Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #JPow

Most recents (5)

1/23 It's easy to find bullish and bearish elements in the charts to fit you bias, but being a maxi can be risky. Remember:
Markets ebb and flow
Data constantly changes
Your bias only needs to match the TF you are trading

A 🧵 on the #data influencing the #BTC trend and PA.
#NFA
2/23 Before we dive into the macro for #Bitcoin, let's look at what's happening this week. It's rare to have a Daily MA #GoldenCross and a Weekly MA #DeathCross happening on the same asset.
3/23 The #GoldenCross printed and the #DeathCross between the 200 & 50 WMA's is coming on the next candle. Knowing why we have conflicting signals isn't as critical as knowing how price will react, but if I had to guess, I'd say, short term manipulation.
Read 23 tweets
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Bears & bulls in $WTI $BRENT here's a list of catalysts that flip #oil markets green & RED in the next 90 days.
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ON the - SIDE
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#FOMC rebooted recession narrative & risk, covid cases China, no #opec cuts, no #opec meeting until summer, recession narrative EU, bad economic data out of China, questions about long delays in China reopening, La Nina warmer winter, 2023 earnings & guidance as not great.
Read 26 tweets
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1 = #CPI if HOT obviously spooks markets .
2 = .50 is less an issue .
3 = .75 is messy !
4 = Real issue this week is 3 other issues.

👇
SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
👇
FED FUNDS / TERMINAL RATE
👇
#JPOW TONE & ANSWERS TO ?s

Nice article here .
👇 Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend: Image
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.

2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: Image
Read 19 tweets
🏦Fed Jargon 101: A Primer on Hawks, Dots & Monetary Policy🏦

No matter what type of trader u are —discretionary, macro, crypto, chad, virgin— everyone obsesses abt the Fed.
But why? Here's a 🧵 on how Fed moves markets, controls ur PnL & the odd lingo we use to describe it.
👇
1/ Beta

#1 reason any trader cares about the Fed is to predict beta.
What's that?

Say u made 120% returns in 2020. Are u a genius or did u just own a buncha tech stocks as #jpow cranked the moneyprinter? Beta is the overall equity market risk (aka rising tide floats all boats).
To be "long beta" means ur net long stocks. "Short beta" means ur net short.

Beta on a single asset refers to correlation to an equity benchmark (eg SPY).
β>1: more volatile than SPY
0<β<1: less volatile
-1<β<0: less volatile & anticorrelated
β<-1: more volatile & anticorrelated
Read 24 tweets

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