Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #FORECasT
Most recents (11)
An argument for why the Gambler's Fallacy, the Recency Bias, and Conditional Heteroskedasticity could set up an attractive asymmetric return profile ahead of Wednesday's US inflation (#CPI) data ...
🧵 1/n
🧵 1/n
Headline CPI is forecasted to come in at 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% the month before. CPI has clearly been trending downward since June 2022, which is positive for the #economy and risky assets as it puts a ceiling on how high the #FederalReserve has to raise rates.
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The Gambler's Fallacy & Recency Bias:
CPI swaps indicate that CPI should be approx. 2.5% (!) this June. This seems to be an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy"; a misunderstanding of #probabilities in which people wrongly project reversal towards a long-term mean.
3/n
CPI swaps indicate that CPI should be approx. 2.5% (!) this June. This seems to be an example of the "Gambler's Fallacy"; a misunderstanding of #probabilities in which people wrongly project reversal towards a long-term mean.
3/n
Massive 6.4 #earthquake rocks #California leaving people without power | Dec 20
- Its #epicenter was 210 miles north of #SanFrancisco, where a quake hit last week
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
- Its #epicenter was 210 miles north of #SanFrancisco, where a quake hit last week
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 12/19/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/12/19/dai…
Albert Edwards: The 10-Year Yield is Heading to Zero - Articles - Advisor Perspectives
advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/…
#investing #deflation #forecast
advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/…
#investing #deflation #forecast
Optimization is as hard as approximation – Machine Learning Research Blog
francisbach.com/optimization-i…
#optimization #MachineLearning
francisbach.com/optimization-i…
#optimization #MachineLearning
2020 Electoral College Forecast Map
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden
October 25~ 2020.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632919336…
Post will continue to be updated.
#ElectoralMap #ElectoralCollegeMap2020 #Election2020
#Forecast #Election2020Map #ElectoralCollege
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden
October 25~ 2020.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632919336…
Post will continue to be updated.
#ElectoralMap #ElectoralCollegeMap2020 #Election2020
#Forecast #Election2020Map #ElectoralCollege
Wisconsin: Trump vs Biden
Gravis , 10/23. 677 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632918928…
#Election2020 #Wisconsin2020 #WI2020 #swingstates
(Fixed error)
Gravis , 10/23. 677 LV.
My Analysis Post: statespoll.com/post/632918928…
#Election2020 #Wisconsin2020 #WI2020 #swingstates
(Fixed error)
Nevada: Tilt R.
I don't get it why ppl are saying NV is Lean R on my map.
I don't get it why ppl are saying NV is Lean R on my map.
Hmm. When is a "#scenario" NOT a "#forecast" - literally a "#prediction" or estimate of future events?
You may have multiple forecasts and, as with the weather, some may not come to pass. But you don't model scenarios that can't ever happen. What would be the point?
You may have multiple forecasts and, as with the weather, some may not come to pass. But you don't model scenarios that can't ever happen. What would be the point?
Again, and as with scientific papers, if people are reporting on something it's a good idea to publish (a link to) *the whole thing*. News reports may pick up on bits that are interesting, but #EvidenceMatters!
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/05/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/09/05/dai…
Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia using genomics | Nature Communications
nature.com/articles/s4146…
#tracking #COVID19 #pandemic #Genomics
nature.com/articles/s4146…
#tracking #COVID19 #pandemic #Genomics
Why efficiency is dangerous and slowing down makes life better | Psyche Ideas
psyche.co/ideas/why-effi…
#optimization #efficiency
psyche.co/ideas/why-effi…
#optimization #efficiency
North #Kokan Forecast from 10 to 13 Aug
Increase in #Rain activity expected but this time it will be of much less rains than last 3-6th hyper active spell for coastal area like #Mumbai… As Bay system is much weaker and may track along monsoon axis i.e from East MP to UP, Delhi
Increase in #Rain activity expected but this time it will be of much less rains than last 3-6th hyper active spell for coastal area like #Mumbai… As Bay system is much weaker and may track along monsoon axis i.e from East MP to UP, Delhi
(1/2) As offshore #trough may not be much strong for very heavy rains. So in my opinion gradual rise in spells from Mon with bit more increasing toward Wed-Thurs possible.
#MumbaiRains #mumbairain #Konkan #Maharashtra #WeatherUpdate #WeatherForecast #analysis #Amateurforecast
#MumbaiRains #mumbairain #Konkan #Maharashtra #WeatherUpdate #WeatherForecast #analysis #Amateurforecast
#TELANGANA #MUNICIPAL #ELECTION #FORECAST
As per our team's assessment, TRS is going to perform really well once again in the state and expected to bag 72-78 Municipalities
INC can win 18-24, while BJP, fought it alone, is in place to win 7-13 Municipalities and a corporation.
As per our team's assessment, TRS is going to perform really well once again in the state and expected to bag 72-78 Municipalities
INC can win 18-24, while BJP, fought it alone, is in place to win 7-13 Municipalities and a corporation.
#Continuation 1
BJP could have performed more than this figure,but lack of cadre strength except the northern part of the state affected them. Yet they did well considering their assembly figure
And they expected to win one more Corporation, Karimnagar, where polling is on 25th
BJP could have performed more than this figure,but lack of cadre strength except the northern part of the state affected them. Yet they did well considering their assembly figure
And they expected to win one more Corporation, Karimnagar, where polling is on 25th
#Continuation 2
The land is absolutely fertile for BJP & the future will tell this in detail
INC tried their best 2 hold on, yet couldn't counter TRS,they r losing certain areas 2 BJP as well. In the long run it will be seen in large
TRS is still the best choice of TS voters
The land is absolutely fertile for BJP & the future will tell this in detail
INC tried their best 2 hold on, yet couldn't counter TRS,they r losing certain areas 2 BJP as well. In the long run it will be seen in large
TRS is still the best choice of TS voters
Today's Applied Complexity Symposium begins with a panel on Computation and Complex Economies, feat. Rob Axtell, Joshua Epstein, @C4COMPUTATION, Blake LeBaron, John Miller, & @MelMitchell1
(Follow this thread for live coverage all day...)
#complexsystems #economics
(Follow this thread for live coverage all day...)
#complexsystems #economics
4 Principles of Collective #Computation:
1 Ground truth (objective reality)
2 Effective ground truth (what we agree on, whether or not it is accurate)
3 #Information can be collectively encoded in #networks
4 Outputs are a product of collective dynamics
@C4COMPUTATION right now
1 Ground truth (objective reality)
2 Effective ground truth (what we agree on, whether or not it is accurate)
3 #Information can be collectively encoded in #networks
4 Outputs are a product of collective dynamics
@C4COMPUTATION right now
"I think #economics really needs to adopt a generative framework with agent-based models of cognitively plausible software people...[and] we don't choose to fear."
- SFI'S Joshua Epstein (@GeorgeMasonU) on modeling emotions at today's ACtioN symposium:
Santafe.edu/action
- SFI'S Joshua Epstein (@GeorgeMasonU) on modeling emotions at today's ACtioN symposium:
Santafe.edu/action
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13
#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13
Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13
The only way you can look into the future - since there's no data, is to have a good theory.
- Clayton Christian @claychristensen
#philosophy #Technology #innovation
- Clayton Christian @claychristensen
#philosophy #Technology #innovation
I don't go where puck is, I go where puck is going to be.
- Wayne Gretsky
@WayneGretzky
#philosophy
#technology
#innovation
#future
- Wayne Gretsky
@WayneGretzky
#philosophy
#technology
#innovation
#future
What is history? An echo of past in the future, a reflex from the future on past.
- Victor Hugo
#philosophy
#forecast
#innovation
- Victor Hugo
#philosophy
#forecast
#innovation
