Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #IsraElex4
Most recents (21)
38.01/ Week 38, April 4-9, 2021, begins here.
Week 37 linked below
Week 37 linked below
38.02/ From last night, following the 9 Day Passover Of Twenty-Twenty-One
38.03/ The wisdom/motivation of changing the name associated with your group depends on who gave the name in the first place.
If the majority imposed the original name: understandable way to reframe stigma
If you chose the original name: you're not fooling anybody prunes
If the majority imposed the original name: understandable way to reframe stigma
If you chose the original name: you're not fooling anybody prunes
#Israelex4 update: 4,435,805 votes tallied (+6,287).
No changes:
Likud 30
Yesh Atid 17
Shas 9
Blue & White 8
Yamina 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
UTJ 7
New Hope 6
RZP 6
Meretz 6
Joint List 6
Ra'am 4
No changes:
Likud 30
Yesh Atid 17
Shas 9
Blue & White 8
Yamina 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
UTJ 7
New Hope 6
RZP 6
Meretz 6
Joint List 6
Ra'am 4
Updated candidate chart (I'm not calling it "Candidates at risk" anymore because the results are pretty much final and nobody here is at risk): 
We have a new record for fewest votes in a national election: The Human Dignity Party, with 196.
(The Democratic Party has only 59, but they dropped out of the race - those votes will be removed from the count just before it is certified.)
(The Democratic Party has only 59, but they dropped out of the race - those votes will be removed from the count just before it is certified.)
#Israelex4 update: 4,351,786 votes tallied (+61,410).
No changes:
Likud 30
Yesh Atid 17
Shas 9
Blue & White 8
Yamina 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
UTJ 7
New Hope 6
RZP 6
Meretz 6
Joint List 6
Ra'am 4
No changes:
Likud 30
Yesh Atid 17
Shas 9
Blue & White 8
Yamina 7
Lieberman 7
Labor 7
UTJ 7
New Hope 6
RZP 6
Meretz 6
Joint List 6
Ra'am 4
Candidates at risk:
The Joint List continues to fall and is in some ways now more likely than Shas to lose a seat (in contrast to what I said in my tweet of two minutes ago!).
If that's the case, the Likud really might gain a seat at their expense as more votes come in.
The Joint List continues to fall and is in some ways now more likely than Shas to lose a seat (in contrast to what I said in my tweet of two minutes ago!).
If that's the case, the Likud really might gain a seat at their expense as more votes come in.
Meretz is still in grave danger of losing a seat to Labor. New Hope is still in grave danger of losing a seat to Yamina.
Prior to this update I'd have told you that those two scenarios were getting more unlikely. Now I'm not so sure.
Prior to this update I'd have told you that those two scenarios were getting more unlikely. Now I'm not so sure.
With the CEC actively tallying the absentee ballots for #Israelex4, let's talk a bit about how the results might change.
The first thing to realize is that nobody knows how the absentee ballots will lean, because this year they include COVID patients and citizens voting in the airport on their way into the country and other demographically ambiguous groupings.
All we know is that there are more of them. You'll see media outlets claim that the absentee ballots this time are worth 11 or even 13 seats.
This is true but misleading: no one party will get 100% of the absentee ballots.
This is true but misleading: no one party will get 100% of the absentee ballots.
So, with what appears to be all of the regular ballots counted, and the CEC about to start on the absentee ballots, where do we stand with #Israelex4?
First, the seat counts:
First, the seat counts:
The party closest to the threshold is Ra'am, but it is not even close to being in danger. We would have to count 916,502 absentee ballots without finding a single Ra'am vote for the party to fall, and there just aren't that many.
Ra'am did however benefit from the one party to fall beneath the threshold: The New Economic Party could have had enough votes to receive one seat, but that seat went to Ra'am instead.
#Israelex4 major update: 1,873,416 votes tallied (42.13% of the vote).
Results so far:
Likud 32
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 10
UTJ 9
Yamina 8
Lieberman 8
RZP 7
Blue & White 7
New Hope 6
Labor 6
Joint List 6
Meretz 5
Ra'am has fallen below the threshold!
Results so far:
Likud 32
Yesh Atid 16
Shas 10
UTJ 9
Yamina 8
Lieberman 8
RZP 7
Blue & White 7
New Hope 6
Labor 6
Joint List 6
Meretz 5
Ra'am has fallen below the threshold!
Ra'am is at 3.24% of the vote, less than 300 votes below the threshold (which stands at 60525 votes).
elections24.dicta.org.il is now no longer predicting that Ra'am will be in the Knesset.
elections24.dicta.org.il is now no longer predicting that Ra'am will be in the Knesset.
Right now Ra'am's lost seats go to the Likud (2), Yamina, and Sa'ar (1 each).
If we stopped counting votes now, this would be the most damaging fall below the threshold in Israel's history. ALL FOUR SEATS went to right-wing parties. We have never seen a bloc lose more than two.
If we stopped counting votes now, this would be the most damaging fall below the threshold in Israel's history. ALL FOUR SEATS went to right-wing parties. We have never seen a bloc lose more than two.
A few more thoughts on the exit-polls. Netanyahu just tweeted thanking Israeli citizens for “a massive win for the right and the Likud under my leadership.” He may have won, but he knows it’s still to early to call. He needs to establish a victory narrative as soon as possible>
Netanyahu’s majority may grow in the actual results, but there’s still a considerable chance it shrinks and all it takes is one less seat for his bloc and it’s stalemate again. And even if he has his majority, it’s a coalition of 61 headaches where every MK has a gun to his head>
The first thing Netanyahu will do after his victory speech (actually, he’s already trying to do it now) is to find more sources of support, beyond his “bloc”. He needs some leeway if he doesn’t want to blackmailed daily by his “natural partners”, he needs some news ones. But who?
Exit polls for the #IsraElex4
Channel 13:
Likud 33
Yesh Atid 16
Yisrael Beiteinu: 8
B & W: 8
Shas:
Joint List: 8
Labor: 7
UTJ: 7
Yakima: 7
Mertez: 7
National Religious Party: 6
New Hope: 5
Likud 33
Yesh Atid 16
Yisrael Beiteinu: 8
B & W: 8
Shas:
Joint List: 8
Labor: 7
UTJ: 7
Yakima: 7
Mertez: 7
National Religious Party: 6
New Hope: 5
Kan 11:
Likud: 31
Yesh Atid: 18
Shas: 9
Joint List: 8
National Religious Party: 7
Yamina: 7
Labor: 7
Yisrael Beiteinu: 7
B&W: 7
Mertez: 6
New Hope: 6
Likud: 31
Yesh Atid: 18
Shas: 9
Joint List: 8
National Religious Party: 7
Yamina: 7
Labor: 7
Yisrael Beiteinu: 7
B&W: 7
Mertez: 6
New Hope: 6
Exit polls are going to be “dramatic and decisive” according to News13.
Usually code language for good news for the right 🤦🏼♂️
#Israel #Gaza
Usually code language for good news for the right 🤦🏼♂️
#Israel #Gaza
Exit pollers will also say that the real results may vary from the exit polls (as always) due to large amount of absentee ballots.
In the last 30 minutes a single rocket was launched from #Gaza into #Israel, it impacted in an open area.
The open area impact was near Be'er Sheva.
#Israel|i PM Netanyahu was reportedly visiting Beer Sheva at the time of the rocket launch as part of his last-minute campaigning for #IsraElex4
In advance of reporting on the #Israelex4 results tonight, here's a thread of frequently asked questions that I get every election. I will be adding to it periodically over the course of the day.
Q: Why don't you cover exit polls?
A: Exit polls in any election are problematic; it's well known they are usually less accurate than the final pre-election polls (though Israel's polling moratorium law mitigates that somewhat).
A: Exit polls in any election are problematic; it's well known they are usually less accurate than the final pre-election polls (though Israel's polling moratorium law mitigates that somewhat).
But this cycle's exit polls will be even less useful than usual. Thanks to the pandemic, the CEC set up extra ballot boxes to prevent crowding and infection.
So I will be particularly insistent on ignoring them this time around.
So I will be particularly insistent on ignoring them this time around.
Turnout for #Israelex4 at 10:00 was 14.8%, slightly higher than #Israelex3's 14.5% turnout at the same time of day.
The pace has dropped off a bit. #Israelex4 turnout at 12:00 was 25.4%, down from 27.6% in #Israelex3.
Correction from previous tweet. #Israelex4 turnout at 14:00 was 34.6%, down from 38.1% in #Israelex3.
It’s happening AGAIN !
All the polling stations across #Israel are opened - GO VOTE!
All the polling stations across #Israel are opened - GO VOTE!
A polling station for #COVIDー19 positive and quarantined people in Be’er Sheva collapsed due to a sandstorm in the area
#IsraElex4 #Israel
#IsraElex4 #Israel
Fourth time’s a charm?
Murky morning in Jerusalem as #IsraElex4 begins. Hitting the road
Har Nof, Jerusalem. Rabbi Ovadya Yosef’s shul
Tiv Ta’am Ashdod. Less than an hour away from Rav Ovadya’s shul in Jerusalem but Israeli sociological terms light years away.
36.01/ Week 36 - March 20-26, 2021 - thread starts here.
Week 35, March 13-19, linked below:
Week 35, March 13-19, linked below:
36.02/ Last night, my wife showed me this NYTimes story about Jewish N*ziHunting ladies during WW2. It's a venn diagram of everything awesome!
nytimes.com/2021/03/18/opi…
nytimes.com/2021/03/18/opi…
36.03/ Mentioned to my brother @acypess this morning that Biden has a superpower to (a) make his positions sound moderate & reasonable no matter what, which then (b) drives his opponents crazy in frustration. E.g. Putin & #MoscowMitch recently, challenging him to duels & whatnot.
35.01/ Week thirty-five, March 13-19 2021, begins here. Last week's thread is below.
35.02/ An accurate thread of Ashkenazi culture on #Passover. [Hint: we rabbis haven't forbade potatoes yet. But don't provoke us]
35.03/ Thread about #PiDay, Albert Einstein and the movie IQ. Because, of course
12 days to #IsraElex4 and it looks like too many things have to go right for the opposition for Netanyahu to lose. Incredibly though his popularity is at a nadir, he’s still played a blinder in setting up his campaign while the opposition (with the exception of Lapid) is flailing
Netanyahu’s campaign has failed in some respects. Success in vaccination hasn’t translated to Likud votes, but his genius as a campaigner is never to focus just on his own party. He’s played his opponents brilliantly, ensuring they remain too divided to mount a joint front.
Netanyahu’s campaign began on March 4 last year, 2 days after the last election, when he realized he had failed once again to gain a majority for an immunity coalition. That’s when he began fighting #IsraElex4 which he always intended would come sooner rather than later
Link to the live feed of list submissions for #IsraElex4:
"I am honored to present the first list of the day: The Pirates!"
The first list submission for #Israelex4 has entered the room: Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party.
This is conducted under the strictest of coronavirus safety protocols.
* Shoulder-high plexiglass barriers that don't prevent aerosol spread
* Masks worn at all times except while talking, when infection is highest
* Two-meter separation, long proven to be irrelevant to the virus
* Shoulder-high plexiglass barriers that don't prevent aerosol spread
* Masks worn at all times except while talking, when infection is highest
* Two-meter separation, long proven to be irrelevant to the virus
I was mulling over this months ago, and I'm mad at myself that I forgot all about it when it became relevant.
The reason Yesh Atid grabbed first in line for list submission is because they want to claim the פה symbol before their former partner Blue & White can do so. #Israelex4
The reason Yesh Atid grabbed first in line for list submission is because they want to claim the פה symbol before their former partner Blue & White can do so. #Israelex4
My guess is Judge Vogelman will not allow Blue & White to simply use the same two letters in reverse (הפ), or even just one of them alone (ה or פ), due to the potential for confusion. But they can use one of these and one free letter, if they like.
This also explains why Yamina is second. Like Yesh Atid, they also have former list partners who will fight them for the טב symbol.
That situation is more complicated because טב has belonged to the Jewish Home for decades. If Yamina tries to use it there may be legal challenges.
That situation is more complicated because טב has belonged to the Jewish Home for decades. If Yamina tries to use it there may be legal challenges.
ANNOUNCEMENT
I'm throwing in my hat for Knesset.
I'll be running an extremist campaign filled with factual errors and lofty unachievable promises. We will have diplomatic relations with Antarctica and we will put a man on Io.
#IsraElex4
#Mossad4PM 🇮🇱
I'm throwing in my hat for Knesset.
I'll be running an extremist campaign filled with factual errors and lofty unachievable promises. We will have diplomatic relations with Antarctica and we will put a man on Io.
#IsraElex4
#Mossad4PM 🇮🇱
Spoiler about Io: it'll be @khamenei_ir and he won't be coming back.
All Jewish, Christian and Muslim holidays will become statutory holidays with pay. The work week will be Monday to Thursday. Free health care but only for gun owners. Free guns but only to health workers and every household gets their own Iron Dome.
#IsraElex4
#Mossad4PM 🇮🇱
#IsraElex4
#Mossad4PM 🇮🇱
