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Doing a review of the accuracy of each survey data collection mode in 2020, as we do basically every year.
The findings are really worth a show, which will be the topic of #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow.
Will drip some preview findings on this thread... but polling must evolve.
The findings are really worth a show, which will be the topic of #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow.
Will drip some preview findings on this thread... but polling must evolve.
Of course, data sourcing itself also had an impact on accuracy — meaning voter files vs. self-reported, etc — but the long and short of it:
Live caller, which is media preferred and typically a last resort for us in reaching groups like millennial males, is just unneeded now...
Live caller, which is media preferred and typically a last resort for us in reaching groups like millennial males, is just unneeded now...
We reached them and other difficult groups with other modes/methods, for less money, and with far more accuracy.
Strictly sourcing live caller with voter files and applying a tight LV model definitely resulted in missing more GOP-friendly “new” voters. Only spotted new D votes.
Strictly sourcing live caller with voter files and applying a tight LV model definitely resulted in missing more GOP-friendly “new” voters. Only spotted new D votes.
Newsflash: @JoeBiden NEVER led @realDonaldTrump in Ohio, nor other states such as Florida.
Remember @FoxNewsPoll: Biden +3?
Total BS.
Ohio was always Trump +>6.
Recall #InsideTheNumbers when I showed you how badly data must be manipulated to find that.
Remember @FoxNewsPoll: Biden +3?
Total BS.
Ohio was always Trump +>6.
Recall #InsideTheNumbers when I showed you how badly data must be manipulated to find that.
On that episode of #InsideTheNumbers, we discussed the results of Ohio in the poll we conducted for @EpochTimes and crunched live raw data on air from responses we separately gathered after @FoxNewsPoll Biden +3.
It was incompetence. A lie. Or both.
Watch it. 👆. You'll see
It was incompetence. A lie. Or both.
Watch it. 👆. You'll see
Worth noting, after the @FoxNewsPoll showing Biden +3 in Ohio, the Tiny Crystal Balls moved Ohio to "Toss Up".
Why? Because demographics and other predictive indicators suggested it was one?
No, folks.
Because they have tiny crystal balls and poll-readers. Bad ones at that.
Why? Because demographics and other predictive indicators suggested it was one?
No, folks.
Because they have tiny crystal balls and poll-readers. Bad ones at that.
If the vote was held today, @foxnewspoll would be a 10-pt point miss. In the raw we collected, @realDonaldTrump was way up in Ohio.
Trying weighting vars for #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow, there's no realistic way we can get to a lead for @JoeBiden.
47/42 is as close as it gets.
Trying weighting vars for #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow, there's no realistic way we can get to a lead for @JoeBiden.
47/42 is as close as it gets.
The ultimate problem we found for Biden in Ohio, is that he's getting mauled in crossover and there are now more Republicans in Ohio than Democrats. Splitting or barely winning indies is just not enough.
Unless you live call to metro areas and only get Bill Kristol GOPers.
Unless you live call to metro areas and only get Bill Kristol GOPers.
Our crossover was 12+ D for Trump and around 6% R for Biden. That's the kind of realignment we're seeing.
Indies were slightly for Biden but not at all significant. I suspect they're being packed in the Democratic split.
Indies were slightly for Biden but not at all significant. I suspect they're being packed in the Democratic split.
1. Here’s the take, more of course on #InsideTheNumbers tomorrow morning.
Republicans put forward rational policy arguments, and did so with human interest stories.
It’s Day One, granted. But this was a positive, upbeat juxtaposition to the negative, dark convention last week.
Republicans put forward rational policy arguments, and did so with human interest stories.
It’s Day One, granted. But this was a positive, upbeat juxtaposition to the negative, dark convention last week.
2. Frankly, while@it is just Day One. I’m a little stunned by how good that was done. For people who have been around a long time, it’s not the norm to see Republicans do so damn well.
The theme was the right one, and it was visually antithetical to the picture Democrats painted
The theme was the right one, and it was visually antithetical to the picture Democrats painted
3. A party and their nominee must tell people what they are going to do to make their lives and communities better. That requires a rational policy argument, which can be sexy.
We just saw it.
Also, vast majority of Americans do not hate themselves or their country.
We just saw it.
Also, vast majority of Americans do not hate themselves or their country.
1. @GOP & @NVGOP are suing Clark County for hiding public records re: deal Democrat-dominated county comm struck w/ @DNC for June 9.
Pic 1: NV voter file excluding deceased & movers.
Pic 2: NOT excluding them.
Pic 3: Clark ONLY excluding them.
Pic 4: Clark ONLY NOT excluding.
Pic 1: NV voter file excluding deceased & movers.
Pic 2: NOT excluding them.
Pic 3: Clark ONLY excluding them.
Pic 4: Clark ONLY NOT excluding.
Like I said, 1) people see what they want to see. 2) The "blue wave" premise was wrong to begin with.
A "wave" engulfs. It did not in 2018.
Democrats won a slightly higher than avg. number in the U.S. House, and lost more than the avg in the U.S. Senate for 1st term inc eln.
A "wave" engulfs. It did not in 2018.
Democrats won a slightly higher than avg. number in the U.S. House, and lost more than the avg in the U.S. Senate for 1st term inc eln.
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — This morning on #InsideTheNumbers, we'll wrap up the special elections in California and Wisconsin, discuss the latest data on COVID-19 infections in reopening states, and unmask Joe Biden!
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (Facebook Live) — This morning on #InsideTheNumbers, we'll wrap up the special elections in California and Wisconsin, discuss the latest data on COVID-19 infections in reopening states, and unmask Joe Biden! facebook.com/PeoplesPunditD…
Of course we're going to talk about #CA25 today on #InsideTheNumbers. But you'll have to watch to hear my thoughts outside of this one bit...
Garcia's 56% to 44% lead is bigger than we projected w/ 70% reporting, which you'd know if you watched yesterday.
Garcia's 56% to 44% lead is bigger than we projected w/ 70% reporting, which you'd know if you watched yesterday.
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (Facebook Live) — On ‘Inside The Numbers' Episode 28, we discuss the special election results in CA-25, WI-7, and the collapse of collusion. facebook.com/PeoplesPunditD…
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On ‘Inside The Numbers' Episode 28, we discuss the special election results in CA-25, WI-7, and the collapse of collusion. ppdnews.us/rq1WQOI
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (PPD) — On #InsideTheNumbers, we'll discuss the special elections in CA-25 and WI-7, the unmasking of Michael Flynn and more including COVID-19 and markets. ppdnews.us/brwfO0E
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (YouTube) — On #InsideTheNumbers, we'll discuss the special elections in CA-25 and WI-7, the unmasking of Michael Flynn and more including COVID-19 and markets.
Don't forget to subscribe on YouTube!
Don't forget to subscribe on YouTube!
Watch Live 10:00 AM EST (Facebook Live) — On #InsideTheNumbers, we'll discuss the special elections in CA-25 and WI-7, the unmasking of Michael Flynn and more including COVID-19 and markets.
Don't forget to Like the Facebook Page! facebook.com/PeoplesPunditD…
Don't forget to Like the Facebook Page! facebook.com/PeoplesPunditD…
