Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #LongIndia
Most recents (4)
Given unprecedented inflation in advanced economies, one has to question their policy choices through the pandemic. While the shock to energy and food prices from the European war is a proximate cause, excessive fiscal stimulus during 2020 had fragilized these countries.
For example, UK could soon see inflation north of 20%. These levels are unheard of, last seen many decades ago. This will deal a severe blow to real disposable incomes and household savings. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 
What must be noted and remembered is most of the "policy experts" and economists were building pressure for India to follow the same playbook in 2020: go for a huge fiscal stimulus, even as the country went into a total lockdown. Slam brakes and accelerator simultaneously!
In November 2020, a journalist wrote a piece titled "Why I Am Losing Hope In India". The screed was shared widely by the usual suspects, offering an extremely negative prognosis on how the India story might be on its last legs.
Let us assess how things have turned out over the last ~15 months for India and the Indian economy.
Entrepreneurship: 2021 was a record year for IPOs and for new unicorns minted.
Entrepreneurship: 2021 was a record year for IPOs and for new unicorns minted.
India continued to see net investment from institutional investors, even as other Asian countries saw significant net outflows - reflecting investor confidence in Indian business.
To understand Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s thinking, let us explore this article - includes the presentation that he apparently made in front of PM @narendramodi recently.
(Some graphs are created by TOI, and are not part of the presentation. Behind paywall)
m.timesofindia.com/india/why-indi…
(Some graphs are created by TOI, and are not part of the presentation. Behind paywall)
m.timesofindia.com/india/why-indi…
First thing to notice is that RJ sees a clear trend towards faster growth in India over the last half century. One can quibble over the numbers but the trend is your friend (until it isn’t.)
I had a similar graph on my substack except it was on per capita growth rates.
I had a similar graph on my substack except it was on per capita growth rates.
The more important thing to notice is that RJ thesis is based on not some narrow financial understanding but a holistic economic history, geo-political and sociological-anthropological basis as well (again, quibbles aside.) That’s the only way to test a view and build confidence.
No of airports, metros, dedicated freight corridors, semi high speed lines, expressways, highways, roads, ports, sanitation/sewage systems, electricity/drinking water last mile networks on top of “soft” infra, digital public goods is incredible. More to come #LongIndia #NewIndia
2015-2025 will be the decade when we connected the last billion Indians to national and global economy. It wouldn’t be something that only the rich or the middle classes can do anymore. The deluge of human productivity and aspirations that this is releasing is just mind boggling.
Imagine a now rural or ‘rurban’ household which within the next 3-5 years can afford a made-in-India AC, washing machine, microwave, EV 2W etc, can order for goods/food online. Imagine change in women’s lives especially- and if more of them are educated, decide to join workforce.
