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#FatefulTriangle
1/ Militarily, TPLF looks finished; at least as a conventional fighting force. At least for the time being. Its ranks decimated, its fighters demoralized and its popular support at an all time low.
#FatefulTriangle
1/ Militarily, TPLF looks finished; at least as a conventional fighting force. At least for the time being. Its ranks decimated, its fighters demoralized and its popular support at an all time low.
2/ In reality, #TPLF has nothing in its hands to bargain with, other than the threat of future insurgency. At this point in time, the only bargaining chip it has is the support of the USG.
3/ The US is in the talks not only to 'observe' but also 'particiapte', as per @StateDeptSpox Ned Price.
Will be writing a piece on how Delhi might see 2020 elex. Will be some Qs abt a Biden admin (China policy, emph on human rts), but also some benefits if focus is on rejuvenating US, alliances & partnerships; less volatility. He is also a known quantity 1/3
#FatefulTriangle
#FatefulTriangle
There are some things this GoI has liked about a Trump admin -- competitive view of China, initial tough approach vs Pak, little focus on human rts
But hvn't liked - volatility/uncertainty, trade, immigration approach, some elements of China approach. 2/3
But hvn't liked - volatility/uncertainty, trade, immigration approach, some elements of China approach. 2/3
Finally, worth keeping in mind that India's liked Democrats & Republicans at different point. It's a relatively recent phenomenon that Indians think Rs are better for India.
(w/r/t Pakistan, it was a R president who turned to them for help recently) 3/3
(w/r/t Pakistan, it was a R president who turned to them for help recently) 3/3
Was already trend twd 🇮🇳 cooperating more w/ 🇺🇸 & 🇦🇺🇫🇷🇯🇵; as long as they’re willing, will see more of this. Middle powers:
- bring diff/addl strengths to bear
- allow 🇮🇳 to hedge vs 🇺🇸 uncertainty, diversify its partners
- can be partners in coalitions & IOs 1/3
#FatefulTriangle
- bring diff/addl strengths to bear
- allow 🇮🇳 to hedge vs 🇺🇸 uncertainty, diversify its partners
- can be partners in coalitions & IOs 1/3
#FatefulTriangle
US won't mind deeper Indian partnerships w/ Aus, Fra, Ger, Jpn, UK, etc -- they're all US allies -- might even encourage it. Partner that does create some problems -- though not a veto -- for US-India rels is Russia.
2/3
#FatefulTriangle
2/3
#FatefulTriangle
Better not to see strategic autonomy as a means to an end. If u see it as goal, must be below security, prosperity.
No country has full SA. e.g. Russia helps give India options, but India’s dependence on it in the defense space also constrains India’s SA 3/3
#FatefulTriangle
No country has full SA. e.g. Russia helps give India options, but India’s dependence on it in the defense space also constrains India’s SA 3/3
#FatefulTriangle
