Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #FirstDosesFirst
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So, the Pfizer news from yesterday sounded really great. But, I was confused why they reported effectiveness vs. the South African variant but not for the Brazil variants. wsj.com/articles/pfize…
Recall, the South American sample in the Pfizer study was much larger than the South African sample. How is it their data says nothing about the Brazilian variants, w/ 10 times the sample size in South America (counting Argentina)?
Thus, I'm really looking forward to the full data release. That said, this data looks amazing. At a glance it suggests the mRNA vaccines work against all variants (will want to see all the data). And still works fine after six months.
Re: Pfizer vaccine. It's clear something big happens around day 11. Nothing of import happens around day 32. #firstdosesfirst 
Pfizer does a ridiculous time split when they look at one shot vs. two. First, there's no statistically significant difference in the first 7 days after the 2nd shot. Had they used an 11 day cut-off instead, one shot would clearly have won.
And, one shot would also likely have won had they looked within a 7 day window in either direction of shot #2.
