Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #InflationExpectations
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At yesterday’s #FOMC meeting, the Committee revealed more expected tightening and further steps toward #tapering #asset purchases than they had previously. We see these as steps in the right direction.
Yesterday’s @federalreserve statement and press conference suggest that the Committee believes progress has been made toward its goals, but that there’s still some room to go to hit the recently re-defined objective of maximum #employment.
Still, it’s now time to set up for the end of this long-running #EmergencyPolicy-focused movie.
While our February 18th monthly client call argument for rising #RealRates appeared prescient, we were surprised by the magnitude of last week’s #move and would expect a more benign evolution toward #equilibrium going forward.
Taking a stab at periodizing the past year: 1) in Feb/Mar 2020 the Covid crisis was priced into #markets, real #rates spiked higher, #inflation breakevens collapsed and #investors scrambled to raise #cash as the #SPX experienced its fastest 30% drawdown in history. 
