Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Lockdown2

Most recents (24)

A little thread about how actual #independentbookshops are now providing customers with a viable alternative to Am*z*n! #SmallBusinesses who pay their taxes can supply customers with 500k+ #books to choose from while still supporting bricks and mortar shops 🙏 RT please 1/10
Bookshop.org started in the US of A early last year. Many #bookshops in the USA found it a lifeline to help survive #lockdown. The UK launch was brought forward when #lockdown2 was on the cards in the UK to try to help #indiebookshops in the UK in the same way. 2/10
Customers can order books online from a selection of hundreds of thousands of #books for #homedelivery and nominate a chosen #bookshop to get a cut of the profits (instead of Am*z*n!) 🙌3/10
Read 10 tweets
#CoronaVirusDE #Lockdown2
La #Germania ha deciso di istituire una riserva sanitaria nazionale con dispositivi di protezione, maschere protettive, ventilatori e farmaci
In caso di emergenza, servirà a chi lavora in ospedali, case di cura e studi medici.
Il Governo federale sta mettendo a disposizione un miliardo di euro per questo, ha detto oggi il Ministro della Salute federale @jensspahn
Il governo federale immagazzinerà il materiale in 19 località per l'istituzione della National Health Reserve. Entro la fine del 2021 la riserva sarà piena di prodotti.
Read 5 tweets
With @imperialcollege React 7a results there is a question that desperately needs asking.

Why did the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 fall in every age group apart from the two including school children?

1/
2/

I remember when the lie was:

-children don't catch #COVID
-children only catch it from adults
-children don't transmit it to each other.

@CMO_England this is really starting to look like solid evidence the above were lies.
3/

Children started with the highest prevalence & are the only groups with more cases after #lockdown2

If I were:

@theflva
@ukactive
@RoyalAcadMusic
@apac_ssn
@CBI_London

I would be furious that all the sacrifices were squandered so @HuwMerriman didn't have to back down
Read 9 tweets
FWIW, I’ve been comparing my UK economic forecasts with those of the #OBR. There is a much more positive story than the Chancellor told in Wednesday’s #SpendingReview #SR20 📢

Let’s start with the near-term outlook… (1/8)
The #OBR assumes that the economic impact of #lockdown2 will be ‘three-fifths’ that seen during the first lockdown, when #GDP fell by 25% in March and April. This means that lockdown2 would take the level of #GDP back to 15% below its pre-Covid peak… (2/8)
Given that #GDP was 8.2% lower in September than February, and assuming little change in October, this is consistent with a fall of around 7% m/m in November, which is what’s in the #OBR’s ‘central forecast’. This seems about right to me... (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Schools or Partying?

On 12/11 coronavirus cases spiked to 33k cases, it remains the only day where over 30k have been reported...

But the partying narrative is part of the agenda to keep schools open 'at all costs'

Please read on, it's going to take c. 10 min to post...

1/
2/

We know .gov have been pushing journalists to infer its was due to pre-lockdown partying

For example @nicktriggle's piece from 16/11, but this appears to be lazy journalism.

3/

If we look at data y swab date, a more worrying picture emerges.

We can clearly see there are TWO days with more than 30k cases.

The first and highest on record is actually 2/11. This is the Monday after #lockdown2 was announced.
Read 14 tweets
#Covid19 Sehr geehrte Frau Dr. #MERKEL, ich habe Sie nie gewählt und sehr oft kritisiert, ich bin aber FROH und DANKBAR, dass SIE während dieser #Pandemie unsere BUNDESKANZLERIN sind🙏! Ohne Sie, hätten die egoistischen Landesfürsten*innen, welche leider die Mehrheit [1 von 10]
darstellen, sicherlich für noch höhere #Corona-#Infektionszahlen gesorgt bzw. das #Infektionsgeschehen wäre aktuell noch weitaus dramatischer. Ich persönlich bin mir sicher, wären Ihnen die Länder in den vergangenen Monaten zu 100% gefolgt, hätten wir uns sogar den [2 von 10]
#Wellenbrecherlockdown ersparen können bzw. der #Lockdown2 (#LockdownLight) wäre zumindest mit erheblich weniger Eingriffen in die Grundrechte möglich gewesen! Vielleicht wären auch schon seit Monaten bezahlbare FFP2 #Atemmasken für die Bürger*innen der BRD erhältlich, [3 von 10]
Read 10 tweets
1/ Dieser Artikel enthält nich eine einzige neue Information & dennoch scheint es wichtig, d. Inhalt nochmals klarzustellen:
Unsere Intensiv beatmet bereits über Standardkapazität hinaus.
Der Anteil beatmungspflichtiger COVID-19 Pat. mit langen Verweildauern steigt stetig.
2/ Umliegende Zentren nehmen bereits jetzt nicht mehr auf. 2 Diskussionen dürfen nun nicht mit einander vermischt werden:
A) Umgang m. akuter Krisensituation macht Szenarien notwendig, d. sich niemand wünscht. Nämlich Akquise v Personal f. Intensiv, d. dort eigtl nicht arbeiten.
3/ Folge ist, dass weniger routiniertes Personal schwer kranke, beatmete Pat. (teilweise im Multiorganversagen) mitbehandeln. Das reduziert unweigerlich die Überlebenschancen & erklärt den dtl. Anstieg der Sterblichkeit, wenn Kapazitäten überlastet sind.
Read 5 tweets
#Coronavirus: Vanuatu Island Records First Case Of COVID-19 In Traveler From The #US 😥

english.alarabiya.net/en/coronavirus…

#Vanuatu has recorded its first #Covid_19 case, health officials announced Wednesday, ending the Pacific island nation’s status as one of the few countries...
... in the world to remain virus-free. The health department said a 23-year-old man who had recently returned from the #UnitedStates was confirmed to have the virus on Tuesday after being tested in quarantine."

#Vanuatu #Covid19
Read 8 tweets
1/
In 🇩🇪 werden wir jetzt wieder monatelang diskutieren, warum es zu einem Abflachen der #Covid Fälle noch vor dem #Lockdown2 kam und ob dieser notwendig war.
Fakt ist: vom 1. bis 30.10. lag exponentielles Wachstum vor. Anschließend kam es zu einem Abflachen der Kurve.
2/
Grund hierfür kann sein, dass bereits ab dem 15.10. die Maßnahmen in Deutschland gemäß Government Response Stringency Index verschärft wurden laut @OurWorldInData. Und ~2 Wochen später kam es zu einem Abflachen der #CovidFälle. Am 22.10. kam es zu einer erneuten Verschärfung.
3/
Die Maßnahmen Kritiker werden hingegen argumentieren, dass der #Lockdown2 unnötig war, da die Fallzahlen Wachstum schon vor dem Beginn am 2.11 abgeschwächt wurde.
Stichwort: logistisches Wachstum (Sigmoid Funktion)
So könnte ein Sigmoid ungefähr aussehen für die 2. Welle
Read 4 tweets
Day 1 of #Lockdown2.

This is not as stringent a lockdown as before - children are still at school (which has benefits for the children), and people are less apprehensive than the first lockdown.
The lockdown was announced in advance, and we have seen people go to shops yesterday in great numbers to ensure they have the products they want.

And yesterday was seen by some as the last chance for a gathering.

Both these things will have increased transmission.
Due to the less stringent measures this time around, it will mean that it will take longer for the incidence of the virus to reduce. (We could have timed measures around the half term holiday, which would have meant that the measures were more effective).
Read 6 tweets
A thread on the modelling and analysis used to suggest scenarios for what *could* happen if we do nothing. And commentary on this slide.
The slides that were presented in the Number 10 press conference on 31 October are here:
gov.uk/government/pub…
Firstly, commentary on the modelling. Modelling for Covid-19 is performed by a number of academic groups around the country. They use different modelling techniques. Some of these models are used to come up with the R value.
Read 26 tweets
we talk a lot about optimism bias as a reason govt projects go wrong-- assuming things can be delivered too quickly and at lower cost than it usually turns out .. @instituteforgov and @NAOorguk both have written on this
and optimism - and making people feel optimistic is a huge asset in politics.. whether its Boris boosterism, Obama hope/change or a Blairite new dawn
But optimism seems to have been the curse of UK politics in the past decade.. first David Cameron's assumption he could wing - and win - a referendum because guys like him just always wing and win... #effortlesssuperiority
Read 10 tweets
A thread about covid & how improving our metabolic health might help👇

I'm an NHS GP with an interest in T2 diabetes.

It's been clear since early in the pandemic that people with poor metabolic health, particularly T2D, obesity & high BP are at an increased risk.

1/10
Suspicious that SARS-CoV-2 thrives in elevated blood sugar, I've been advising my patients to make some simple dietary changes:

1. CUT OUT SUGAR
2. AVOID PROCESSED FOOD (it's high in sugar & other unhealthy stuff)
3. REDUCE CARBS (carbs convert to sugar in the body)

2/10
I've seen some really impressive results:

❤️Reduced Blood Pressure
💉 Improved Blood Sugar
⚖️ significant weight improvement

Some have put their T2D into remission 👏

I'm hopeful their improved metabolic health will reduce their risk of severe infection 💪

3/10
Read 10 tweets
die regierung #kurz kann "the hammer". der erste #lockdown hat funktioniert und uns zeit verschafft.
zeit, die jedoch nicht für sinnvolle maßnahmen genutzt wurde. der "dance" hat versagt.
es folgt nun #Lockdown2

wie nimmt kurz die menschen mit?
#zibspezial

thread zur rede👇
#kurz startet mit einer EINWANDVORWEGNAHME

er weiß: die stimmung ist kritisch, viele nehmen das virus nicht ernst und wollen sich nicht an maßnahmen halten.

er will ihnen den wind aus den segeln nehmen und spricht die DROHENDE GEFAHR an.
#kurz setzt noch eines drauf und betont die NEGATIVEN FOLGEN (also was passiert, wenn wir nichts tun).

Der Aufbau seiner Rede folgt dem klassischen PROBLEM-LÖSUNGS-MUSTER.
Read 11 tweets
Oje, Anschober-#ZiB2-Interview nachgeschaut. Er spekuliert lieber über mutiertes ansteckenderes Virus (=Höhere-Gewalt-Framing) statt Entwicklung/Studien anderer Ländern anzuschauen: Lodernde exponentielle Entwicklung durch unentdeckten/ungetesteten Community-Spread via Schulen.
Hier gibt's eine aktuelle Zusammenfassung bzgl. Mutationen (Spoiler: Wahrscheinlicher ist, was ich oben als Alternative beschrieben habe) nzzas.nzz.ch/wissen/corona-… #COVID19 #COVID19at #CoronaVirusAT #zib2
Das Problematische: Bei aller Anerkennung für das
offene Eingeständnis, die Situation bis vor kurzem so fatal falsch eingeschätzt zu haben, scheint Anschober nach wie vor schlecht beraten zu sein. #COVID19 #COVID19at #CoronaVirusAT #zib2
Read 9 tweets
It’s devastating that we’re at this point again: nobody wanted #Lockdown2. But 1 thing needs to be clear: there is no point in having #lockdownUK if the govt doesn’t spend that time reforming their privately-led and failing test and trace system @BBCNews bbc.co.uk/news/health-54…
Given the catastrophic failure of the government’s £10bn test and trace system, it’s astonishing that the Prime Minister did not mention HOW he intends to get us out of #Lockdown2. Wishful thinking about Christmas will not be enough. @IndependentSage
The reality is this virus has outpaced this govt’s political indecision-making. In last 6 wks when govt could have implemented a 2-week national lockdown (instead of 4+ weeks now), they wasted time with local Tiers123. Tiers have not reversed spread of virus or helped businesses.
Read 3 tweets
1/7

If you are wondering why #Lockdown2 is being rolled out in the UK, Germany, France and elsewhere, then who better to ask than Klaus Schwab, ultra-influential head of the World Economic Forum and co-author of 'Covid-19: The Great Reset'.
2/7

Schwab is delighted to report: “During the lockdowns, many consumers previously reluctant to rely too heavily on digital applications and services were forced to change their habits almost overnight:

winteroak.org.uk/2020/10/05/kla…
3/7

"Watching movies online instead of going to the cinema, having meals delivered instead of going out to restaurants, talking to friends remotely instead of meeting them in the flesh...

#GreatReset #4IR
Read 7 tweets
4⃣9⃣ Days since Brexit would actually have been done if the 44% hadn't voted Tory in December 2019.

Today was the Negotiation deadline- Now extended.
#Lockdown2 announced today so businesses will be closed when they find out which Brexit they must prepare for😱
#IsBrexitDoneYet?
5⃣1⃣ Days since Brexit would actually have been done if the 44% hadn't voted Tory in December 2019.

@MikeCherryFSB, head of Small Business Federation, said businesses hit by lockdown/Covid costs, need financial help to deal with Brexit as "a matter of urgency".

#IsBrexitDoneYet
5⃣3⃣ Days since Brexit would actually have been done if the 44% hadn't voted Tory in December 2019.

"Wide differences" still remain between the UK and EU negotiating positions as the mid-November final deadline approaches.
#IsBrexitDoneYet

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Read 15 tweets
#BREAKING: England to enter second national lockdown for a month from Thursday 5th November

Hear the details from @BorisJohnson here. #CovidUK #Lockdown2 #lockdown #coronavirus #BreakingNews #BorisJohnson
This is terrifying!

#BorisJohnson says even if the NHS had DOUBLE the capacity it still wouldn’t be enough

The NHS has 150,000 beds & with the Nightgale Hospitals there is even greater capacity

Its biggest weakness isn't space, it's staff shortages.
#Lockdown2 #covidbriefing
The reality of “Yo-Yo” #lockdown has been known about since May👇

Govt scientists have modelled for 2nd, 3rd, 4th waves etc. but this modelling was not shared publicly by the secretive #JointBiosecurityCentre running the UK #COVID19 response.
#lockdownUK
Read 13 tweets
The biggest weakness in the NHS as we head into the #Lockdown2 isn't space, because we have the Nightingale Hospitals... it's staff shortages.

I sure hope we haven't done anything in recent years to alienate a group of people who statistically improve our doctor-patient ratio.
This is @AlisonPittard from the Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine, proving that I'm not making this up.
Brexit has made lockdown one and #Lockdown2 worse.
And now Michael Gove has admitted that NHS staff shortages (which have been made worse by Brexit) are going to be the worst thing about Lockdown2.
#Marr
Read 4 tweets
I don't know if this is hilarious, scary, or just nuts.
Can you spot the exact day when president Macron announced #Lockdown2 & everyone fled Paris like a plagued city in the Middle Ages?
that's a jump from 81 to 117 in just one day, something that never happened in the data, even during #lockdown1 or when it ended. (Daily changes YTD)
And let's face it, people in Marseille are not too keen about staying there either
Read 4 tweets
[Thread] Protecting yourself from viruses ‘is not just about ventilation, it’s about humidity in rooms’ -Dr @laoneill111 on @NewstalkFM #Covid19

& here’s why... 1/
In autumn conditions, as across Europe now, temperatures have dropped (10-15°C) people have moved indoors, heating is on & windows closed. #Covid19 cases have risen 2/ Image
It’s similar to last Spring when the hot-spot #Covid19 outbreaks were in yellow zone (Wuhan, New York, Seattle, cities in Iran, Italy, Spain, France, UK & Ireland) at 5-11°C, low absolute humidity 3/ jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… Image
Read 15 tweets
I've been crunching some numbers: if the reasonable worst case with partial mitigation is indeed 85,000 more #Covid deaths in the UK, it's very hard to justify going any further, especially if the alternative is #Lockdown2... (1/3)
Eg. suppose a full #lockdown would cut this number by 50%, to 42,500, and each premature death prevented is valued at £600k (10 years of life at the full QALY value of £60k from the Green Book, not the lower NHS figure of £30k), that's worth £25.5bn... (2/3)
That's about 5% of one quarter's GDP. But another national #lockdown could easily cost 10% - and that's without taking account of other harms done by the lockdown to people's welfare.

Obviously I'm simplying a lot here, but can those supporting a lockdown do any better? (3/3)
Read 3 tweets
Im Rahmen vom #Lockdown2 wird viel über die ICU-Auslastung gequatscht. Gequatscht deshalb, weil es einen Elefanten im Raum gibt, den kaum jemand nennt: die Zahl von Patienten, die positiv auf #COVID19 getestet wurden, steigt, nicht aber die Gesamtauslastung. (1/5)
Dazu MUSS man diesen Artikel lesen: heise.de/amp/tp/feature… (2/5)
Kurz zusammengefasst: Um als Corona-Intensivpatient zu zählen, braucht es nur einen positiven Test - mehr nicht. Symptomatik? Egal.

Das ist ähnlich wie bei den Toten: Wenn einer Fallschirmspringen ohne Fallschirm betreibt und der Schwerkraft gen Boden folgt, ... (3/5)
Read 5 tweets

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