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1/n This #thread will argue that a unique set of historical contingencies has obscured a looming problem for the #oil mkt, one which has been *delayed* by unprecedented events & interventions but not negated. We believe that in 6-8 wks the mkt will be subject to extreme turmoil
/2 RECENCY BIAS: one can hardly read an article on oil w/out being told of crude’s supposed ‘weakness’ since last June’s highs, often accompanied by de rigueur chart crimes showing month-after-month of lower prices. These charts, of course, cherry-pick a ST price spike to make
/3 the case that Demand has somehow collapsed. This is nonsense & ignores the extraordinary SPR maneuvers that were employed in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Simply put, if ~600k b/d are dumped from the SPR, oil prices should drop, & they did. Extra SUPPLY. 222mm bbbls. Historic
