Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Jolts
Most recents (24)
We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Job openings edged up in April 2023, but remain close to their level two years ago (in April 2021) and significantly lower than in the height of labor market churn in the pandemic recovery. Layoffs and discharges decreased in April while hires held steady and quits softened. 
Job openings have generally been decreasing over the last year, slowly but steadily moving closer to their pre-pandemic levels, though clearly not there yet. Much of the elevated rates we've seen may have been because of the increased labor market churn and not net new demand.
After increasing in March, layoffs dropped in April closer to its February level. Hires held steady in April, while quits continued to edge down.
Layoffs still remain significantly lower than their prepandemic levels while hires and quits are still elevated.
Layoffs still remain significantly lower than their prepandemic levels while hires and quits are still elevated.
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
Was tied up this morning, but #JOLTS looks interesting enough that it's worth a belated/abridged charts thread. I'm sure lots of others have already hit many of these points (looking at you, @nick_bunker, @DanielBZhao) but I can't resist.
Labor demand is clearly cooling. Job openings fell for the third straight month. Still high by historical standards, but now clearly falling (and quite rapidly).
The ratio of openings to unemployed workers hasn't been falling as steadily. But it's down to its lowest level since November 2021.
Job openings fell to 9,590,000 in March, down from 9,974,000 in Feb and the lowest since Apr 2021.
Falling job openings adds another data point in favor of a cooling job market.
#JOLTS 1/
Falling job openings adds another data point in favor of a cooling job market.
#JOLTS 1/
Job openings fell most sharply in some of the service sectors that have driven much of the recent jobs recovery:
Transportation, warehousing & utilities: -144,000
Professional & business services: -135,000
Retail trade: -84,000
Health care & social assistance: -71,000
#JOLTS 2/
Transportation, warehousing & utilities: -144,000
Professional & business services: -135,000
Retail trade: -84,000
Health care & social assistance: -71,000
#JOLTS 2/
The most concerning figure from the #JOLTS report is the jump in layoffs & discharges, rising to 1,805,000 in March, near the pre-pandemic level after spending much of the last 2 years well below, amidst a historically hot job market.
3/
3/
March 2023 #JOLTS Report:
The labor market continues to cool off
Job openings down to 9.6 million
Quits rate ticked down to 2.5%
Layoff rate up to 1.2%
The labor market continues to cool off
Job openings down to 9.6 million
Quits rate ticked down to 2.5%
Layoff rate up to 1.2%
December 2020 was the last time the layoff rate was as high as it was in March.
The quits rate ticked down in March to 2.5%, but it's still above its average in 2019 of 2.3%
There were 10.8 million job openings at the end of January, down slightly from an upwardly-revised 11.2 million in December.
Layoffs up slightly. Quits down slightly. All consistent with a gradually cooling (but still hot) labor market. #JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
Layoffs up slightly. Quits down slightly. All consistent with a gradually cooling (but still hot) labor market. #JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
The exception, of course, is hiring -- way up in January, to 6.1 million from 4.6 million in December. (Remember, these are gross figures, not net like in the monthly jobs report.) Consistent with the big gain we we saw in the jobs report last month.
Job openings *are* trending down. It's just a very slow process, and not a smooth one. Openings are still far above any prepandemic level.
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰
Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023
1/9
The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics
We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.
Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
Macro Review 🧵
02/05/2023
1/9
The #macro market has been hyper focused on growth and inflation dynamics
We got a slew of data showing inflation under control.
Yet one data point on Friday raised havoc with my portfolio.
Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2a/9
The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting
#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻
The Employment Cost Index #ECI came out on Tuesday, just prior to the #FOMC meeting
#ECI +1% Q/Q represented a deceleration in employment costs
#Inflation 🔻
2b/9
Home prices were also out on Tuesday.
At +8.2% y/y, housing costs continue to decline on an ROC basis
#Inflation 🔻
Home prices were also out on Tuesday.
At +8.2% y/y, housing costs continue to decline on an ROC basis
#Inflation 🔻
As @PrestonMui @employamerica reminded us, slowdown in hiring is a leading indicator of recession, layoffs lag.
Official hiring rate estimate @BLS_gov #JOLTS has declined since Fed started ⬆️rates in Mar 2022. We'll get Dec estimate on Wed.
Official hiring rate estimate @BLS_gov #JOLTS has declined since Fed started ⬆️rates in Mar 2022. We'll get Dec estimate on Wed.
Hiring is the slowest key labor market indicator to show up in official statistics.
An advance signal is available from small-biz payroll data @GustoHQ @parduel, Doesn't parallel JOLTS but broadly agrees.
Dec data: continued decline, consistent with employer demand weakening
An advance signal is available from small-biz payroll data @GustoHQ @parduel, Doesn't parallel JOLTS but broadly agrees.
Dec data: continued decline, consistent with employer demand weakening
A timely but indirect, noisy proxy for a hiring slowdown is when new UI claims are not rising but continuing claims are.
That's exactly what weekly UI data has been showing.
(Hiring & job finding rate share #hires as numerators but differ in denominator)
That's exactly what weekly UI data has been showing.
(Hiring & job finding rate share #hires as numerators but differ in denominator)
1/ "Yes, if you die while working for a company, your death will be counted in JOLTS."
This and a few more gems in our #JOLTS primer thread incoming ⤵
This and a few more gems in our #JOLTS primer thread incoming ⤵
2/ What is JOLTS?
It's a data series about labor movements reported by businesses.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the data once a month on a lagged month basis (November data is published in January).
It's a data series about labor movements reported by businesses.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the data once a month on a lagged month basis (November data is published in January).
3/ Why do markets care about JOLTS?
1. It *can* signal the demand for labor.
2. Chair Jay Powell keeps citing "Job Openings" as part of the Fed's internals on monitoring the economy.
3. Specifically, the "job openings rate" is quoted from this data series.
1. It *can* signal the demand for labor.
2. Chair Jay Powell keeps citing "Job Openings" as part of the Fed's internals on monitoring the economy.
3. Specifically, the "job openings rate" is quoted from this data series.
Job openings and quits both continued to edge down in October. Layoffs remain extremely low. #JOLTS
DATA: bls.gov/news.release/j…
DATA: bls.gov/news.release/j…
There were 10.3 million job openings at the end of October, down from 10.7 million in September and a peak of close to 12 million early this year. Still very high by historical standards, but now clearly coming down.
There were 1.7 open jobs for every unemployed worker in October. The ratio had ticked up in September, but is now back to where it was at the end of the summer.
Fed officials have repeatedly cited the nearly 2:1 ratio as evidence of the very tight labor market.
Fed officials have repeatedly cited the nearly 2:1 ratio as evidence of the very tight labor market.
October 2022 #JOLTS Report: Strong and steady
Job openings down to 10.3 million
Private sector quits rate flat at 2.9%
Total layoffs steady at 0.9%
Job openings down to 10.3 million
Private sector quits rate flat at 2.9%
Total layoffs steady at 0.9%
The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers ticked down to 1.7 from 1.9 in September, continuing its moderation in 2022.
But it's still very elevated from pre-pandemic level.
But it's still very elevated from pre-pandemic level.
The quits rate continued to moderate, but the pace of descent is not very rapid.
Continued strong levels of job switching would keep nominal wage growth robust.
Continued strong levels of job switching would keep nominal wage growth robust.
Third-quarter G.D.P. growth was revised up modestly, to +2.9% (annualized) from +2.6% in the initial estimate. The details look a bit stronger too: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (a measure of underling demand) now +0.5% annualized, vs. +0.1% in the initial estimate.
On the other hand, Gross Domestic Income (an alternate measure of economic output) rose just 0.3% annualized in Q3. (This is the first estimate for Q3 G.D.I.)
The weakness in GDI in Q3 is notable because for much of this year, economists were pointing to GDI as evidence that the economy was stronger than GDP suggested. But revisions changed that story quite a bit, and now GDI has been weaker than GDP for two straight quarters.
Job openings rose in September, to 10.7 million. Still only partly offsets the big drop in August.
Quits rate held steady at 2.7%.
Layoffs remain very low (and dipped back down slightly).
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
Quits rate held steady at 2.7%.
Layoffs remain very low (and dipped back down slightly).
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
Job openings edged back up in September, which isn't a big surprise given the huge drop in August. (Aug. also revised up, but only slightly.)
Basic story seems unchanged: Openings are falling, but from a *very* high level.
Basic story seems unchanged: Openings are falling, but from a *very* high level.
The uptick in job openings pushed back up the ratio of openings per unemployed worker, though it remains a bit below the 2:1 ratio we saw at the peak. Still lots of jobs out there!
Sharp drop in job openings according to the latest #JOLTS data from the #BLS.
Job openings fell 10% between July and August 2022, from 11.2 million to 10.1 million.
The largest fall in job openings were in health care and social assistance, other services, and retail trade.
Job openings fell 10% between July and August 2022, from 11.2 million to 10.1 million.
The largest fall in job openings were in health care and social assistance, other services, and retail trade.
Other topline indicators in the #JOLTS report saw little to no change in August. The hires rate was unchanged as separations ticked up slightly, due in part to a mild increase in the layoffs and discharges rate while the quits rate held steady.
The level of hires increased slightly from 6.2 to 6.3 million (mostly rounding) while the level of quits ticked up (4.0 to 4.1 million) and layoffs and discharges ticked up (1.4 to 1.5 million). To be clear these changes are all pretty small and display general series volatility.
Wow, U.S. job openings dropped sharply to 10.1 million in Aug. That's a steep drop from 11.2 million in Jul and the largest one-month drop since the pandemic began.
While the level is still high, that's a more definitive sign of cooling in one of the Fed's watched metrics.
1/
While the level is still high, that's a more definitive sign of cooling in one of the Fed's watched metrics.
1/
The drop in job openings and jump in unemployment in Aug pushed the ratio of openings to unemployed workers to 1.67, down from 1.97 in Jul.
There are issues w/ this measure, but the Fed refers to it often, so the slowing here is notable.
#JOLTS 2/
There are issues w/ this measure, but the Fed refers to it often, so the slowing here is notable.
#JOLTS 2/
The drop in job openings was across the board, hitting most industries.
Note: this table shows that most industries are still seeing higher openings than pre-pandemic, but again, points to the broader economic slowdown making employers reevaluate hiring plans.
#JOLTS 3/
Note: this table shows that most industries are still seeing higher openings than pre-pandemic, but again, points to the broader economic slowdown making employers reevaluate hiring plans.
#JOLTS 3/
Job openings fell by more than 1 million in August, down to 10 million. Quits edged up (but July was revised down).
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
This was the largest one-month drop in openings on record other than in April 2020. Openings still high by historical standards, but this sure looks like the drop in labor demand we've been watching for. #JOLTS
There were 1.7 jobs per unemployed worker in August, down from a 2-to-1 ratio in July. Consistent with other evidence that the labor market has been cooling. cc @melbournecoal nytimes.com/2022/09/30/bus…
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.
Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022
#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022
#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
There were 11.2 million job openings at the end of July, UP slightly from June (though down from the spring). Quits down a hair. Layoffs basically flat (at a very low level).
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
#JOLTS
bls.gov/news.release/j…
Job openings are down from their peak, but they are still extraordinarily high by historical standards. The Fed is hoping it can cool the job market by bringing down openings without leading to more layoffs. Not a lot of evidence of that happening so far.
On the other hand, layoffs also remain extremely low, despite some high-profile job cuts in tech.
Job openings fell by more than 600,000 in June, the largest one-month decline on record, outside of the two months at the start of the pandemic. #JOLTS
nytimes.com/2022/08/02/bus…
nytimes.com/2022/08/02/bus…
Still, the job market remains strong by most standards. 10.7 million would have been far and away a record before the pandemic. And there are still 1.8 job openings for every unemployed worker (down from 2 back in March).
Layoffs remain near record lows (though data only goes back about 20 years). No sign of the uptick that we've seen in the weekly unemployment claims data.
June 2022 #JOLTS data is out. Job openings fell sharply, now four months of declines, and yet, job openings are still higher than a year ago and significantly higher than pre-pandemic. Hires and separation rates both ticked down slightly while quits and layoffs were unchanged.
Slight correction. Job openings are down each month since March's series high. That's three months in a row of declines. Please pardon the error in counting months when it's now August and the data are for June.
Mild reductions in hires, layoffs, and quits levels reported in June as the hires rate ticks down slightly and layoffs and quits rates hold steady. Layoffs continue to be low in historical terms and high levels of quits signal workers seeking (and finding) better opportunities.
U.S. job openings dropped to 11.3 million in May, showing signs of cooling even though demand still remains well above pre-recession levels. Even if the job market is cooling from white hot to red hot, it's still hot.
#JOLTS 1/
#JOLTS 1/
The drop in job openings was primarily driven by professional & business services (-325,000) and #manufacturing (-208,000). Prof & biz services openings dropped 14% MoM as hiring freezes crimped demand & pushed it back to late-2021 levels.
#JOLTS 2/
#JOLTS 2/
Manufacturing job openings dropped by 208,000 or 20% MoM in May, though labor demand in manufacturing has been more volatile, so May is still roughly consistent with levels we've seen for much of 2021–2022.
#JOLTS 3/
#JOLTS 3/
#JOLTS 11.4 million
Manufacturing JOLTS back up again!
Construction JOLTS back up again.
Those pesky robots and immigrants didn't take all the jobs. 🤨
Those pesky robots and immigrants didn't take all the jobs. 🤨
