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Nakamoto Portfolio Theory
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Bitcoin Valuation based on Fixed Income

Inspired by @FossGregfoss's work, we'll explore how to estimate the value of Bitcoin using credit default swaps (CDS) as fiat insurance.

You know... "for the kids".
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In line with our other research pieces, this one comes with a web app so you can also run the numbers.
In this one you can change pretty much all assumptions (numbers in blue can be edited) including CDS levels, debt levels and other assumptions.
nakamotoportfolio.com/apps/foss

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Just like in our previous pieces, the idea is to give a framework to understand potential scenarios. Although I keep referring to them as models, these are frameworks. We provide some initial assumptions and you can create your own.

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Read 13 tweets
You ask how #Bitcoin can help #Lebanon & what countries can do with it. Inspired by @JAN3com, I see more paths: tax incentives, clear regulations, education, infrastructure, partnerships, legal recognition, R&D, crossborder collaboration, and integratin BTC in social programs.
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Tax incentives: Governments can encourage the use of #Bitcoin by offering tax breaks or incentives for businesses and individuals who utilize it for transactions, investments, or other purposes.
Establishing regulatory frameworks: Governments can create clear and supportive regulations for the use of #Bitcoin, enabling businesses and individuals to more confidently engage with the technology.
Read 17 tweets
Here's a list of books I recently listed on a FB group that I've read related to finance, investing, trading and Bitcoin.
It's not an all exhaustive list but thought some of you might like to scroll through. Plus a bit of story…..
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I am trying to set up a local meetup and inviting some local business owners and members of the public.

The amount of hostility in these circles is gobsmacking.
It is why I rarely go on FB.

But…plebs….it is time to enter the belly of the beast. We must fish where the fish are….

I was being challenged by some people saying that I didn’t know what I was talking about and that Bitcoin was a scam.
Read 15 tweets
SIX SUGGESTIONS FOR HOW TO DELIVER THE #BITCOIN ORANGE PILL TO A BOOMER YOU LOVE🧡:

A brief thread🧵....👇
SUGGESTION #1 👉 When possible, allow their OWN generation do the talking & convincing.

@LawrenceLepard & @FossGregfoss specifically speak to those at or near retirement age regarding #Bitcoin & the current economic landscape HERE👇
open.spotify.com/episode/78h99q…
SUGGESTION #2 👉 Don't smother them with endless, bewildering jargon.

Boomers watch younger generations get enamored w/ (& spout off about) all sorts of stupid sh*t. They assume #BTC is the same. Do NOT force it on them. Humbly LISTEN to & validate concerns. Learn from them too!
Read 9 tweets
BOLD 🧵

I truly believe #Bitcoin will SAVE 100 MILLION human lives in the 21st century alone.

Why?...

-Could #BTC reduce starvation?
-Prevent (or cause) WW3?
-Hurt (or help) the environment?

Let’s dive into #BTC’s impact on the world and QUANTIFY IT

Ready?… (You aren’t.) 🤯
#Bitcoin is a technological tool.

Like the printing press, fire, telegraph, silk, or the internet all tools have a direct impact on human prosperity.

A tool's wide adoption has incredible second or third order effects, we will explore #Bitcoin's potential positive impact.
First, it should be said that #Bitcoin has already saved thousands of lives.

Even though total adoption is <0.1% and we haven't felt a single global-order benefits yet, #Bitcoin is SAVING LIVES already and nobody can stop it.

Thank you Satoshi.

Read 37 tweets
Why #btc could rip…a thread from a shitty trader who has 35 yrs of mistakes.

In any hedging business the “easiest” way to “pretend” you have shorts that offset longs is by shorting an underlying INDEX to offset a long position in a single name.

The crypto hedge space /2
… is no different. Think of all those players who are likely short #btc or own some delta hedge short position.

These positions include: shitcoins vs #btc, equity in miners vs #btc, equity in crypto exchanges vs #btc, equities in Nasdaq vs #btc, mining lenders vs #btc…/3
This is called being “hedged and wedged”.

Add to this historic highs in open interest on #btc futures AS WELL as potential positions with counterparties who are in bankruptcy and there is a good possibility that the “INDEX” hedge snaps back hard, relative to the other silos…/4
Read 6 tweets
Every reason you would buy the UST30YR right now is twice the reason you should buy #btc. A thread…
The Fed will invoke QE infinity and YCC shielding bonds…

Yes but currency debasement is thus accelerated…therefore #btc over the UST30YR
We are heading to a recession and #bonds always perform in recessions…

Yes but the next recession could be the one that gives up the ghost and QE causes credit contagion and collapse…therefore #btc over UST30YR
Read 5 tweets
Get chances to WIN these custom PCs built by @robeyonekenobi @luke_lafr & @thatgrltrish by supporting #XboxExtraLife2019!

Ft.
@AMDRyzen 3950X CPU
@ASUSUSA RTX 2080 Ti, MB, PSU, AIO
@Seagate SSDs, HDDs
@CORSAIR RAM, AIO

27hr stream ends at 12PM PT
Watch: mixer.com/ExtraLife ImageImage
Check out the PCs that'll be raffled off
Project Scorpio PC: newegg.io/t-scorpio
Holographic Xbox PC: newegg.io/t-holographic
$5 donation goes to the @seattlechildren Hospital #ForTheKids and gives you chance to win these machines. Winners announced near the end of the stream 12PM PT.

Donate here ► bit.ly/XboxExtraLife2…
Watch here ► mixer.com/extralife
Read 3 tweets
Waiting to see any verified Left-wing condemnation of the 8 months pregnant woman stabbed to death in London yesterday @DavidLammy @GaryLineker (all the usual suspects) are they conveniently offline at #Glastonbury to signal their hatred of #Brexit to the point of not caring? 1/6
They prefer the company of white middle class #Remoaners off their faces on class A drugs, whilst non-ironically cheering on a foul-mouthed, drug-taking (if his lyrics are to be believed) rapper, without any comprehension of the damage drug culture is doing to the country. 2/6
This disproportionately affects the lives of the very people they claim (falsely) to be in support of. @stormzy is a joke, a hypocrite which is why he is adored by the Left but hated within his own community for the damage he & his music are doing to it but he is not alone. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
BUFFALO, N.Y. - U.S. Attorney James P. Kennedy, Jr. announced today that Aaron Hill, 31, of Cheektowaga, NY, who was convicted of conspiracy to possess with intent to distribute, and to distribute,
500 grams or more of cocaine, was sentenced to serve 37 months in prison by U.S. District Judge Richard J. Arcara.
Read 10 tweets

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