Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Foresight
Most recents (8)
Not all realists share #Mearsheimer views on Russia's war against Ukraine. I am positioned in the #realpolitik corner while using #geopolitics and #geoeconomics as the main pillars of #foresight.This is my assessment since Dec 2021 (see pinned tweet) on Russia's plan.
Thread🧵👇
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There won't be any peace negotiations no matter how often Germany & France (small-size countries in Europe have no geopolitical weight) call Putin. Once Russia establishes control over Donbas & reaches its war goals in the this phase, Moscow will unilaterally declare ceasefire.
Preventing Russia from winning in this critical phase of the war requires the heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine to sustain the Russian attacks. If Ukraine has to give up on territories in Donbas for the sake of Western appeasement, this won't stop the war. On the opposite.
Interesting study on #transport #foresight connecting with #energy and #climate #governance. Some points and comments (thread)
First of all, đź‘Źđź‘Źđź‘Ź for discussing transport from the perspective of #foreignpolicy and #governance, which is a rarity in this field dominated by engineering!
The study notes global transport sector emits now 8 Gt of C02, but if we want to reach 2°C target, emissions should be reduced to 4.7 Gt and 2Gt for 1.5°C. Big challenge as under current trends we are approaching 12 Gt by 2050.
My first 2 months at @EU_ScienceHub have been fascinating. I’ve begun to explore a rich tradition of scientific excellence spanning nearly 60 years.
Here are some of the things I have discovered so far ⬇️
THREAD
Here are some of the things I have discovered so far ⬇️
THREAD
Our researchers work to support EU policymaking, from conception and design to implementation and monitoring. We have 6 different sites:
🇧🇪Brussels
🇧🇪Geel
🇮🇹Ispra
🇩🇪Karlsruhe
🇳🇱Petten
🇪🇸Seville
ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/about/j…
/3
🇧🇪Brussels
🇧🇪Geel
🇮🇹Ispra
🇩🇪Karlsruhe
🇳🇱Petten
🇪🇸Seville
ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/about/j…
/3
This thread is about understanding Lebanon’s #budget in few questions.
Another thread will explain #Citizen_Budget 2020.
@OpenBudgets 👇
Another thread will explain #Citizen_Budget 2020.
@OpenBudgets 👇
What is the #Budget?
Article 3 of the "Public Accounting Law" defines #budget as “a legislative instrument in which national #revenues & #expenditures are estimated for the upcoming year & by which #tax collection & spending are allowed”.
Article 3 of the "Public Accounting Law" defines #budget as “a legislative instrument in which national #revenues & #expenditures are estimated for the upcoming year & by which #tax collection & spending are allowed”.
State #budgets have evolved to become a tool of #foresight, #planning and #accountability based on programs and #performance assessments.
bit.ly/2JKN0LV
bit.ly/2JKN0LV
So… some personal news.
After almost four and a half happy years running the European Commission’s Directorate-General for #taxation and #customs, I’ll be moving on to new pastures on 1 May.
Before I go, here are some reflections on the past few years. THREAD (a long one!)
After almost four and a half happy years running the European Commission’s Directorate-General for #taxation and #customs, I’ll be moving on to new pastures on 1 May.
Before I go, here are some reflections on the past few years. THREAD (a long one!)
Honestly, it’s been a blast. I’ve had the privilege of leading a truly great team of people in @EU_Taxud. Great expertise, highly committed professionals, and a real family atmosphere, too. A million thanks, #teamTAXUD /2
Whole lot of hot takes out there around #COVID19, foresight, and the #BlackSwan concept | Dear readers, I present to you...the hottest of hot takes: #coronavirus both "is and is not" a black swan, & this is the most reasonable, rigorous, & responsible view
But first, yes...foresight actually works! And not because it can help you "predict" the future, but precisely because it can help you understand complex phenomena and, at best, spot "emerging issues." See: &
And, the folks at @CSIS struck gold: csis.org/analysis/we-pr… Unfortunate use of the word "predict," which literally means "say before" & should be banished from the vocabulary of all futurists. Great stuff from @BryanAlexander here: bryanalexander.org/futures/antici…
A key purpose of futures practice is to invest thought in possible contingencies, so that when something unexpected suddenly happens you are better prepared.
COVID-19 is a vivid illustration of both the importance and the limits of foresight. Let me tell you a story.
<thread>
COVID-19 is a vivid illustration of both the importance and the limits of foresight. Let me tell you a story.
<thread>
This story is about how the first serious game funded by the CDC came about –– a near-future pandemic simulation, back in 2009 –– and how it was overtaken by real events. And what we learned from that. /2
In 2007, my colleague @dunagan23 (now at @iftf) and I were both grads in the futures program at the Uni of Hawaii at Manoa. We had already designed and run immersive scenarios (set in the year 2050) to engage lawmakers and public in the state’s sustainability planning process. /3
Okay, I picked out the invalid assumption before the paragraph, "It's noticeably bigger."
See if you can! :) #foresight #futurist
See if you can! :) #foresight #futurist
The answer is, of course, the assumption of stationarity.
Stationarily means, in this context, that rates don't change over time.
Under the model of stationarity, the odds per year of a violent revolution in the 1800s is identical to the odds this year.
Stationarily means, in this context, that rates don't change over time.
Under the model of stationarity, the odds per year of a violent revolution in the 1800s is identical to the odds this year.
Of course, this isn't likely true. For instance, if you take the years 1750 to 1850 as the reference period, the probability of a violent revolution is 2% per year.
In the next century, it's 0% per year.
In the next century, it's (so far) 0% per year.
In the next century, it's 0% per year.
In the next century, it's (so far) 0% per year.
