Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #InThisTogetherOhio
Most recents (24)
⭐️🧵 - No one can seem to find all of the new hospital admissions that the CDC is counting.
A study of the Columbus area data.
A study of the Columbus area data.
When I think the absurdity must have reached its peak, I dig a little deeper and find even more impressive ridiculousness.
Today, I looked at CDC’s Health Service Area that includes Franklin (Columbus), Delaware, Madison, Fayette and Pickaway counties - a region that contains over 1.6 million residents and several major hospital systems.
🧵 - Perspective.
Is Ohio 'on fire' with COVID right now?
Is Ohio 'on fire' with COVID right now?
Here we go again, the state is suddenly 'on fire' with COVID. Counties, institutions and businesses are suddenly reissuing mask mandates/advisories and panic is already ensuing.
Why?
Because this week's CDC Map of Fear update was a doozy, with most of the state now being at yellow (medium) and orange (high) alert levels (see below).
Because this week's CDC Map of Fear update was a doozy, with most of the state now being at yellow (medium) and orange (high) alert levels (see below).
⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
🧵Because Ohio's COVID 'case' definition isn't expansive enough..
Along with yesterday's admission that cases were declining, Dr. Vanderhoff also announce a new adjustment to how we will count 'cases' going forward.
🧵Because Ohio's COVID 'case' definition isn't expansive enough..
Along with yesterday's admission that cases were declining, Dr. Vanderhoff also announce a new adjustment to how we will count 'cases' going forward.
First of all, Ohio has one of the most expansive 'case' definitions (if not THE most expansive) of any state. We count all PCR positives, regardless of symptoms or contact like other states. But we also count 'probables' as full 'cases'.
Most other states separate these 'probables' from the confirmed by PCR cases. Not Ohio. They are full and equal 'cases' with symptomatic, low cycle threshold PCR positives.
🧵Well, yesterday, Dr. Vanderhoff in his press conference finally got with the program and said "We are seeing early indicators that cases appear to be peaking and beginning to point toward a decline."
.....
.....
.....
(video: tinyurl.com/3e2khvxx)
.....
.....
.....
(video: tinyurl.com/3e2khvxx)
I'm so glad he's so timely with that information. Although to anyone who actually looks at the data itself, it's been pretty clear for weeks now that we are declining.
Not 'starting', not 'early indicators' not 'appears' - it's right there, glaringly obvious, nothing but their own data, attached to this post and a hundred others just like it for all to follow along.
So here's a thought experiment as we watch the v-starts continue to fall with no sign of any increased interest from those who have yet to take it.
It has been put out there in the new models that having 68% of people injected is a 'low' coverage number for their calculations, while 83% (for the moment) is their goal.
But what does that mean in terms of how long it will take at our current rate of V-uptake?
I've made comments previously about how 'respectful' this virus is of our holidays both before the weekend and now after -
- for those of you who haven't been following me for the long term, I think I should re-clarify what I mean by its 'respect' & why it is so important in understanding the actual danger of this virus in terms of true illness and not just people testing positive with no ill effect.
Obviously, the virus isn't actually 'respectful' - it's a virus. Holidays and weekends are meaningless when it comes to illness. You get sick when you get sick whether it's a holiday or not.
So some really fascinating misinformation today - we've had a huge 'jump' in newly reported cases! Nearly TRIPLED! Everybody panic!! And they're nearly all confirmed cases! Double panic!
Must be that new Delta variant, right?
Or maybe the brand new 4th of July variant?
Must be that new Delta variant, right?
Or maybe the brand new 4th of July variant?
But the media tells us it must be bad!
(vindy.com/.../daily-covi…)
(vindy.com/.../daily-covi…)
Well, interestingly enough, our new probable cases added in the last 14 days is only 19 more than yesterday's (71 vs 53) and the total new confirmed cases increased by just 1 from yesterday to today (139 to 140).
Sliding downwards to 165 total cases per day for the whole state over the last 14 days.
1.87 total cases per county per day.
1.87 total cases per county per day.
We are now at 96 confirmed cases per day over the last 7 days, just 1.09 cases per county per day.
Can I just point out how silly this is? Are we really masking so much harder (my eyes tell me that even in the eastern suburbs of Cleveland that there are fewer and fewer masks around).
Apologies upfront for the complexity of this post today, but the delaying of the 'emergency' meeting regarding myocarditis in younger individuals is beyond shocking and irresponsible.
In this post I have attached my commentary directly to each of these images, please read each and consider them carefully.
This article details cases of myocarditis in younger men, in particular, following mRNA accines. Note the relative specificity of timing - usually within 4 days after the second dose.
Note the very high rate for individuals between 16-30 years of age.
Also note the date - 4/27/21
Note the very high rate for individuals between 16-30 years of age.
Also note the date - 4/27/21
Cases, of course, continue to fall, with ~239 total cases reported per day over the last 14 days, which equates to just 2.71 cases per county per day.
We're down to just 878 confirmed cases over the last 7 days - which equates to just 125 cases **for the whole state** per day, and 1.42 confirmed cases per county per day.
Our 'probable' cases remain proportionally high, even with a higher number of reported cases today. Interestingly - for whatever reason we have returned to having a more significant number of reported cases occurring greater than 2 weeks ago.
We have now dropped to just 914 confirmed cases over the last 7 days. That's 130 cases per day. 1.48 cases per county per day. If we go with total numbers over 14 days, we're at 2.9 cases per county per day.
Our percentage of 'probable' cases has continued to remain high. As a reminder to those who critique my focus on the ridiculousness of continuing to count 'probables' as full cases, I direct their attention to fda.gov/medical-device…
Our vaccinations have, as expected, continued to fall, though today's reported numbers have bounced up from yesterday's record lows. And again, these numbers will be interesting to watch after Friday's 'emergency' meeting about myocarditis.
So here we are - as of June 5th we have officially dropped below the magical 50 cases/100,000 metric that Gov. DeWine set for us on March 4th. Once this goal was met, we were told, ALL health orders were to be removed.
Please watch the attached video to hear it yourself how explicit he is.
But, as always, he never keeps his promises. He moves that goalpost yet again.
There are many orders still in place, specifically regarding long-term care facilities and at-home care services.
There are many orders still in place, specifically regarding long-term care facilities and at-home care services.
I've decided to split today's misinformation into two parts - first, the cases:
Absolute collapse are the two words to describe them. Although the proportion of probables is up again - coincidentally at the same time of the week as it was last week and the week before and so on.
Absolute collapse are the two words to describe them. Although the proportion of probables is up again - coincidentally at the same time of the week as it was last week and the week before and so on.
Almost like there's a certain number of antigen tests being performed in the state every week, and that these antigen tests have a certain false positivity rate. But I'm sure this pattern is just coincidence.
But the other great news is that at this rate, within just 2 days we will have *magically* reached our Metric of Freedom. Coincidentally right when they thought we might!
Well, someone clearly wants this whole cases thing to end, and end fast. We continue our staggering plummet in cases.
In just the past 5 days, we have dropped over 2k total cases over 14 days, if we continue this trend, in 5 days, we will be under 50/100k over 14 days. Woohooo!
In just the past 5 days, we have dropped over 2k total cases over 14 days, if we continue this trend, in 5 days, we will be under 50/100k over 14 days. Woohooo!
Again, I am sure this has *nothing at all* to do with the fact that for the last 3 days we have data for, the number of tests given has fallen between just 9000 and 17,000 total tests given - far below the 60,000+ given daily throughout the months of March and April.
⭐️ Fun fact: we have the same positivity rate now with just 9000 tests given as when there were 60,000 tests given. But for sure our 'cases' aren't being influenced by testing!
🤔Things that make you go 'Huh....'
Those of you who have spent the time closely watching the changes in the csv file (from coronavirus.ohio.gov) day to day know how random it is in there. Each new csv file has changes in it.
Those of you who have spent the time closely watching the changes in the csv file (from coronavirus.ohio.gov) day to day know how random it is in there. Each new csv file has changes in it.
Obviously, there are newly added cases in the near term, but what is wacky are all the changes that are *constantly* happening on days much further in the past. Cases are added, but they are also *subtracted.*
It is usually all over the place though, and not big numbers - a couple added here, a few subtracted there. But as I have been doing the daily cases/100,000 data collection, I noticed something very odd happening.
from 05/1/21
Here's your daily dose of 'misinformation that could cause physical harm.'
You know - data pulled directly from coronavirus.ohio.gov (go check it all for yourself - it's all right there for anyone to look at and double check!)
Here's your daily dose of 'misinformation that could cause physical harm.'
You know - data pulled directly from coronavirus.ohio.gov (go check it all for yourself - it's all right there for anyone to look at and double check!)
I'm torn about the designation, honestly. Because I rather agree with the factcheckers, the manipulation and distortion put out there by ODH and Gov. DeWine has been causing a whole lot of harm.
But censorship is never the answer. Demonstrating over and over again with their own data what is really going on is the answer.
So, Delaware County has triggered indicator #6, 'increase' in new hospital admissions again.
Let's take a look, shall we?
Let's take a look, shall we?
Please look at the above graphic showing indicator #6 and a spreadsheet showing the 'hospitalizations.' First, note that this graph is a 7 day moving average. Each point represents 7 full days all averaged together. In order to have a value of '0' it's not just one day with 0.
It's at least 7. And on this graph, we see that there were 11 days without a single hospitalization from 4/2 and 4/11 there were 0 hospitalizations. And then again, there have been NO HOSPITALIZATIONS since 4/16.
A letter was sent by President Kristina Johnson, of The Ohio State University, today to the OSU community regarding NEXT FALL.
Attached, please read two excerpts and let it just sink in.
Attached, please read two excerpts and let it just sink in.
There will be no end to testing (not even for those who have complied!), no end to distancing, no end to masking.
NO END.
NO END.
Those who still believe that there will be anything resembling sanity or normalcy or the simple ability to be allowed to gauge risk in the next couple of months are sadly mistaken.
The only way this stops is if enough people *say* it stops.
#InThisTogetherOhio
The only way this stops is if enough people *say* it stops.
#InThisTogetherOhio
- Numbers have meaning. -
They don't just come from the ether. In Ohio (and many other places now) we are again focused on easily manipulated 'cases' and more specifically the now all-important 'cases per 100,000.'
They don't just come from the ether. In Ohio (and many other places now) we are again focused on easily manipulated 'cases' and more specifically the now all-important 'cases per 100,000.'
Governor DeWine likes to say that it's a standard metric that they've been using all along (though I've noticed of late he no longer tries to tie it directly to the CDC's usage anymore, hmmmm) And it is a standard metric for the CDC. But not how it it being used in this instance.
This metric has been used for a long time for tracking the flu, and indeed, 50 cases/100,000 is the standard 'epidemic level' but what Gov. DeWine does not tell us is that it **matters how long we count for.**
- Prevalence -
I have been criticized for the focus I have been putting on 'probable' cases for the last month or so. 1/3rd of our cases are 'probable,' so what? "They're mostly just positive antigen test cases! Just as good as PCR confirmed!"
I have been criticized for the focus I have been putting on 'probable' cases for the last month or so. 1/3rd of our cases are 'probable,' so what? "They're mostly just positive antigen test cases! Just as good as PCR confirmed!"
Well, according to the FDA, no. The FDA has been very explicit that antigen tests need to be used in a very conscientious way. Specifically, that to properly interpret antigen tests results, the provider needs to take into account the prevalence of the disease in the region.
Please see fda.gov/.../potential-…... to see their exact recommendations, with a special focus on the section I have attached in the first image.
From that clip, it is clear that prevalence is an incredibly important number to understand.
From that clip, it is clear that prevalence is an incredibly important number to understand.
⬇️⬇️⬇️ The "Math" of Fear
As it is Thursday, I have a post for you today in anticipation of Gov. DeWine's new Maps of Fear which he has tried to phase in. I have previously discussed both the new red and blue maps and their issues -
As it is Thursday, I have a post for you today in anticipation of Gov. DeWine's new Maps of Fear which he has tried to phase in. I have previously discussed both the new red and blue maps and their issues -
- but today I hope to illustrate even more clearly what level of manipulation is going on, particularly with the new blue 'ICU Utilization' map.
Attached I have two images.
The first is a hyper-simplistic (and unrealistic) but illustrative example of the calculations that the new blue map goes through to arrive at its numbers.
The first is a hyper-simplistic (and unrealistic) but illustrative example of the calculations that the new blue map goes through to arrive at its numbers.
So here's something interesting about our latest 'surge'. If one goes to coronavirus.ohio.gov/.../covi.../da… you can toggle between 'confirmed' cases, 'probable' cases and both of them together.
So what is a 'confirmed' case? That would be any laboratory confirmed 'case' - any positive PCR, antigen or antibody test, with all the issues of false positivity and hypersensitivity and non-infectiousness that go along with all of those tests.
A 'probable' case does not even have a positive test result associated with it. All it requires are symptoms. Maybe an epidemiological link. We are now in the middle of what used to be referred to as 'flu season' when there is a wide variety of respiratory illnesses that exist -
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Playing Number Games: Part Two
In my last post, I showed how the new 'Key Measures' ICU map was distorting the data by looking only at the comparison of COVID positive (not necessarily ill with COVID) patients versus -
In my last post, I showed how the new 'Key Measures' ICU map was distorting the data by looking only at the comparison of COVID positive (not necessarily ill with COVID) patients versus -
- vs the number of total patients in the ICU - not the percentage of COVD positive patients out of the total number of ICU beds.
So what if they went back to simply the percentage of COVID positive patients out of all available ICU beds? First, the numbers would not be as scary, and second, the total number of beds available in a region is not stable from one day to the next.
⭐️⭐️⭐️ Playing Number Games.
As noted in my last post, Gov. DeWine has signaled a movement away from the Ohio Public Health Advisory System (aka, the Map of Fear) because under the new rules, the state will be stuck in red perpetually with sufficient testing.
As noted in my last post, Gov. DeWine has signaled a movement away from the Ohio Public Health Advisory System (aka, the Map of Fear) because under the new rules, the state will be stuck in red perpetually with sufficient testing.
So to replace this map, he announced two new maps, to be updated weekly and found at coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/OPHASM/…
These two measures look at cases per capita WHICH CAN BE CONTROLLED SOLELY BY TESTING WITH FAULTY TESTS AND IS SEVERELY PUNITIVE TO RURAL COUNTIES.
These two measures look at cases per capita WHICH CAN BE CONTROLLED SOLELY BY TESTING WITH FAULTY TESTS AND IS SEVERELY PUNITIVE TO RURAL COUNTIES.
The second map shows ICU utilization by region (first attached image), and these percentages look quite alarming.
