Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Most recents (18)
slow clap for everyone who wanted "competition with China but cooperation on climate change".
"Considering China’s dominant position in wafers & the segment’s relatively high barriers for entry, it’s reasonable for China to consider the ban to avoid leaking tech to overseas players"
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
How much could solar installations slow?
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
How much could solar installations slow?
slow clap for Biden's National security advisor Jake Sullivan who chose Cold War with China over climate cooperation. Opposed by so many of us who bluntly said that would not work. It was a fork in the road. policytensor.com/2019/05/23/fea…
On Tuesday 3pm EST, join us at Polycrisis @phenomenalworld for an awesome panel to discuss:
MONEY & THE CLIMATE CRISIS
bit.ly/money-and-clim…
featuring: @MonaAli_NY_US, @rishirbhandary, @AGelpern, @AvinashPersau15, @Brad_Setser, and @adam_tooze
MONEY & THE CLIMATE CRISIS
bit.ly/money-and-clim…
featuring: @MonaAli_NY_US, @rishirbhandary, @AGelpern, @AvinashPersau15, @Brad_Setser, and @adam_tooze
Climate crisis has added fuel to a debt fire. Global south countries borrowing costs have soared just when they need it the most. Many face impossible choices.
This is menu of what must be done. What are political blockages to action on these fronts?
eurodad.org/a_tale_of_two_…
This is menu of what must be done. What are political blockages to action on these fronts?
eurodad.org/a_tale_of_two_…
3/ Burdened by Covid, Debt & Climate crises, Latin & Central Am are at frontlines of 21stC system-level shocks. Green investment, debt write-offs, and bigger welfare states are solutions.
Must-read by Tooze on dollar world-order adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne…
Must-read by Tooze on dollar world-order adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-ne…
RIP #BrunoLatour:
"We need a term, an invocation rather, that designates the state of dependence rather than emancipation and the plan to repair conditions of habitability that have been devastated."
ht @picharbonnier who brought together his last article geopolitique.eu/en/articles/is…
"We need a term, an invocation rather, that designates the state of dependence rather than emancipation and the plan to repair conditions of habitability that have been devastated."
ht @picharbonnier who brought together his last article geopolitique.eu/en/articles/is…
2/"Being a child of the baby boom, I spent my life feeling the threat of nuclear holocaust and without any transition, I have moved on to the threat of ecological collapse. I will therefore not analyze the arrival of war in Ukraine as a breakdown of peace"
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/is…
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/is…
3/ RIP #BrunoLatour. His last essay on the "ecology of war" is haunting.
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/is…
geopolitique.eu/en/articles/is…
Thesis: IPCC report,‘now or never’ if world is to stave off climate disaster carbonbrief.org
Antithesis:Russian gas flows on pipelines to Europe remain steady reut.rs/3x4H4qY
Synthesis: Andreas Malm’s Anti-War, Anti-Carbon @MaxJerneck
lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/…
Antithesis:Russian gas flows on pipelines to Europe remain steady reut.rs/3x4H4qY
Synthesis: Andreas Malm’s Anti-War, Anti-Carbon @MaxJerneck
lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/…
Andreas Malm's 'How to Blow Up a Pipeline (2021)' is cursed with such an incendiary title that people think they get the argument without reading the book.
@kunktation review lays out the argument:
newrepublic.com/article/162247…
@kunktation review lays out the argument:
newrepublic.com/article/162247…
3/ " What does it mean that as capitalism has become truly global, the gravediggers it has created dig not only capitalism’s grave, but also that of much organic life on earth?”- Andreas malm
What must be done? What would Lenin do? lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/…
What must be done? What would Lenin do? lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v43/…
There was a solution to the green problem but it involved deepening European-Russian relations. Crazy how we have terrible war because so many people keep Climate & Geopolitics in separate silos & are unable to do 'joined-up thinking'. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
We'll never know if West-Russia negotiations were done in good faith. December-January 2022:"German Economics Minister Robert Habeck wants to engage Russia economically by cooperating on renewable energy supplies to help de-escalate tensions over Ukraine"
83/ War is brewing in Europe.
Napoleon, 18thC : The Russians have General Winter.
Brussels, 21st C : The Russians have General Gas. Churn out Heat Pumps! Speed up Home Insulations! ft.com/content/a0dab1…
Napoleon, 18thC : The Russians have General Winter.
Brussels, 21st C : The Russians have General Gas. Churn out Heat Pumps! Speed up Home Insulations! ft.com/content/a0dab1…
84/ With forecasts of cold weather and a hot war, Energy markets are VOLATILE right now. A wild day in US Gas Markets with prices doubling and then crashing back down. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
85/ Texas is facing an Arctic blast this week.
Like last year it could freeze oil and gas production, potentially causing another supply shock. Without heat ppl die in homes. Even without the destabilized Climate, gas is unsafe if regulators are captured bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Like last year it could freeze oil and gas production, potentially causing another supply shock. Without heat ppl die in homes. Even without the destabilized Climate, gas is unsafe if regulators are captured bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Pentagon just unclassified its Climate report to the National Security Council.
Department of Defense wants you to know climate change is a "threat multiplier". What are all our poor bases in shithole countries going to do?
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
Department of Defense wants you to know climate change is a "threat multiplier". What are all our poor bases in shithole countries going to do?
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
US defense technocrats will now include Climate in prioritizing threats; in strategies for countering threats; in planning missions of the armed forces; in what weapons to develop and five-year plan for investments that support strategy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
gotta love the big nerd brain energy in Pentagon planners.
Guys guys this climate change thing that our scientists are telling us about for 50 years? What if, like, its too hot for planes to take off or, get this, wildfire smoke makes bombing harder?
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
Guys guys this climate change thing that our scientists are telling us about for 50 years? What if, like, its too hot for planes to take off or, get this, wildfire smoke makes bombing harder?
media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
US- Russia a thread
Worlds largest oil and gas producers? ✅✅
Military budgets many times larger than green investment? ✅✅
Grains in drought?✅✅
Massive forests going up in smoke? ✅✅
Massive chutzpah to create carbon offsets with said forests? ✅✅
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Worlds largest oil and gas producers? ✅✅
Military budgets many times larger than green investment? ✅✅
Grains in drought?✅✅
Massive forests going up in smoke? ✅✅
Massive chutzpah to create carbon offsets with said forests? ✅✅
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/“You wouldn’t always know it, but it went up every year I was president. That whole, suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer & the biggest gas — that was me, people"-@BarackObama
Energy Independence/Dominance is a hell of a drug in both US (green line) & Russia (blue)
Energy Independence/Dominance is a hell of a drug in both US (green line) & Russia (blue)
3/ Biden's infrastructure bill is now ~$2 Trillion over 10 years. Sounds like a lot right? $200 billion each year. But just about $30B each year is for Climate
US spends ~$750B p.a on the military,25 TIMES more than all climate programs #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
US spends ~$750B p.a on the military,25 TIMES more than all climate programs #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
45/ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @BulletinAtomic
,the premier scientific advisors, have warned humanity that nuclear weapons & #climatechange are existential threats.
Both are escalating by active choice of the world's great powers #GeopoliticsOfGHGs thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock…
,the premier scientific advisors, have warned humanity that nuclear weapons & #climatechange are existential threats.
Both are escalating by active choice of the world's great powers #GeopoliticsOfGHGs thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock…
46/ In 2020,US missile defense test became only the 2nd to successfully destroy an ICBM target. "Moscow & Beijing fear the potential for an overnight qualitative breakthrough that may seriously upend their confidence in their nuclear delivery capabilities"
carnegieendowment.org/2020/11/19/new…
carnegieendowment.org/2020/11/19/new…
47/ "We are concerned with the current direction of US-China’s policies, but we believe that the pessimists both overstate the possibility of a US-China war and understate the consequences of possible armed conflict."
@BulletinAtomic on Taiwan Question: thebulletin.org/2021/02/how-th…
@BulletinAtomic on Taiwan Question: thebulletin.org/2021/02/how-th…
28/ Bluntly: You either get a Cold War with China or you get Climate action. You can't get both.
John Kerry has his work cut out. Briefs on greening US-China relations @njtmulder @DebSeligsohn @kellysgallagher #GeopoliticsOfGHGs quincyinst.org/symposium/gree…
John Kerry has his work cut out. Briefs on greening US-China relations @njtmulder @DebSeligsohn @kellysgallagher #GeopoliticsOfGHGs quincyinst.org/symposium/gree…
29/ China's oil company CNOOC on Pentagon blacklist for its offshore exploration in South China Sea & US desire to counter mil-industrial complex. US investors hold ~15% of shares given year to divest. Its global partners inc Exxon/Total #GeopoliticsOfGHGs defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
30/ 190 of 197 nations ratified 2015 Paris Agreement. Wall Street & China want to limit warming. Yes, there is powerful opposition,& escapist elites but is Climate politics Existential?
@adam_tooze on squaring the circle & #GeopoliticsOfGHGs of past 30yrs e-flux.com/journal/114/36…
@adam_tooze on squaring the circle & #GeopoliticsOfGHGs of past 30yrs e-flux.com/journal/114/36…
Xi's UN speech w commitment to CO2 peak *before* 2030 is significant fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…
Its "Green Revolution" framing is also driven by domestic opinion that's angry about joblessness & the megafloods of 2020 where millions suffered in farms & cities
Its "Green Revolution" framing is also driven by domestic opinion that's angry about joblessness & the megafloods of 2020 where millions suffered in farms & cities
China's 40y miracle manages to piss everyone off:
WorldBank: bastards didnt do Washington Consensus
Nationalists: richest dude is Taiwanese & most FDI comes from Japan/US
Left: You privatized half the State?
Greens: Coal & Concrete
Pentagon: We made a Monster
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
WorldBank: bastards didnt do Washington Consensus
Nationalists: richest dude is Taiwanese & most FDI comes from Japan/US
Left: You privatized half the State?
Greens: Coal & Concrete
Pentagon: We made a Monster
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Isn't stabilising dangerous warming in US national interest? Here's former secretary of state James Baker & Shultz making the case for green detente & linkage under conditions of mutually assured destruction. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs clcouncil.org/reports/Foreig…
"Achieving carbon neutrality requires eliminating most fossil fuel use in power generation, heating, industry & transport...IF it is made the guiding vision for invstmt, innovation & policymaking in China"-@laurimyllyvirta
Litmus test: Canceling new Coal energyandcleanair.org/china-2060-car…
Litmus test: Canceling new Coal energyandcleanair.org/china-2060-car…
Climate is Natl Security policy is Industrial policy is Econ policy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Its a Market mover, a Oil & Gas importer vulnerable to blockades, an "Electrostate", a Green Power Politics move, a ecologically fragile state all rolled into one economist.com/briefing/2020/…
Its a Market mover, a Oil & Gas importer vulnerable to blockades, an "Electrostate", a Green Power Politics move, a ecologically fragile state all rolled into one economist.com/briefing/2020/…
"Chinese companies have invested in mines from DRC to Chile..securing access to minerals needed for solar panels,electric vehicles...
Unable to be a Petrostate, it is becoming an Electrostate, investing strategically all along the chain from mine to meter" economist.com/briefing/2020/…
Unable to be a Petrostate, it is becoming an Electrostate, investing strategically all along the chain from mine to meter" economist.com/briefing/2020/…
There's a "mood of nonchalance regarding the possible outcome of an armed clash between China and the United States" in the S China seas. To anyone paying attention, its reminiscent of Sleepwalkers & the Guns of August. ht @mklare1 thenation.com/article/world/…
2/ Drumbeats of war in July have been getting louder compared to escalation in April & May.
3/ July 4: 2 aircraft carriers—USS Nimitz & Reagan joined by nuclear-capable B-52 Stratofortress
July 15: destroyer USS Ralph Johnson conducts freedom of navigation off Sprattly islands
July 21: 2 B-1B supersonic bombers, designed to carry nuclear weapons, overflys S China seas
July 15: destroyer USS Ralph Johnson conducts freedom of navigation off Sprattly islands
July 21: 2 B-1B supersonic bombers, designed to carry nuclear weapons, overflys S China seas
“China under the control of the CCP is, indeed, involved in a gigantic and novel social and political experiment enrolling one-sixth of humanity, a historic project that dwarfs that of democratic capitalism in the North Atlantic.”
From Beijing's pov, History is just beginning.
From Beijing's pov, History is just beginning.
It's Mutually Assured Destruction for China & US to remain🌍s largest producers of Coal & Oil&Gas. Both suffer Billion$+ disasters. Collective damage done by Atlantic hurricanes in 2017 was more than half the Pentagon's budget! Thread on Green Realpolitik
Tooze essay aimed at heart of ideology that separates
domestic from foreign
Intl PolEcon from security
Security from planetary stability.
Neither that ideology nor intellectual division of labour tenable any more #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/…
domestic from foreign
Intl PolEcon from security
Security from planetary stability.
Neither that ideology nor intellectual division of labour tenable any more #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/…
75th anniversary of the Trinity atomic bomb test! Some wondeful stories about how the Manhattan Project influenced science & culture.
insidescience.org/manhattan-proj…
insidescience.org/manhattan-proj…
What would have happened had Trinity test failed? Bombing of Hiroshima & Nagasaki, Soviet declaration of war & invasion of Manchuria, US rejection of the conditional surrender offer, an abortive coup by Japanese officers all took place in the same week!
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/07/16/wha…
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/07/16/wha…
Hasegawa's "Racing the Enemy" (based on US, Soviet & Japanese archives) was eyeopening. Stalin accelerated plans to invade Japan as soon as Truman told him about Trinity test in Postdam. Both atomic bomb & Soviet invasion about securing terms of surrender.
books.google.com/books?id=iPju1…
books.google.com/books?id=iPju1…
"The first concerns China’s integration into the world economy and its geopolitical ascendancy in east Asia. The second is the decline of American power and ascendancy of Russian power in the Middle East, and the third the return of the United States as an energy power."
No matter which end one starts from -- Tariff Wars, Security dilemma, Fossil fuels -- one ends with US, EU, Russia, China 'can't live with you, can't live without you, gotta share the same planet' dilemmas
Probing @HelenHet20 article on hard choices engelsbergideas.com/essays/geopoli…
Probing @HelenHet20 article on hard choices engelsbergideas.com/essays/geopoli…
Significant letter arguing for change in US Russia Policy. Highlights "existential threats of nuclear war & climate change" as reasons for detente. Wld enable shift on China that @HelenHet20 @PatPorter76 envision? #GeopoliticsOfGHGs politico.com/news/magazine/…
Paper:"Compound climate risks in the COVID-19 pandemic".
Nature isn't staying at home. Pandemic is test of govts’ ability to manage catastrophes.
Already, a Cat 5 cyclone is hurtling into West Bengal, Atlantic hurricane season is severe...ht @GhoshAmitav nature.com/articles/s4155…
Nature isn't staying at home. Pandemic is test of govts’ ability to manage catastrophes.
Already, a Cat 5 cyclone is hurtling into West Bengal, Atlantic hurricane season is severe...ht @GhoshAmitav nature.com/articles/s4155…
#CycloneAmphan is now a Category 5 storm. It intensified quickly over the hotter than usual Bay of Bengal and is on track to Kolkota & Odisha in two days. Indian Govt plans evacuation of a million ppl from coasts! realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=HIMA…
hindustantimes.com/india-news/cyc…
hindustantimes.com/india-news/cyc…
Bay of Bengal cyclones fifty years ago would routinely kill upwards of 100,000 people. Both Bangladesh & Orissa govts were forced to take it seriously by democratic movements. Good institutions arose from rubble.
China doubling down on Coal is as much about military strategy —their “Malacca Dilemma”— as it is about cheap industrialization & electricity.
"Energy insecurity" is a euphemism for China's fears: 1) US Navy could blockade Oil & Gas tankers in straits of Malacca 2) US $ sanctions could choke ability to pay for Oil & Gas. Its "Look West" coal boom (ie hedging) is our era's MAD. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Asian Coal Question hangs as centrally around the 21stC as the 'German Question' did in the 20thC. Can live with a China that is authoritarian & powerful but not one that burns coal. Current strategy of containment, pushes China towards coal-powered autarchy. #GeopoliticsofGHGs
