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[#ExtremeWeather #ClimateChangeNow coverage initiation THREAD].
The next potentially devastating northern hemisphere hurrricane candidate #92B has now been designated.
The next potentially devastating northern hemisphere hurrricane candidate #92B has now been designated.
The potential new storm - which is modeled to head north into the Bay of Bengal in coming days and make - has been in global simulation models for several days. This is the latest GFS3 IWVT model run.
#Invest92b #92b GFS3 Model 16 day forecast of precipititable water (PWAT)
With a series of West Pacific tropical storms & typhoons - including #NenengPH [which you can see arriving in Vietnam shortly on upper right] - the Nth. Indian ocean is flooded with water vapour.
With a series of West Pacific tropical storms & typhoons - including #NenengPH [which you can see arriving in Vietnam shortly on upper right] - the Nth. Indian ocean is flooded with water vapour.
This #ExtremeWeather thread on #Invest96s in the Indian Ocean is a weird one.
It began with apparent cancellation of the designation of two colliding tropical disturbances by the #JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) last night, followed by its re-designation this afternoon.
It began with apparent cancellation of the designation of two colliding tropical disturbances by the #JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) last night, followed by its re-designation this afternoon.
The re-designation wasn't by JTWC - which is having website outage issues - but rather by the RSMC, the local meteorological authorities in the Reunion & @meteofrance
"***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION"
"***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION"
If #Invest96s becomes a cyclone and intensifies, models indicate it will become the fourth cyclone to strike Madagascar in two months - possibly as the 2nd major cyclone.
It would follow #StormAna #Batsirai & #Dumako which made landfall in the north of Madagascar today.
It would follow #StormAna #Batsirai & #Dumako which made landfall in the north of Madagascar today.
#ExtremeWeather Update Thread:
"Intense Cyclone" #Batsirai is stronger than expected, forecast to strengthen, with a path slightly to the north of previously. It is now expected to land at Cat 3-4 Hurricane intensity - near the centers of population on the island of Madagascar.
"Intense Cyclone" #Batsirai is stronger than expected, forecast to strengthen, with a path slightly to the north of previously. It is now expected to land at Cat 3-4 Hurricane intensity - near the centers of population on the island of Madagascar.
The storm is experiencing a lot of shear, and yet remaining remarkably intact. You can see the ragged eye here north and west of the forecast path with a large wobble.
The access issues I had been experiencing with the #JTWC appear to be fixed. And here is their latest forecast and discussion & reasoning. metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
#ExtremeWeather Alert Thread
Cyclone Batsirai is heading towards Madagascar, hot on the heels of Storm Ana which has brought fatal flooding and massive damage to both Madagascar and SE Africa, Mozambique - Malawi & Zimbabwe.
6 hour animation of the storm this morning.
Cyclone Batsirai is heading towards Madagascar, hot on the heels of Storm Ana which has brought fatal flooding and massive damage to both Madagascar and SE Africa, Mozambique - Malawi & Zimbabwe.
6 hour animation of the storm this morning.
Cyclone #Batsirai is a much more intense storm than Storm Ana, and at present nearly all simulation runs from both the European and US models show a landfall on the East Coast of Madagascar in 4-5 days.
The @USNavy's #JTWC website (metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html) is currently inaccessible from what I can see (possibly due to certificate errors) but this graphic from France Meteo appears to be the current official forecast for #Batsirai.
