021
#EconTwitter
All you need to know ahead of next week's #Budget in one... THREAD 👇
1/19
#CovidEconomics
#BudgetSpeech2021
#EconTwitter
The #Budget2021 comes at a critical time when the UK is in the middle of battling the #pandemic and the economy is substantially weakened with uneven effects at industry, household & region level.
Read the economic context to #Budget2021 here 👇
2/19
niesr.ac.uk/publications/u…
Read the economic context to #Budget2021 here 👇
2/19
niesr.ac.uk/publications/u…
In preparation for my slot on #SquawkBox yesterday, I sent the guys a few slides as a synopsis of my last, detailed subscriber report for the discussion.
I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look
1/x
#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
I called it #Pyromania. Feel free to take a look
1/x
#macro #bonds #commodities #dollar #inflation #centralbanks #fiscal
Is it possible to overkill an act of overkill? #JeromePowell & #JanetYellen seem set to let us find out.
2/x
2/x
Not that they're alone in their folly, of course. The #ECB is outodoing them handsomely, while the #bankofengland is breaking records stretching back to its founding, 327 years ago.
#centralbanks
3/x
#centralbanks
3/x
The last several weeks have provided abundant drama for #markets to digest, but in our latest @BlackRock Market Insights commentary, we suggest that it’s two recent #publications that might prove more instructive for #portfolio #allocation in 2021: bit.ly/3p39aMo
First, @jasonfurman and @LHSummers make a strong case that lackluster #growth and #inflation in developed #markets may be boosted by targeted #fiscal spending. Over long horizons, the #cash flows that accrue from productive #investments render the #debt incurred sustainable.
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits…
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
As we head into the U.S. #election, there will continue to be a lot of noise that may lead to near-term #market #volatility, particularly since (as we’ve long argued) #markets appear to be able to only focus on one thing at a time!
Still, at times like this it’s crucial to focus on more consequential factors that will drive #markets in the years ahead: in this case, the powerful combination of @federalreserve #monetarypolicy and #fiscal rescue measures intended to keep the #economic engine on track.
