Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #JCPoA

Most recents (24)


If you haven’t read “The Dead Hand” by David E. Hoffman, you should.

The book provides a valuable, in-depth look into Cold War arms race.

This thread focuses on #Iran’s attempts to acquire dangerous material for nuclear and biological weapons.

For those who have tracked #Iran’s regime for years, it is a no-brainer that Tehran has, and currently is, seeking to acquire nuclear weapons.

Listen to this former deputy parliament speaker of Iran.

Hoffman’s book provides startling details into #Iran’s attempts to obtain enriched uranium & other raw materials for nuclear & biological weapons, from Soviet satellite states following the fall of the USSR.

“Moscow Science Counselors Meeting,” State Dept cable, Jan. 31, 1992
Read 25 tweets
1) #Iran’s regime is close to developing a nuclear bomb, NO DEAL WITH THE MULLAHS:
The question is why so many contradictions despite so many warnings...
Blinken says US still thinks Iran deal best path
2) The White House is worried #Iran could develop a nuclear weapon in weeks, press secretary Jen Psaki said on Tuesday: #JCPOA……
3) Ned Price: We remain hopeful that an agreement can be reached, but it can be reached only if Iran is prepared to conclude a deal without, for example, raising issues that are extraneous to the #JCPOA.
We’ve seen what a world with a fully functioning #JCPOA looks like!!!!
Read 10 tweets
Read 57 tweets
Questions about the #Negev_Summit:
1. As a supporter of #AbrahamAccords, I would have loved nothing better for the Negev Summit to have been a meaningful opportunity for a constructive & frank exchange of ideas building on the foundation between participants.
2. Alas, once again, it appears to be nothing more than another hastily organized photo op. I don't see clear follow-ups that would indicate a substantive basis of support to the points raised to the summit.
3. #Morocco's FM Bourita, for instance, once again went around claiming credit for #Israel's allegedly growing support on the Kingdom's sovereignty over Sahara. But where's #Israel's consulate in #Dakhla? And why is Govrin still a liaison and not a full Ambassador to #Morocco?
Read 22 tweets
1/ As #Iran continues to insist that the IRGC be removed from @StateDept FTO, the prospect of a #JCPOA revival is shimmering again.
So... Trita Parsi, the current #IranLobby Chief, has started to cry wolf about 𝘄𝗮𝗿 again to push @POTUS for more concessions.
2/ If you'd like to see how many times he's done the drill, check out this thread ⬇️
3/ Trita Parsi has always liked to use mainstream #media to warn about an #American war with #Iran that never came.
Read 11 tweets
The lack of a viable #Israel|i strategy to the #Iran nuclear issue after nearly two decades of dealing with it is shocking.

#Bennet tells #Blinken Iran can be deterred from 90% enrichment via #Russia level sanctions.

There are some problem with this. 1/…
While #Iran and #Russia sanctions regimes are complex and comparison is hard #Iran sanctions are arguably more comprehensive. Critically its energy exports are sanctioned whereas #Russia's are relatively unfettered. Iran is a template for Russia sanctions not other way around. 2/
Now sanctions can be ratcheted up against #Iran in case of escalations by it on the nuclear issue b/c my sense is #Biden enforcement has slackened and EU and China can join. But there are reasons to doubt this will be a sufficient deterrent against Iranian nuclear escalation. 3/
Read 9 tweets
“It is abhorrent Iranian officials continue to use dual & foreign nationals.. as bargaining chips,” “It is also particularly disappointing British authorities did not do enough to ensure Iran would uphold the conditions they agreed to for Tahbaz’s furlough.” #FreeMorad @trussliz
On February 10, 2018, family of Kavous Seyed Emami, Iranian-Canadian professor, arrested with Tahbaz & other conservationists, reported Seyed died in custody. Iranian authorities claimed he died by suicide, but they have not conducted an impartial investigation into his death.
On several occasions senior Iranian government officials have indicated that they did not find any evidence to suggest that the detained activists are spies.
Read 6 tweets
New SAMP-T 🚀 talks (@NATO summit) confirms our preliminary @ENC_Europe research findings on 🇫🇷🇹🇷🇮🇹 security & 🇪🇺 cooperation.

Title: Is 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relationship worth saving? Why bilateral relations, defence and energy matter.

Thread 🧵 resume of research below ⬇️👇 [17 points]
First some context, what lay at the root of difficult 🇪🇺🇹🇷🇺🇸 relations (including defence):

•PKK/YPG/PYD threat
•Gulen in 🇺🇸 Pennsylvania
•🇹🇷 trade irritants/non-competitive practices
•Discovery of #Eastmed gas, UNCLOS & #JCPOA 🇮🇷 problems . . .
•🇹🇷 EU membership “diluting 🇪🇺” (🇫🇷)
•🇹🇷 MB sponsoring (🇫🇷)
•🇹🇷 #EastMed provocations & 🇺🇳Libya issue 🇫🇷⛴
•🇹🇷 unilateralism in Syria (🇫🇷)
•International systemic changes (🇺🇸🇨🇳)
•Iraq war and “strategic autonomy”
•S-400s, ☢️Akkayu and Blue&TurkStream ⛽️
•Cyprus 🇨🇾 . . .
Read 20 tweets
Iran set up a clandestine banking and finance system to circumvent US-led sanctions, according to sources and documents -- WSJ
#Iran #OOTT
System enabled Tehran to withstand sanctions, bank and corporate documents show -- WSJ
#Iran #OOTT #US
System revived trade, giving Iran leverage in nuclear talks, sources say -- WSJ
Read 5 tweets
🔴 LIVE: Our panel on the 🇮🇷 #Iran talks in the aftermath of its pause over demands from 🇷🇺 #Russia is now underway. Nasser Hadian @UnivOfTehran is optimistic about a return to #JCPOA because "the plan Bs are so horrible that nobody wants to go down that path." 1/x 🧵
On remaining hurdles, @SanamVakil @ch_menap says "there are differences still on the lifting of #sanctions, particularly those over the FTO designation of the IRGC" and the fact that "everyone would like guarantees," not just 🇷🇺 #Russia. 2/x
On the talks' fate, @MarkTFitz @IISS_org gauged that all parties "are serious about reaching a deal," noting that "#Russia very quickly backtracked due to Iranian diplomacy and American diplomacy" to guarantee trade cooperation b/w Moscow and Tehran amidst events in #Ukraine. 3/x
Read 16 tweets
The war in Ukraine is the gravest immediate peril to international peace & security for decades.

Its global impact is already widely felt, from Venezuela to Iran. This is only the beginning.

Ahead of an upcoming @CrisisGroup statement, a few thoughts on why we should all care:
This conflict is not more important because it is in Europe.

It is important because it raises the risk of direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers and ruptures crucial cooperation between the West and Russia.
A key example is US-Iran nuclear talks, aimed at reviving the #JCPOA.

Gaps had been narrowing in Vienna. But now, Russia demands guarantees that its trade with Iran be exempted from the harsh sanctions it faces over Ukraine.
Read 21 tweets
NEW -- #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has killed #Syria diplomacy & will trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

To adapt to this challenge, I propose a bold new approach -- "Freeze and Build" -- focusing more strategically on aid/stabilization:… Image
The war in #Ukraine has severed all meaningful U.S.-#Russia diplomatic contact, & the same for #Europe.

#Moscow is more likely than ever to veto cross-border aid at the UNSC in July & #Syria's wheat supplies are lower than ever -- a famine in 2022 is now very much on the cards. ImageImage
Amid a severing of diplomatic contact w. #Russia (except for #JCPOA talks), x2 officials tell me #Moscow has stopped answering the #Syria deconfliction line -- and x1 U.S. DOD official confirmed #Russia has resumed "unsafe and unprofessional" actions around U.S. forces in the NE. Image
Read 9 tweets
War in #Ukraine and a halt in negotiations on the #JCPOA due to #Russia’s demands are game changers that also risk endangering #Iran-#SaudiArabia talks. A THREAD 1/11🧵 :…
2/11 After a new round of #KSA-#Iran talks was announced yesterday, rumors suggested #Iran wished to suspend talks. Meanwhile Iran’s IRGC launched an attack on US installations in Erbil. This is worrying:…
3/11 Russia’s demands in #JCPOA talks and subsequent halt in negotiations, may disincentivize #Tehran to opt for dialogue and refraining from targeting #US assets & Iran’s regional rivals, either directly or through its allied paramilitaries in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
Read 12 tweets
Su @el_pais ho commentato come la guerra in #Ucraina e la conseguente rottura tra #USA/ #UE e #Russia sta già generando riallineamenti. Thread 👇
1) In #Venezuela il presidente-dittatore #Maduro ha accolto la disponibilità USA ad allentare le sanzioni per acquistare il petrolio che sostituirà le forniture dalla Russia con grande favore...
...Maduro si vede non solo meno minacciato dagli USA ma anche meno dipendente da Mosca, che negli anni di massima pressione economica americana (in particolare 2018-19) ha tenuto in piedi il suo regime
Read 8 tweets
#Russia chief negotiator: Talks & the text of an agreement not yet finalized. Maybe it’ll be finalized tomorrow.There’s no confirmation from all participants that the text is acceptable. All our economic relations w/ Iran should be exempt from all current & future EU/US sanctions
#Russia chief negotiator says US & Europeans need to say clearly that the sanctions won’t affect #Iran-Russia nuclear cooperation under & beyond #JCPOA, as well as their trade relations.
On reaction of other parties, he said, “not positive, not constructive. It’s also normal”.
#Russia chief negotiator says he’s “outraged confidential info was leaked to mass media [on him presenting non-paper to Mora]…This is abnormal”. He said Moscow will need “few days” to make final decision once it gets final text, adding “the text is not available at this stage”.
Read 3 tweets
HAPPENING NOW: House Intelligence Committee holds open hearing on Worldwide Threats

Testimony coming from:

@ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines

@CIA Dir Bill Burns

@FBI Dir Christopher Wray

@NSAGov Dir Gen Paul Nakasone

@DefenseIntel Dir LtGen Scott Berrier
NEW: "One of the key challenges of this era is assessing how many of the various threats & trends are likely to intersect" per @ODNIgov Dir Avril Haines
NEW: "#China remains an unparalleled priority for the intelligence community" per @ODNIgov's Haines

Next comes #Russia #Iran & #DPRK

"All 4 gvts have demonstrated the capability & intent to promote their interest in the ways that cut against US interests"
Read 76 tweets
Breaking: House Intel Committee posts @ODNIgov's 2022 Annual Threat Assessment, aka the Worldwide Threat Assessment

"#Beijing, #Moscow, #Tehran, & #Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability & intent to advance their interests at the expense of the #UnitedStates & its allies"
"#China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the #UnitedStates in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily & technologically—& is pushing to change global norms & potentially threatening its neighbors" per @ODNIgov report
"#Russia is pushing back against #Washington where it can—locally & globally—employing techniques up to & including the use of force" per @ODNIgov report, compiled w/info available up to January
Read 67 tweets
1/ AEOI President Eslami and @iaeaorg DG @rafaelmgrossi have agreed joint statement which outlines process for possible resolution safeguards issues.
2/ @rafaelmgrossi "will aim to report his conclusion [on safeguards] by the June 2022 Board of Governors." Says process is "losely related" to possible agreement on #JCPOA reinstatement. Seems like this agreement will be major part of final puzzle to be solved.
3/ At press conference, @rafaelmgrossi says IAEA will no longer pursue investigation of uranium metal disc, 1 of 4 open issues. Says nothing more can be done to resolve this issue, hints at material being in different form (melted down, in inventory).
Read 7 tweets
In the last 48hrs, #Syria's banned almost all food exports, amid acute concern about the implications of war in #Ukraine.

#Syria is *deeply* reliant on staple food (esp. wheat) shipments from #Russia via the Black Sea. Those shipments (& #Russia financial aid) have 100% stopped.
Already, #Syria's fiscal crisis, energy shortages, unprecedented drought & the resulting crippled agricultural output had seen some aid figures warn of a famine in 2022.

#Putin's war on #Ukraine has just placed those fears on steroids -- I'm told #Damascus is extremely worried.
To make matters even worse, the war in #Ukraine has distracted international attention from #Syria & its acute humanitarian crises -- donor payments will almost certainly decline & future pledges will be [further] cut, just as the humanitarian suffering looks destined to worsen.
Read 5 tweets
Asked about the possibility to drop the outstanding IAEA safeguards probe in #Iran as part of a return to the 2015 #JCPOA, @iaeaorg DG @rafaelmgrossi gave a clear answer at today's presser in Vienna: 1/
"The IAEA will never abandon a process that it launched because of the necessity of clarification of certain situations in Iran because of a political reason. This is not how the IAEA works. I as DG would never do that." 2/
"What we need to do with Iran is to sit around the table and try to clarify these issues. The only way that these issues will go away is if they are clarified to the full satisfaction of the IAEA." 3/
Read 7 tweets
While President Biden attempted to make the case tonight that ‘America is back’ and our diplomacy is stronger than ever, we’ve witnessed a vastly different reality over the last year.…
The admin’s failure to draw hard lines throughout 2021 fed #Putin’s perception of Western weakness. The sanctions & weapons transfers thus far are a good 1st step, but we must do more for #Ukraine. My #NYETAct spells out exactly what should happen, including secondary sanctions.
Americans continue to share outrage over how the U.S. withdrew from #Afghanistan. Last month, I released a report describing how the admin failed to properly plan a coordinated evacuation & made recs to ensure we do not repeat mistakes.…
Read 9 tweets
Qatar's Kaabi says gas producing countries disagree with non-UN economic sanctions against GECF member states – Doha declaration
#Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaCrisis #Qatar
UAE energy minister, when asked about oil markets, says it’s not an issue of supply and demand, it is geopolitics.
#Russia #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaCrisis #OOTT
UAE energy minister says cannot comment on Iran nuclear deal as has not happened yet.
Read 12 tweets
A breakout time of "weeks" would make "re-entering #JCPOA" a significant risk -- if there's going to be a deal, it'll need to be different, and significantly better/stronger, as #Iran is now just a 'hop, skip
& a jump' from the point of no return.
I'd give this vision a 0% chance of success.

There's just no way #Iran would re-enter the #JCPOA, take sanctions relief etc., and then agree to join a longer & more strict deal. It's a fantasy.

- "Now is the time for #Biden’s negotiating team to make the smart but necessary concessions to restart some version of #Obama’s nuclear deal."

No doubt #Trump put us in a horrible position, but framing things like this is problematic.… Image
Read 4 tweets
@DLFNachrichten Hey @DLFNachrichten Team, Sie schreiben: „Die USA waren im Jahr 2018 unter dem damaligen Präsidenten Trump einseitig aus dem Vertrag ausgestiegen. Seitdem verstößt der Iran immer wieder gegen die Vereinbarungen.“
Ich muss hier etwas ausholen, da Ihre Behauptung nicht stimmt 1/
@DLFNachrichten Das #JCPOA wurde im Jahr 2015 zwischen Iran und sechs Weltstaaten unterzeichnet, nämlich den USA, Deutschland, Frankreich, Großbritannien, Russland und China. Es wurde auch in Form einer Resolution des UN-Sicherheitsrats ratifiziert. Der illegale Bruch Washingtons 2/
@DLFNachrichten und die anschließende Wiedereinführung von Sanktionen gegen Teheran bedrohten jedoch die Zukunft des multilateralen Abkommens.
Teheran hat sich danach ein ganzes Jahr lang an seine JCPOA-Verpflichtungen gehalten und darauf gewartet, dass die Mitunterzeichner 3/
Read 6 tweets

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