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Modelling with the last Panelbase poll, where votes were transferred *only* from the SNP to a new list Party X (AFI/ISP/Wings/whatever), we see that Party X needs to get near 5% to start winning seats (from SNP) & near 6% to add 3 seats to the 'indy bloc'. 
In the real world, a certain percentage of votes received by the Greens are already 'tactical votes' by those who voted SNP in constituencies.
What if some of these people voted for Party X instead of the Greens?
We see that this more realistic scenario looks even less rosy.
What if some of these people voted for Party X instead of the Greens?
We see that this more realistic scenario looks even less rosy.
Here's the baseline propjection from that poll as a reminder:
