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Lots of good stuff coming from the @RUSI_org Land Warfare Conference today a few things following:
Oleksandr Danylyuk: The west and Russia made some assessments that were poor.
Russia's military demonstrations throughout 21 were designed to get Ukraine to accept Russia's view
Oleksandr Danylyuk: The west and Russia made some assessments that were poor.
Russia's military demonstrations throughout 21 were designed to get Ukraine to accept Russia's view
The Russians thought this had worked and the West believed Russia would succeed in a matter of days.
Despite Western aid, it was Ukrainian heavy weapons that created the initial Russian reverses.
Failure to decapitate Ukr's political and mil control meant its goals failed.
Despite Western aid, it was Ukrainian heavy weapons that created the initial Russian reverses.
Failure to decapitate Ukr's political and mil control meant its goals failed.
Even after sanctions, Russia is in a much better position than Ukraine. But Ukr's successes have created misconceptions about Ru's capabilities and delayed heavy weapon deliveries.
Ukr had 200 Smerch and Uragan on 24th Feb, inability to replenish ammo has degraded their power.
Ukr had 200 Smerch and Uragan on 24th Feb, inability to replenish ammo has degraded their power.
Interesting new Russian casualty figure from head of British Army (@ArmyCGS) this morning: “Up to 33,000 Russians dead, wounded, missing or captured.” If we assume 1:3 or 1:4 ratio of KIA to wounded, then that would imply fewer than 15,000 dead—lower than previous UK estimate.
CGS: “this year alone we [UK] have supplied 9500 anti-tank missiles, of which over 5000 were NLAW. We have already provided UK-based training for 650 [Ukrainian] soldiers, and in the coming months, the British Army will deliver battle-winning skills to a further 10,000.”
UK CGS: “…historically, Russia often starts wars badly. And because Russia wages war at the strategic, not the tactical level – its depth and resilience means it can suffer any number of campaigns, battles and engagements lost, regenerate and still ultimately prevail.” #LWC2022
