Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Jolani

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ICYMI -- for the 1st time since 2011, #Idlib's Christian community gathered on Sunday at the Church of St. Anna in al-Yacoubiya, near Jisr al-Shughour, #Idlib to celebrate the Orthodox St. Anna's Day.

#HTS leader Jolani met with the Church's Bishop Luay al-Bisharat in July. ImageImageImage
Since #Jolani's visit to al-Yacoubiya in July, rumors have swirled around #HTS's agenda for #Idlib's Christian minority.

There are reports that #HTS has communicated with Syrian Christians in #Germany, inviting residents/property owners to return & re-assume property ownership.
Until now, no discernible 'return' has been noted in al-Yacoubiya & nearby al-Jadida & al-Quniya -- but some say Sunday's celebration at St. Anna's was a "confidence building measure" (i.e. a test).

Bishop Bisharat has suggested more announcements may be forthcoming.
Read 4 tweets
.@frontlinepbs's documentary on #HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani begins at 10pm EST tonight -- it's already caused shockwaves in the jihadist world.

I've been studying #HTS (& its predecessors) & Jolani's leadership for 10yrs -- the story has profound analytical implications. Image
@frontlinepbs Few could have imagined in 2012-13 that Jolani's Jabhat al-Nusra would years later have a new name & be speaking in quasi nationalist tones; running a semi-technocratic "govt"; proactively engaging w. international NGOs & media; & seeking to establish dialogue w. Western govts.
@frontlinepbs The path between '12 Nusra & '21 #HTS is complex & strewn with inter-factional conflict; vicious internal strife; geopolitical manipulation; and above all, the impact of #Syria's nationwide uprising.

In breaking from #AlQaeda, #Jolani sparked a massive intra-jihadist debate.
Read 32 tweets
Very, very interesting.

#HTS & its leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani have just finished hosting @frontlinepbs's @Martin28Smith in #Idlib for 3 days.

How times change -- quite a difference from 2014/15.
@frontlinepbs @Martin28Smith #pt: It's no secret that #HTS has been pushing hard behind-the-scenes for opportunities to improve its image abroad -- first in outreach to researchers/institutes & more recently giving top access to highly-regarded media outlets.

And fwiw, PBS is one of several.
@frontlinepbs @Martin28Smith #pt: That #HTS is pushing this shouldn't come as a surprise -- the ingredients were put in place as far back as 2015, when a prolonged internal debate regarding the right path for Jabhat al-Nusra began. Clerical "lobby groups" got involved & then #JFS was created; then #HTS.
Read 15 tweets
The intra-jihadi dynamic in #Idlib is rapidly intensifying, as #HTS is seeking to re-assert itself vis-a-vis (1) the opposition, (2) local civil society, (3) #Turkey & (4) increasingly exasperated #AlQaeda-leaning factions.

In doing so, it's revealing its multiple identities.
In recent weeks, we've seen escalatory events:

1. Khaled al-Aruri's death in a US drone strike

2. Formation of the #AlQaeda-leaning 'Stand Firm' ops room

3. #HTS arrest of:
- Sirajideen Makhtarov (Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki)
- Jamal Hassan Zayniya (Abu Malik al-Talli)
- Tauqir Sharif
Weeks ago, #HTS was attempting to [re-]build bridges with #Idlib civil society & now it's cracking down on divisive #AlQaeda loyalists & defecting critics.

Hard not to see the drivers involved here:

- Protect internal unity & regional primacy
- Undermine #AQ
- Message #Turkey
Read 33 tweets
Russia’s relentless and vicious campaign in NW Syria, where millions of civilians and IDPs live and could be forced to flee en mass, continues. The leader of the force that dominates that area has a new speech. A new & dangerous chapter is looming.

Details in following tweets:
Just in:

Abu Muhammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (#HTS, former Jabhat al-#Nusra), appeared in a video about latest developments in #Idlib.

He focuses on Russia, as the new enemy determined to restore "the glory of the Soviet Union".
Al-Jolani says the Syrian revolution has achieved many goals against the Syrian regime, including the fracturing of its army (rendered militias), decimated economy, and domestic & international isolation. (Net gains for the rebels.)
Read 22 tweets
Amid the ongoing conflict in NW #Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (#HTS) continues to evolve in intriguing ways - into a more politically mature & intelligent jihadist movement.

It's current leadership clearly seeks to position itself somewhere between #MuslimBrotherhood & #AlQaeda.
There's now little question that #HTS no longer represents #AlQaeda.

It's clearly still an extremist movement, but signs continue to add up indicating that it's developing into something qualitatively different than the Jabhat al-Nusra of 2014-15 - a "Shami #Taliban," perhaps.
Most recently in the public space, #HTS issued a statement acknowledging its willingness to abide by an externally-negotiated (by #Turkey, #Iran & #Russia) ceasefire.

That was a first.

Its never happened before in #Syria & it's not a move any #AlQaeda affiliate would ever take.
Read 15 tweets
15. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey,Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Jordan, Nato in Syria

#RegimeChange #FakeNews #FalseFlag #terrorism #SyriaInvasion #WarCrimes #CrimesAgainstChildren #CrimesAgainstHumanity
1. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Jordan, Nato in Syria 😉👇🏼
2. The Legacy of US, UK, France, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Canada, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Jordan, Nato in Syria 😉👇🏼
Read 140 tweets
Preparations appear to be underway for a pro-#Assad offensive on #Idlib.

12hrs of on/off air & artillery strikes vs. southeastern & western #Idlib & northern #Hama - see marks on map (original by @ETANA_Syria + my additions).

+ multiple large pro-regime convoys moving north.
@ETANA_Syria #pt: If/when any major military campaign gets underway, expect the #Assad regime (+ #Russia & #Iran-backed militias) to focus on these 2 fronts:

1) West #Idlib (Jisr al-Shughour)
2) N. #Hama/#SE #Idlib (Latamineh, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafrazita)

-> a gradual push ‘inland’ & north.
@ETANA_Syria Very good by @theIRC’s @DMiliband:

- The West must “re-assert” itself & protect civilians in NW #Syria & as a backstop, safe-routes should be opened for civilians to flee into #Turkey.

- UNSC must demand full access to S #Syria; for aid, monitoring etc.

washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-w…
Read 83 tweets
Amid #Assad regime offensive in south #Syria, worth bearing in mind its continued bombing of areas in #Idlib - also under a so-called “de-escalation zone.”

Having watched the southern zone dissolved w/o response from #Jordan or #Israel, #Turkey’s now warning #Idlib = “red line."
#Turkey has deployed its own armed forces to x12 “observation posts” fencing in opposition areas & enforcing de-escalation.

#Russia seems invested in stability in #Idlib - but for how long?

After #Deraa, will #Assad & #Iran destroy the last remaining “de-escalation zone”?
For now, expect periodic regime bombing raids & notably, also ‘spoiling’ attacks by fighters unrestrained by #Turkey’s iron grip.

#HTS will remain internally divided on de-escalation -- the more regime bombings, the heavier the pressure for #HTS to respond = #Assad opportunity.
Read 26 tweets
NEW - #Ahrar al-Sham & Nour al-Din al-Zinki have merged, creating Jabhat Tahrir Souriya, branded with “green” revolutionary flag.

- Ahrar leader Hassan Soufan = leader
- #Zinki leader Tawfiq Shahbuddin = deputy

“JTS” calls on other groups to join for greater unity.
#pt: What does “JTS’s” formation mean?

- Unlikely to be a full merger, but closer Ahrar-Zinki coordinating ties have been clear for months.

- Northern #Syria’s two biggest non-#HTS factions are compiling (with Syrian Islamic Council backing) pressure on #Jolani & HTS.
I’m told that x4 sub-factions of #HTS have agreed to join the newly formed Jabhat Tahrir Souriya (#JTS) and at least x5 others are negotiating possible terms.

#Syria #Idlib
Read 67 tweets
Amusing & sad seeing some analysts continue to naively read shady & complex developments through a strictly black/white lens - as if things in the world of jihadism occur along slick, clean lines.

It only shows your analytical immaturity.

Look deeper. #Syria
Jabhat al-Nusra (pre-#JFS) was a movement of several ‘wings.’

When Nusra leader #Jolani was presented w. an ultimatum in mid-July 2016 (break from AQ or face 30%+ defection), there then began a furious debate throughout #Nusra’s command structure about the group’s future.

1/10
Within #Nusra’s Shura Council, the subject of moving away from AQ was almost 50:50 - with several of the group’s most senior leaders insisting *no.*

As the debate bled down through Nusra’s regional commands, differing proposals gained weight - like 'Chinese Whispers.'

2/10
Read 12 tweets

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