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986,597 people have voted so far in Georgia's 2022 elections. Today's thread is an explainer of how folks can use those numbers to make whatever point they want.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
You'll see a lot of people trying to tell you what these vote totals mean, usually in a way that lines up with what they want to be true.
Here are a few examples of how you can play with that.
Here are a few examples of how you can play with that.
First, let's go the easy route. Assume that all the mail and in-person votes currently cast follow their 2020 statewide breakdown. (D+30 on mail, R+6 on in-person)
That would give Republicans a 27k vote lead.
That would give Republicans a 27k vote lead.
It's Sunday in Georgia, and over 816,000 people have voted in the 2022 election so far.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
The headline numbers for 2018 behavior are that 67% of current voters also voted early in 2018, 17% voted on election day, and 16% didn't vote.
In other words, over 134,000 voter for this election didn't vote in 2018. But how does that compare to 2020 and 2021?
In other words, over 134,000 voter for this election didn't vote in 2018. But how does that compare to 2020 and 2021?
Well, basically everyone who has voted so far also voted in those elections.
The Early/Day of/No Vote numbers are:
2020: 91%/2%/7%
2021: 87%/6%/7%
So only 7% of voters so far, or about 55,000 people, didn't vote in the 2020 and 2021 elections.
The Early/Day of/No Vote numbers are:
2020: 91%/2%/7%
2021: 87%/6%/7%
So only 7% of voters so far, or about 55,000 people, didn't vote in the 2020 and 2021 elections.
A little earlier file update tonight! We're up to 573,598 total votes, with ~519k in-person and ~54k by mail.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
This is a lot of votes, yes. But also, articles like this one are way off. And if the SoS office is giving people this impression, rather than journalists just getting it way wrong, I hope they stop.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/georg…
abcnews.go.com/Politics/georg…
Through 4 days of early voting in 2020 over 1.2 million people had voted: 574k in-person, and 650k by mail.
While the in-person numbers have been comparable, the mail vote is an order of magnitude lower.
While the in-person numbers have been comparable, the mail vote is an order of magnitude lower.
Ok, rested and caffeinated. Let's take a quick peak at early vote numbers so far.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
First, thanks to all you weirdos checking out the site. Hopefully the new AWS backend is working and it won't freeze up like it did at a couple points last year. 
Second, a couple hundred of you have found the new page I launched last night. It looks at a few daily demographic statistics (for in-person voting only) and compares them to 2018 and 2020. Right now it's just gender, White/Black, and 65-Plus.
georgiavotes.com/graphs.php
georgiavotes.com/graphs.php
File processing...
123,834 people voted early today across Georgia. That's nearly 53,000 more than in 2018.
I'm working on a couple new views for how this compares to other elections, so keep an eye out for that this week.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
I'm working on a couple new views for how this compares to other elections, so keep an eye out for that this week.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
For instance, here's a little more info comparing day 1 in-person early voting for 2020 and 2022.
The Americans with Disabilities Act (#ADA) was signed into law 31 years ago today by President George H.W. Bush.
The law was meant to improve access to everyday life, work and our democracy, but voters with disabilities are still fighting to remove barriers to voting. #ADA31
The law was meant to improve access to everyday life, work and our democracy, but voters with disabilities are still fighting to remove barriers to voting. #ADA31
Arizona enacted a law this year that removes voters from the state's permanent early voting list (PEVL) more frequently & requires more steps to obtain a mail ballot. This law creates deliberate barriers for disabled voters in the state. #AZLeg #ADA31
campaignlegal.org/update/arizona…
campaignlegal.org/update/arizona…
Florida & Georgia have passed laws restricting access to drop boxes and the ability to receive and submit mail-in ballots.
GA #DisabilityRights advocate Gaylon Tootle explains how the law creates barriers for voters like him:
#GaPolitics #FlaPol #ADA31
GA #DisabilityRights advocate Gaylon Tootle explains how the law creates barriers for voters like him:
#GaPolitics #FlaPol #ADA31
It's our last daily update before we start getting actual results and there have been 3,093,375 votes recorded. That's an increase of 51,679 over yesterday, with ballots coming from 153 of 159 counties.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
This isn't all of the early votes as we'll still have some received today both via the mail and drop boxes. Plus there may be some more ballots that have been received but not processed yet. So we can probably expect another 50-70k to get added during the counting.
Top-10 counties for votes added yesterday
9,722 - Fulton
6,194 - DeKalb
4,555 - Cobb
4,007 - Gwinnett
2,786 - Chatham
2,234 - Forsyth
1,811 - Henry
1,341 - Bibb
1,212 - Cherokee
1,105 - Paulding
9,722 - Fulton
6,194 - DeKalb
4,555 - Cobb
4,007 - Gwinnett
2,786 - Chatham
2,234 - Forsyth
1,811 - Henry
1,341 - Bibb
1,212 - Cherokee
1,105 - Paulding
A few more votes trickled in yesterday, just a hair shy of 10,000. There are still right at 300,000 mail applications outstanding. During the November election about 80,000 mail votes were accepted on the Mon/Tue of election week.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Not a ton of new stuff worth digging in to honestly, so here are where those new votes came from.
2,323 - Fulton
2,160 - Henry
1,960 - Chatham
1,170 - DeKalb
333 - Walton
267 - Coweta
177 - Troup
142 - Clayton
131 - Baldwin
94 - Brantley
2,323 - Fulton
2,160 - Henry
1,960 - Chatham
1,170 - DeKalb
333 - Walton
267 - Coweta
177 - Troup
142 - Clayton
131 - Baldwin
94 - Brantley
94 - Muscogee
70 - Taylor
47 - Camden
35 - Long
35 - Wilkes
20 - Jasper
18 - Lincoln
15 - Lowndes
13 - Newton
12 - Marion
9 - Jefferson
9 - Rabun
9 - Wayne
6 - Fannin
3 - Forsyth
2 - Bryan
2 - Gwinnett
1 - Pickens
1 - Rockdale
70 - Taylor
47 - Camden
35 - Long
35 - Wilkes
20 - Jasper
18 - Lincoln
15 - Lowndes
13 - Newton
12 - Marion
9 - Jefferson
9 - Rabun
9 - Wayne
6 - Fannin
3 - Forsyth
2 - Bryan
2 - Gwinnett
1 - Pickens
1 - Rockdale
We've made it through the full early voting period, with just a few more days of mail votes to count. 3,032,066 votes have been cast so far, and today we'll try to read some tea leaves.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
As we go through the rest of this it's important to remember that the Election Day margins for the 3 major races in GA were:
Trump +217,250
Perdue +215,208
R's in the Special +200,108
That's what came from almost 1M Election Day voters.
Trump +217,250
Perdue +215,208
R's in the Special +200,108
That's what came from almost 1M Election Day voters.
First, how do these votes look if you take the county-by-county vote totals for mail and in-person voting and apply the November election results by voting method to them?
We have to solve few more problems to answer that well.
We have to solve few more problems to answer that well.
We added almost 250,000 votes yesterday, bringing total turnout to 2,812,994.
Black voters continue to make up over 31% of total voters and 37.6% of voters who didn't vote in November.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Black voters continue to make up over 31% of total voters and 37.6% of voters who didn't vote in November.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Turnout and rates by 2020 primary party ballot.
D: 914,202 - 74.0% turnout
R: 651,935 - 61.2% turnout
Then another 1,246,857 folks who either voted on a non-partisan ballot or didn't vote in the primary.
D: 914,202 - 74.0% turnout
R: 651,935 - 61.2% turnout
Then another 1,246,857 folks who either voted on a non-partisan ballot or didn't vote in the primary.
Demographic breakdown of those non-primary voters.
Female - 52.6%
Male - 47.0%
White - 55.1%
Black - 27.9%
Hispanic - 3.1%
Asian - 3.8%
Other/Unk - 10.1%
18-29 - 15.8%
30-39 - 13.7%
40-49 - 16.9%
50-64 - 31.1%
65-plus - 22.4%
Female - 52.6%
Male - 47.0%
White - 55.1%
Black - 27.9%
Hispanic - 3.1%
Asian - 3.8%
Other/Unk - 10.1%
18-29 - 15.8%
30-39 - 13.7%
40-49 - 16.9%
50-64 - 31.1%
65-plus - 22.4%
Yesterday saw 228,855 votes recorded in the runoff elections, with in-person voting actually surpassing same day voting from the November cycle.
2,566,332 total people have voted.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
2,566,332 total people have voted.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
91,165 of those voters didn't vote in the November election, a percentage that just keeps growing and is now at 3.6%. There are more voters who didn't vote in November so far than there are voters who voted on Election Day (78,804, 3.1% of the total).
Black voters continue to make up over 31% of the total electorate, vs just under 28% in the November early vote.
Yesterday's turnout was 28.1% Black vs 23.7% on the same day for November voting. Here's your @Nate_Cohn-esque chart.
Yesterday's turnout was 28.1% Black vs 23.7% on the same day for November voting. Here's your @Nate_Cohn-esque chart.
Big day of voting yesterday brings us up to 2,337,477 total votes in the January runoffs. Lots of other folks have written some good stuff this morning so today's thread is a series of links.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Here's @Nate_Cohn to start us off with daily breakdowns by race. Takeaway: only one single day of early voting saw Black voters with a lower share of the electorate than the same day in November.
Hope everyone had a good holidays, especially the 36,525 folks who voted in-person over the last 4 days.
We're up to 2,126,254 total votes cast in the runoff with both voting methods about 25% behind the general election's pace.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
We're up to 2,126,254 total votes cast in the runoff with both voting methods about 25% behind the general election's pace.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
The top-6 congressional districts for turnout, compared to their early vote totals in the 2020 general, are all of the Democratic-held seats now.
GA-14, where Trump will be coming next Monday, is dead last by a lot.
GA-14, where Trump will be coming next Monday, is dead last by a lot.
Another data point for you:
60.3% of D primary voters have already voted (745,576) vs 47.4% of R primary voters (504,950).
That leaves another 875,728 early voters so far who did not vote in the D or R primary in June.
60.3% of D primary voters have already voted (745,576) vs 47.4% of R primary voters (504,950).
That leaves another 875,728 early voters so far who did not vote in the D or R primary in June.
New day, new GV numbers. We've officially cracked 2 million early voters now, with 2,062,902 votes cast. The daily pace continues to slow a bit, with IP voting down to just 1% ahead of 2020 general pace.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
I think the big question now is where does early voting come in, and how does that compare to the general. With a few more days of early in-person voting + ~500k mail applications outstanding It seems like 3 million is likely and 3.5 million isn't.
Also, the most observant of you may notice that we have fewer folks in the "unknown" and "other" classifications now. That's because I got a new file yesterday and so we have demographic data on about 30,000 more voters.
We're up to 1,884,692 votes cast in the Georgia runoffs. After tonight's update we'll probably hit 50% of the early vote turnout for the 2020 general, and then it's the holidays and numbers will slow significantly.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Mail votes increased by 58,111 since yesterday, bringing the total mail vote within 19% of the general's at this point.
In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
GA-07 has jumped ahead of GA-09 now in "early turnout compared to early turnout for the general"
In fact, the bottom 4 congressional districts for turnout so far are all folks who signed on to the Texas brief, and MTG.
georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php
In fact, the bottom 4 congressional districts for turnout so far are all folks who signed on to the Texas brief, and MTG.
georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php
1,678,624 people have voted in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 621,098 by mail and just over 1 million in-person.
Overall, vote totals are within 7% of this point in the general election.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Overall, vote totals are within 7% of this point in the general election.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
In-person voting was 154,628 yesterday, marking the 5th straight day of in-person voting lower than during the general. Given that we'll have effectively 0 votes from Thursday-Sunday this week it'll be telling to see where today and tomorrow end up.
While a lot of numbers are slightly down, the percentage of voters who did not vote in the general election is actually climbing. It's up to 2.9% now, representing 49,118 total voters.
Quick update on my end today. 1,471,144 votes in the runoff election so far.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
2 fun stats for you today.
71,713 people who voted by mail in the general election have voted early in-person for the runoff.
Only 34,348 people who voted early in-person in the general have voted by mail in the runoff.
That can def skew the trend of each voting method.
71,713 people who voted by mail in the general election have voted early in-person for the runoff.
Only 34,348 people who voted early in-person in the general have voted by mail in the runoff.
That can def skew the trend of each voting method.
And also, D-leaning congressional districts had a mighty good Friday-through-Sunday voting period. Below is their turnout compared to early votes for the 2020 general.
georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php
georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php
Over 1,123,000 people have cast a vote in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Over 30,000 of them did not vote in the general election in November.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Let's start with some demographic breakdowns. The electorate so far is much more racially diverse than we'd expect at this point, but closer to our expectations from an age perspective.
As mentioned previously, young voters tend to vote later: georgiavotes.substack.com/p/1026-who-vot…
As mentioned previously, young voters tend to vote later: georgiavotes.substack.com/p/1026-who-vot…
The current electorate is just under 55% white. If we include everyone with an approved, outstanding mail ballot that number drops below 54%.
Just as a comparison, the early voting electorate in the general was 56.6% white.
Just as a comparison, the early voting electorate in the general was 56.6% white.
Told you today would be fun.
168,293 early in-person votes were cast yesterday across the state, while another 50,000 mail in votes were processed.
That's 23% more than the first day of early voting in the general.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
168,293 early in-person votes were cast yesterday across the state, while another 50,000 mail in votes were processed.
That's 23% more than the first day of early voting in the general.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Almost 20,000 votes were cast in Fulton, over 15,000 in Dekalb, 10,500 in Gwinnett, and 6,750 in Cobb.
Counties rounding out the top-10 were: Henry, Forsyth, Clayton, Muscogee, Cherokee, and Chatham.
Counties rounding out the top-10 were: Henry, Forsyth, Clayton, Muscogee, Cherokee, and Chatham.
Racial breakdown of voters:
53.9% - White
33.4% - Black
1.7% - Hispanic
2.0% - Asian
9.1% - Other/Unknown
and of applicants:
52.6% - White
32.8% - Black
2.1% - Hispanic
3.0% - Asian
10.6% - Other/Unknown
53.9% - White
33.4% - Black
1.7% - Hispanic
2.0% - Asian
9.1% - Other/Unknown
and of applicants:
52.6% - White
32.8% - Black
2.1% - Hispanic
3.0% - Asian
10.6% - Other/Unknown
Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.
The racial breakdown for these applicants are much more non-white than what we saw in the general, when about 60% of early voters were white.
White: 53.0%
Black: 31.6%
Hispanic: 2.1%
Asian: 3.2%
Other/Unk: 10.6%
White: 53.0%
Black: 31.6%
Hispanic: 2.1%
Asian: 3.2%
Other/Unk: 10.6%
Hooo baby. 46,819 votes recorded yesterday gets us up to 200,995 total votes cast in the runoff elections so far.
And next week we get to start seeing what the early in-person numbers look like too.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
And next week we get to start seeing what the early in-person numbers look like too.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Now, this is a dangerous game to play but I've started looking at some numbers based on the # of applications in so far, and the results from the 2020 general election in each county for mail votes.
First, these metrics were very different for President and the 2 Senate races.
Biden won the mail vote by 398,572 votes (65/34)
Ossoff won by 333,437 (62/36)
Combined D's in the special won by 336,740 (62/36)
Biden won the mail vote by 398,572 votes (65/34)
Ossoff won by 333,437 (62/36)
Combined D's in the special won by 336,740 (62/36)
Yesterday we recorded 32,000 more applications and 42,500 more votes. Vote by mail applications are now within 9% of the general election's total at this point.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
Over 3,300 of these people didn't vote in the general election. I don't know who you are or what you were doing, but ok then.
Three times as many people who DIDN'T VOTE (3,366) have already voted, compared to people who voted on election day (1,055) and have voted by mail.
Three times as many people who DIDN'T VOTE (3,366) have already voted, compared to people who voted on election day (1,055) and have voted by mail.
15 counties now have more mail applications in than they recorded mail votes in the general.
The top one is Sumter County (70.3%/29.1% to Biden in mail voting, 52.0%/47.2% overall).
The top one is Sumter County (70.3%/29.1% to Biden in mail voting, 52.0%/47.2% overall).
We had another 30k votes counted over the weekend bringing us up to 3,912,819 total votes cast so far in the 2020 election. Hopefully a big backlog of mail ballot clears today, and we can hit an even 4 million going in to election day.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
And now that we have most of the data, last week some folks sent in questions they'd like to see answered so I wanted to help answer a few of those today.
First up, is a look at the demographic breakdown of early voters compared to 2016. Here's what that looks like.
Hey everybody, did you hear about early voting in Georgia yesterday? Apparently it happened and people had takes.
I'll try to cut through some of the noise and bring you the good stuff.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
I'll try to cut through some of the noise and bring you the good stuff.
#gapol #gapolitics
georgiavotes.com
First, we had 127,871 people show up in-person and successfully cast a vote yesterday. This is up 41% from 2016's first day total of 90,764.
On top of that, we recorded an additional 34,358 mail-in ballots yesterday for a grand total of 162,229 votes cast.
On top of that, we recorded an additional 34,358 mail-in ballots yesterday for a grand total of 162,229 votes cast.
You've probably seen this called record turnout and for the first day of in-person voting it is!
But we've seen a number of days with more turnout than this. The largest day ever of in-person voting was the final day of 2016, which saw 253,030 people vote.
But we've seen a number of days with more turnout than this. The largest day ever of in-person voting was the final day of 2016, which saw 253,030 people vote.
