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Here's #HalFinney's back-of-the-envelope calculation from January 2009. Let's update that and turn it into a collective decision problem.
I'm starting with a bunch of simplifying assumptions:
1. The "ultimate payoff of world domination" is fixed at $10m per coin.
2. All-or-nothing scenario: world domination or bust. (I actually disagree with that.)
3. No interest rate or NPV accounting.
In that case we have a simple lottery. For one lottery ticket, you get a payoff of ε * $10M + (1-p) * 0, or simply $10M times ε. So what's your estimate for the world domination probability ε?
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