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Most recents (4)
Nakamoto Portfolio Theory
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Bitcoin Valuation based on Fixed Income
Inspired by @FossGregfoss's work, we'll explore how to estimate the value of Bitcoin using credit default swaps (CDS) as fiat insurance.
You know... "for the kids".
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Bitcoin Valuation based on Fixed Income
Inspired by @FossGregfoss's work, we'll explore how to estimate the value of Bitcoin using credit default swaps (CDS) as fiat insurance.
You know... "for the kids".
1/n
In line with our other research pieces, this one comes with a web app so you can also run the numbers.
In this one you can change pretty much all assumptions (numbers in blue can be edited) including CDS levels, debt levels and other assumptions.
nakamotoportfolio.com/apps/foss
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In this one you can change pretty much all assumptions (numbers in blue can be edited) including CDS levels, debt levels and other assumptions.
nakamotoportfolio.com/apps/foss
2/n
Just like in our previous pieces, the idea is to give a framework to understand potential scenarios. Although I keep referring to them as models, these are frameworks. We provide some initial assumptions and you can create your own.
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Why #btc could rip…a thread from a shitty trader who has 35 yrs of mistakes.
In any hedging business the “easiest” way to “pretend” you have shorts that offset longs is by shorting an underlying INDEX to offset a long position in a single name.
The crypto hedge space /2
In any hedging business the “easiest” way to “pretend” you have shorts that offset longs is by shorting an underlying INDEX to offset a long position in a single name.
The crypto hedge space /2
… is no different. Think of all those players who are likely short #btc or own some delta hedge short position.
These positions include: shitcoins vs #btc, equity in miners vs #btc, equity in crypto exchanges vs #btc, equities in Nasdaq vs #btc, mining lenders vs #btc…/3
These positions include: shitcoins vs #btc, equity in miners vs #btc, equity in crypto exchanges vs #btc, equities in Nasdaq vs #btc, mining lenders vs #btc…/3
This is called being “hedged and wedged”.
Add to this historic highs in open interest on #btc futures AS WELL as potential positions with counterparties who are in bankruptcy and there is a good possibility that the “INDEX” hedge snaps back hard, relative to the other silos…/4
Add to this historic highs in open interest on #btc futures AS WELL as potential positions with counterparties who are in bankruptcy and there is a good possibility that the “INDEX” hedge snaps back hard, relative to the other silos…/4
Every reason you would buy the UST30YR right now is twice the reason you should buy #btc. A thread…
The Fed will invoke QE infinity and YCC shielding bonds…
Yes but currency debasement is thus accelerated…therefore #btc over the UST30YR
Yes but currency debasement is thus accelerated…therefore #btc over the UST30YR
1/ Tell Your Kid That Infinity Comes In Different Sizes
#parenting #learnmath #mathtwitter
Your kid probably knows infinity as the “largest number ever”.
Get ready to blow their mind - there are actually different sizes of infinity.
#parenting #learnmath #mathtwitter
Your kid probably knows infinity as the “largest number ever”.
Get ready to blow their mind - there are actually different sizes of infinity.
2/ If infinity is a number greater than any assignable quantity or countable number, how can there be different sizes?
Let's work through an example:
Let's work through an example:
3/ Step 1: Ask them to imagine that they are going to count dogs and to write down the number of dogs they have
Let them start counting dogs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5... and have them write it down as they go (do a column on a piece of paper).
Let them start counting dogs 1, 2, 3, 4, 5... and have them write it down as they go (do a column on a piece of paper).
