Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #LockdownHolland
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Am I crazy? I listened to #Rutte and understand the pont for herd immunity. It allows a laisez faire approach after the pain is over.. however, for a visur with an R0 of 2.35 you need 43% of the population to be immune and been through the disease. (1/x)
So that means that some 7,493,610 people (minal) should have been through the disease. Assuming the GGD under reporting rate of 1/6th (rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederla… ) that means that 1,248,935 should test positive (or at least have symptoms warranting testing) (2/x)
If we then assume a hospitalization rate of 12 % (jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/… ) (which is currently at 15% (205/1413, rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele…) this means 149,872 require hostpital care.
