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ELECTION THREAD!
Dearest Earthlings, I am proud to present my full manifesto for the 2021 London Elections. It is a fully-costed suite of policies which marries fiscal responsibility, social awareness, and not being an anti-vaccine nutjob. This is my 21-Point Plan for ‘21...!
✅ London Bridge to be renamed after Phoebe Waller.

#HammersmithBridge to be repaired, and renamed Wayne after the former England international footballer.

✅ Croydon to get a facelift, ironically.

✅ No shop to be allowed to sell a croissant for more than £1.

1/8
✅ Free parking between Vine Street and The Strand (for electric vehicles only)

✅ HS2 protestors to be allowed to build their tunnel at Euston, all the way to Birmingham. To be followed by a second tunnel that links Birmingham to Manchester

✅ Finish Crossrail.

2/8
Read 11 tweets
One of the issues I have repeatedly raised in my campaign speeches this #GE2020SG has been the problem of stagnant productivity. I see poor productivity growth as the most critical economic challenge that the country will confront in the decades ahead. Why is this so important?
Because in the long run, the only way to ensure sustainable growth in our output and incomes per capita is through improvements in productivity. But because it is a technical subject, people tend to shy away from discussions about the matter. I think that this is a mistake.
It's useful to start with some definitions. The simplest definition of productivity is output per worker. So if I can make two hammers in an hour, and my colleague only makes one, I am twice as productive my coworker. All else equal, I should be paid twice as much in wages.
Read 15 tweets
Economists define 3 main forms of unemployment: frictional (what happens when you move btw jobs); structural (when you lose your job because your industry is now defunct); and cyclical (when you’re fired because of a recession). In Singapore, the latter two are more relevant. Image
The latter 2 are the forms that are targeted by a redundancy insurance (RI) scheme, which seeks to cushion the effects of involuntary job loss. RI works via risk pooling: with job displacements (and RI payouts) occurring at different times, the common cash pool remains liquid.
In addition to income replacement (which is often partial, to retain the incentive for job seeking, and also for financial sustainability), RI can reduce the psychic sense of insecurity that results from losing one’s job (which can also promote entrepreneurial risk taking).
Read 7 tweets
One of the main policy positions the #workersparty is advancing this #ge2020sg is an objection to a GST hike, of 7 to 9 percent. It’s worth understanding why such a move would be an error, both in the shorter and longer run.
In the near term, a GST increase amounts to contractionary fiscal policy. If we believe that this could be a prolonged recession, a premature tightening of macro policy would short-circuit a nascent rebound, and the shock may even send the economy back into recession.
This largely describes the case of Japan, which has remained in a low-growth regime, and often fell into recession each time it either attempted to (or actually did) increase its consumption tax, ever since 1997. Consumption tax hikes may have well prolonged its lost decade(s).
Read 10 tweets
One of the policies that the #workersparty is advancing this #ge2020sg is the policy of a minimum wage. Many who are unfamiliar with this concept—or who only encounter this idea in intro econ texts—tend to reject it as an unnecessary gov intervention that would raise unemployment
I used to think that way. But since the work of Card-Krueger in the 1990s, economists’ understanding of the effects have evolved. Using modern econometrics, paper after paper has shown little to no employment losses from the intro of min wages & improvements in worker welfare
Of course, it would be absurd to argue that capacity to raise wages above prevailing levels is boundless. But real wage growth in Singapore over the past decade (1.9%) was outrun by real GDP growth over the same period (4.5%), meaning that there is slack for greater labor share
Read 7 tweets

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