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Today’s #CPI report for May showed another very firm depiction of where #inflation currently resides in the U.S., with #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) printing at 0.44% month-over-month and 5.33% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, #headlineCPI data printed 0.12% month-over-month and came in just above 4% year-over-year, with declines in #energy components and some food prices being offset by gains in #shelter and used cars and trucks.
Overall, headline #inflation does appear to be moderating at a faster pace and we believe that the trend in inflation (despite the firmness of core measures in today’s report) is broadly heading in the right direction, relative to the @federalreserve’s inflation target.
. @StateBank_Pak has released disaggregated #trade data for #Pakistan, for the first half of FY23. Some analysis on main trends in 🧵👇👇
1) #Pakistan's #exports have declined in H1 FY23 relative to H1 FY22 by 4%. The fall is driven by goods #exports that fell by 5.8%. 
2) By #destination, the largest #export contractions are observed to the USA, China, the UK and the UAE.
#Pakistan
#Pakistan
The November #CPI report is notable in part due to the fact that it displays the second consecutive month of more moderate price pressures, providing some signal that the underlying trend of #inflation is decelerating.
Turning to the data, #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.2% month-over-month and rose 6.0% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, #headlineCPI data printed 0.1% month-over-month and came in at 7.1% year-over-year, with declines in #UsedCars, medical care and airline fares contributing to this result. Still, both #shelter costs and the food index rose significantly.
What really causes inflation? 🧵
[a thread for normies - like me]
[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.
As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.
In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.
In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:
* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.
** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.
*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.
** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.
*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Now we have dissaggregated @StateBank_Pak data on #Pakistan's #trade performance for the full of the FY22.
This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵
This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵
This 12(!) car #train arrived at #budapestnyugati from #záhony at the #Ukrainian #border this afternoon, it was a special train for the #Ukrainianrefugees fleeing the #WARINUKRAINE
And I have to say that I am positively surprised by how much help is happening in Eastern Europe!
And I have to say that I am positively surprised by how much help is happening in Eastern Europe!
And to put it in context, the "normal" train back to Zahony had 5 cars...
This is at the #keleti station in Budapest, normally this hall is completely empty, now it full with stands and people who #HelpUkrainianRefugees
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:
Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again
Today at 1:15pm PT, register here: event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?…
#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin
Live recap thread⬇️
Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again
Today at 1:15pm PT, register here: event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?…
#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin
Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI
#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.
#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Oct #Inflation released by Stats SA is at 5.0%, unchanged from Sep. #Food & #non-alcoholic beverages; #housing, #utilities; #transport; and #miscellaneous goods & services were the major drivers. Global inflation going up. Inflation no longer transitory, maybe persistent (1/N)
#Core inflation at 3.2%, still very low. #Goods inflation at 7.1%, with #none-durable goods at 8.6%! Services inflation is at 3.0%. #administrered prices (taxes!) rising by a whooping 11.2% (2/N)
CPI inflation excluding administered prices is at 3.8%, way below the #SARB @SAReserveBank mid-point of 4.5%. So, if the SARB hikes tomorrow, which i do not think it should and it will, its fighting inflation caused by the government (3/N)
An efficient #GST with high boyancy, needs uniform 15% rate on 3/4th of Goods & services, exemption(0%) on basic food, drugs, health services & education(~1/10 of G&S), & higher rates (avg 30% inclusive of cess) on cigarettes & Autos(~1/10th). Drop higher revenue/rate obsession
2/gst The #GSTcouncil's obsession with immediate revenue raising by increasing rates, is damaging macro economy, by negatively impacting MSME/informal employment, income & consumption, and doing long term damage to inclusive growth and sustained higher revenues for development
3/gst Though in normal circumstances I recommend revenue neutral reform, in current depressed environment, revenue negative reform of GST is preferable to revenue positive GST reform, because it will provide a demand stimulus which will quickly recover the short term revenue loss
On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. 👇👇👇
By #destination: substantial increases of shipments to #China and the #USA. Stability with #Afghanistan, and contractions in shipments to #UAE.
[#export growth to China and USA is confirmed by mirror data analysis] (3/n)
[#export growth to China and USA is confirmed by mirror data analysis] (3/n)
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits…
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
The #deficit #myth #deficitmyth by @StephanieKelton #MMT modern monetary theory
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 1: The #state should budget like a #household
#RealityCheck : unlike a household, a #SovereignNation, which owns its national #centralbank, issues the #currency it spends
Myth N. 2: #deficit is evidence of #overspending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
#RealityCheck: look to #inflation for evidence of over spending
The purpose of #taxes is not to pay for #government expenditures but to help rebalancing the #wealth distribution #MMT
We learned last week that core #goods #prices continue to remain weak, and indeed over the longer run they’ve witnessed #disinflation.
Meanwhile, while #inflation could see some support alongside a pickup in #wage growth, we think this linkage is much weaker than many suggest: higher wages don’t create meaningfully higher inflation in this era, and corporate #CFOs are beginning to recognize it.
Indeed, we think #inflation is more likely to be driven a bit higher by the weaker #USD, and perhaps a higher monetary base (potential velocity gains) and not so much from #wage increases.
@UNRWA #Gaza #Genf
More than half a million people in #Gaza depend on #food #aid. Every quarter there is a discounted ration per person. The #goods are ordered for the first quarter of the new year, but not yet #paid.
More than half a million people in #Gaza depend on #food #aid. Every quarter there is a discounted ration per person. The #goods are ordered for the first quarter of the new year, but not yet #paid.
Whether the @UN organization can pay the salaries of its 13,000 workers in the #Gaza Strip in December is unclear. In Gaza, under the eyes of #Hamas, @UNRWA operates 276 schools, 22 health centers and distributes food. The unemployment rate is also 41% (Total PA Area 30% 2018).
@UNRWA currently cares for 5.5 million #Palestinians. But they are missing 167 million € to pay everything. It would take at least € 30 million for the current quarter and € 60 million for the second quarter of next year.
Today’s #inflation data came in displaying moderate growth, but doesn’t appear to be accelerating in any significant manner: April core #CPI printed at 0.14% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year, and core PCE sat at 1.55% for the 12-months ending March.
Both this month and over the past several years, we’ve witnessed core #goods disinflation diverge dramatically from higher core #services inflation, which in many respects is one of the strongest signals of where consumption and capital is flowing to in the economy.
From a policy standpoint, the #Fed is meeting its labor market mandate, but clearly its #inflation mandate has been more difficult to achieve and therefore holds a greater impact on policy makers’ decisions.
As the U.S. #economy has transitioned toward a greater focus on #services consumption in recent decades, services PCE nominal growth has never been in recession since the Great Depression, but the goods component has six times.
Further, services #PCE prices have not been negative once since the Great Depression, whereas the #goods component has been eight times.
Finally, when adjusting for #inflation, services PCE real growth has only been in recession once (2008) since the Great Depression, while the goods component has been 10 times! The fact is that as our #economy transitions further toward services, it attains greater stability.
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
