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#DHI break out to all time new highs and the cycles are biblical. I mean that literally. Spirals within Spirals. Lucas Number Sequence. 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47, 76, 123, 199, 322, 521, 843, 1364, 2207, 3571, 5778
These are the counts in days, weeks, and months.
These are the counts in days, weeks, and months.
that give us the major pivots and there are spirals of these within the major time cycle spiral.
We have a near perfect ABC pattern completed. 666 weeks which is the magic square of the SUN. All numbers between 1...36
We have a near perfect ABC pattern completed. 666 weeks which is the magic square of the SUN. All numbers between 1...36
666 weeks (spirit)in months is 153 (fishes). A metonic cycle 19 years (990.7 weeks) gave us the 10/2011 break out. (Saros Cycle)
Lucas number 843 (weeks) is exactly 16.17 years (golden mean) from the all time low which was the low of the 2008 housing crash. The 18.6 year Real
Lucas number 843 (weeks) is exactly 16.17 years (golden mean) from the all time low which was the low of the 2008 housing crash. The 18.6 year Real
This simple play book is all one has to remember and execute on, get in alignment for each cycle....multiple bottoms incoming. Focus and control ones emotions, understanding reversion to mean whether down 95% (>8x return if < 0.5x 2026 CF) or 97.5% (>16x if <0.25)
#investing101
#investing101
Finding despondent sellers is easy....
#uranium sector as many have taken 60% bath from 2021 highs, 10-30% further downside possible
#crypto bros in Dec 2022
#REIT's where dividends go to zero and are in refinancing stress
#regionalbanks when under intense bank run news flow
#uranium sector as many have taken 60% bath from 2021 highs, 10-30% further downside possible
#crypto bros in Dec 2022
#REIT's where dividends go to zero and are in refinancing stress
#regionalbanks when under intense bank run news flow
#homebuilders when selling prices move to negative gross margins to move stock
#autodealers with negative gross margins
#Pakistan on political and economic uncertainty
#Poland on war uncertainty
#Brazil on economic uncertainty
#autodealers with negative gross margins
#Pakistan on political and economic uncertainty
#Poland on war uncertainty
#Brazil on economic uncertainty
#commodities #uranium
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out
These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....
#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
