Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #LocalElections2021

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Dan Norris has won #WestOfEnglandMayor for #Labour making it one of the few LAB gains in #LocalElections2021.

In doing so, he also wrecked my forecast (see the Conservatives would just hold on!

So what went wrong?


@adam_ldr @StephenSumner15

... blog makes it clear that my forecast was in fact the minimum CON needed to do to win & was based on a number of assumptions.

The final vote tally saw LAB with 40k votes ahead of CON & crunching the numbers breaks the reason for this into 4 parts.

First an aside.

When analysing elections using Supplementary Vote, it's more correct to look at number of votes rather than vote shares.

That's because there are a number of steps to the final vote totals & errors can multiply along the way.

So the 1st reason for the 40k difference is ...

Read 8 tweets
Morning all. Its the @OxfordCity election count today. Starting at 10am. Follow here for results from the count as it takes place
#LocalElections2021 #LDReporter
There's 48 seats in 24 wards up for grabs
The council usually only elects half of its seats at any one time
But a boundary change (see pic) means all seats are up for election Image
Labour currently holds a majority with 34 seats, and has historically controlled the council.
See more about the different wards and current political make up of the council here…
Read 80 tweets
.@UKLabour members, @BorisJohnson appeal is he gets up everyone's nose; they are voting for him because he is sold by CCHQ as sticking two fingers up to parliament. They cannot comprehend the figures involved in #TorySleaze; they do not want to think when a slogan...
tells them what they want to hear. @Keir_Starmer needs young, hungry blood in his office that has never been to uni, people that can pump out propaganda. Lies are part of politics; I personally despise this, but this is now just the reality you face...
Stop turning up to a knife fight with a banana. #LocalElections2021
Read 4 tweets
Before the spin starts here is the truth regarding #LocalElections2021.
@UKLabour will have a disappointing night but in the area’s they lose to Cons the numbers matter. Close numbers mean people are being to consider Labour again after a decimation...
.@Conservatives were always going to win the #HartlepoolByElection. The most extensive leaving seat in the UK voting for the Vote leave Govt is no surprise & for journalists to spin it is a reflection on their intention, Cons will lose in Wales & Scotland fact...
Every seat Cons win with lies is another step towards the break up of the UK; the Cons have run up 2.5 trillion of debt we have just had two years of 0 growth far from levelling austerity will be needed even if CCHQ spin says different...
Read 4 tweets
The church warden has overslept apparently so just cast my vote in a car. #LocalElections2021
Have just had a lovely chat and giggle in the evening sun with the team at the Polling Station. And delivered a bottle of wine and a card to the Warden, along with an apology for all the attention today! Happy to report that no offence has been caused & smiles all round.
Read 3 tweets
@SpelthorneBC how long does it usually take for your monitoring officer to reply to a residents formal complaint when it has already been upheld that a #conservative #Councillor - namely Cllr Michelle Gibson - DID breach #GDPR when she gave my address to her other half please?
@shamusdoherty @cazbie16 @Sammy_18_ @Lisa_SEND @TheRealGrumpDad @CharlieL28 @SENWorldcom @L4ASurrey STILL rumbling on🤔 @ICOnews as the holder of my own data can i freely share my communications? The DPO at #Spelthorne council upheld my GDPR complaint about Cllr Gibson! #GDPR
I have of course raised this as a formal complaint no #Councillor should feel free to misuse their power to use residents personal data to allow someone to try to intimidate them! It’s absolutely disgraceful!! #ConservativeGovernment #LocalElections2021 #LocalElections #politics
Read 9 tweets

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