Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #MSOgang
Most recents (8)
POSaBIT, a top cannabis payment company, on their 1Q call tonight stated: "...pricing began to stabilize (in March) and many MSOs reported that demand is coming back. In fact, we saw evidence of this in our own transactional sales volume.
$POSAF $PBIT
$POSAF $PBIT
We began accelerating again toward the end of first quarter. Our March volume increased more than 20% compared to February, representing the largest volume month in our corporate history.
And as we headed into second quarter, April outperformed March in terms of transactional volume in revenue."
$VRNOF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Strong headline numbers on their first ever qtrly report. Total revs in 2020 up ~200% on PF basis and +247% for Verano standalone and +134% for AltMed (FL) standalone. Mostly organic per my understanding
...
1. Strong headline numbers on their first ever qtrly report. Total revs in 2020 up ~200% on PF basis and +247% for Verano standalone and +134% for AltMed (FL) standalone. Mostly organic per my understanding
...
2. Margins were very impressive. 63% PF GMs and 48% PF EBITDA margins. Looks like Verano standalone EM was 45% and AltMed was 53.5% in 2020. These are $TCNNF level margins with a more diversified footprint. EBITDA recon. looked fairly clean to me. There were some ??s on that...
3. Core states: IL, FL, AZ, NJ, PA, OH, MD. Company executing on capacity expansions in most of these states and deepening retail footprint throughout. Recent M&A and commentary suggests they aren't done in AZ and PA. I anticipate they will acquire cultivation in PA before YE
...
...
$TCNNF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Solid beat on revs and EBITDA
2. Now selling 1 ton of weed/week(!)
3. Dominant position in FL = v strong financial metrics. 2020: 74% GM, 48% EBITDA margin, GAAP EPS of $0.53, CFO positive. Can't be overstated how strong these metrics are
...
1. Solid beat on revs and EBITDA
2. Now selling 1 ton of weed/week(!)
3. Dominant position in FL = v strong financial metrics. 2020: 74% GM, 48% EBITDA margin, GAAP EPS of $0.53, CFO positive. Can't be overstated how strong these metrics are
...
4. In particular, I'm impressed by the magnitude of GAAP EPS. The company generated GAAP profits (and ~$100M of CFO) AFTER paying a 60% effective tax rate in 2020. Folks got excited about $GTBIF's GAAP profitability last week - $TCNNF easily beating that bar
...
...
5. We should expect some margin dilution over the next 24 months as the company ramps operations outside of FL. Unlikely $TCNNF will be able to achieve such high margins outside of FL so expect blended margins to mix down (not a negative, just math)
...
...
$GTBIF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Strong beat across the board. 4Q revs/EBITDA up 2.3x/4.7x yoy, mostly organic. 37% EBITDA margin. Positive on a GAAP net income basis for 2nd straight qtr. 4th straight qtr of positive cash from ops. Execution continues to be v. strong.
...
1. Strong beat across the board. 4Q revs/EBITDA up 2.3x/4.7x yoy, mostly organic. 37% EBITDA margin. Positive on a GAAP net income basis for 2nd straight qtr. 4th straight qtr of positive cash from ops. Execution continues to be v. strong.
...
2. 54 disp open rn; looking to hit the cap where they can. Driving deep into their core markets
3. CPG mix continues to increase on a net basis from 26% in 1Q to 32% in 4Q.
4. Sounds like they pulled forward a little revenue in 4Q from 1Q21
...
3. CPG mix continues to increase on a net basis from 26% in 1Q to 32% in 4Q.
4. Sounds like they pulled forward a little revenue in 4Q from 1Q21
...
5. Company invested $110-120M of capex in 2020. "Will go bigger" in 2021
6. Company doesn't think AZ is as attractive as their other markets. I recently heard @Bkov9 say something similar about FL. Interesting given other MSOs are aggressively investing in these two states
...
6. Company doesn't think AZ is as attractive as their other markets. I recently heard @Bkov9 say something similar about FL. Interesting given other MSOs are aggressively investing in these two states
...
$CCHWF Earnings - My Takeaways:
1. Strong quarter, with highest qtrly EBITDA ever. Key part of the "improving profitability" story
2. Top markets in 4Q: CO, MA, PA, OH, IL
3. CA and FL should be big drivers in 2021
...
1. Strong quarter, with highest qtrly EBITDA ever. Key part of the "improving profitability" story
2. Top markets in 4Q: CO, MA, PA, OH, IL
3. CA and FL should be big drivers in 2021
...
4. On CA, company is a real believer in the market (unlike most of the MSOs). CC looking to build regional density and scale accordingly. Company also looking to be a major wholesale player
...
...
5. On FL, $CCHWF believes it will be one of their best markets. Company working hard here including launching edibles (2021) and driving operational efficiencies. Sees a lot of "white space" in FL, which I see as a positive readthrough for $TCNNF (and others)
...
...
$AYRWF earnings - my takeaways.
1. Micro misses on 4Q revs and EBITDA but the execution continues to be v strong. 48% organic growth
2. EBITDA margins ticked down due to investments as the company prepares to integrate assets and build foundation for future growth.
...
1. Micro misses on 4Q revs and EBITDA but the execution continues to be v strong. 48% organic growth
2. EBITDA margins ticked down due to investments as the company prepares to integrate assets and build foundation for future growth.
...
3. $AYRWF mgmt are high quality operators. The 5 NV dispensaries in 4Q generated $21.3MM run-rate revs each(!). MA disp run-rate grew to $11.8MM from $10.1MM in 3Q. MA wholesale grew 109% yoy and 22% qoq. NV performance likely tough to replicate but strong foundation
...
...
4. Company delivered its 7th straight qtr of positive EBITDA and 6th straight qtr of positive CFO. FCF was $22MM for the year...
5. Great year but, the $AYRWF story is a 2021 and 2022 story, on that front...
5. Great year but, the $AYRWF story is a 2021 and 2022 story, on that front...
Took the weekend to revisit and write down my #cannabis thesis.
Company commentary at the bottom. $AYRWF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $CURLF
Best ETF: $MSOS
(This post is not investment advice)
Company commentary at the bottom. $AYRWF $GTBIF $VRNOF $TCNNF $CRLBF $CURLF
Best ETF: $MSOS
(This post is not investment advice)
TL;dr:
- Cannabis should grow durably over the next 3-5 years
- Several potential catalysts on the come from new states legalizing cannabis to Congressional action (SAFE Banking, decriminalization, legalization)
- Attractive valuations, especially for the growth...
- Cannabis should grow durably over the next 3-5 years
- Several potential catalysts on the come from new states legalizing cannabis to Congressional action (SAFE Banking, decriminalization, legalization)
- Attractive valuations, especially for the growth...
1) According to @NewFrontierData, cannabis is a $80Bn market today, but only $20Bn are legal sales and $60Bn are illicit. Legal sales are estimated to grow to $41.5Bn in 2025 (mid-teens CAGR) assuming no new states legalize in the future, which is very conservative...
I'm v excited about an #DeFi: an open financial system w reasonable valuations, real users, real revenue, a simple & direct model for remunerating "shareholders" & lenders, & a clear mkt beyond speculators: those w non-traditional income sources.
#ETH $AAVE $UNI $COMP $YFI
1/6
#ETH $AAVE $UNI $COMP $YFI
1/6
#DeFi protocols generate real revenue & distribute it directly to hodlers via coin burns which I think of as "programmatic stock buybacks". They also have known market caps.
This allows valuation via P/S ratios
2/6
theblockcrypto.com/data/decentral…
This allows valuation via P/S ratios
2/6
theblockcrypto.com/data/decentral…
Many #DeFi valuations are smaller than SaaS w higher growth rates.
Annualized revenue & P/S ratios:
- UNI: $1.14B, P/S ~6
- SUSHI: $550M, P/S ~3.5
- COMP: $400M, P/S ~4.3
- AAVE: ~$144M/y w P/S ~30
- MKR: ~$60M, P/S ~30
- SNX: $36M, P/S ~75
3/6
Annualized revenue & P/S ratios:
- UNI: $1.14B, P/S ~6
- SUSHI: $550M, P/S ~3.5
- COMP: $400M, P/S ~4.3
- AAVE: ~$144M/y w P/S ~30
- MKR: ~$60M, P/S ~30
- SNX: $36M, P/S ~75
3/6
