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The Weekly Recap (12.06.23 ~ 16.06.23) 🧵

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.

#MacroMonday #market
1. We kicked off the week with our CPI Preview, highlighting the importance of keeping an eye out for the #used cars and #shelter prints.

2. This was followed by an in-depth analysis of the #fiscal impulse. Overall, our assessment suggested that government #revenues continue to paint a picture of weak private sector conditions.

Read 9 tweets
As was widely expected, the @federalreserve today halted the most aggressive policy rate #HikingCycle since 1980, leaving the Fed Funds range unchanged at 5.0% to 5.25%, a level that appears clear to us to be finally having an impact on the #economy.
We think today’s actions represent a “Hawkish skip,” which implies that #policy makers are seeking more #data before potentially hiking rates again in July, or September.
For our part, we think #ChairPowell’s comments at the press conference made it clear that the #FOMC is seeking to balance increasingly restrictive monetary policy with the high degree of uncertainty around the tightening of #CreditConditions
Read 15 tweets
Thread:-

Why Investing in Companies with Peak Profit Margins Requires Caution 📉⛔️

👇👇👇 Image
1/7: #Investing in companies at peak profit margins can be risky. As #companies reach their maximum profitability, a phenomenon known as mean reversion often occurs. This means that profit margins tend to revert back to their long-term average levels over time.
2/7: Mean reversion suggests that high profit margins may not be sustainable in the long run. As margins normalize or decrease, it can lead to potential declines in the company's stock price. So, exercise caution when considering such #investment’s
Read 9 tweets
1. What a mess these two #SEC lawsuits have created: first, the one filed yesterday against #Binance, and second, the one today against #Coinbase! What are the reasons? The SEC has deemed 12 #crypto tokens as securities, namely: Image
2. BNB, BUSD, SOL, ADA, MATIC, #FIL, ATOM, #SAND, #MANA, #ALGO, AXS, and COTI. Because of this, the SEC is accusing both crypto exchanges of running illegal exchange operations. How might this affect the broader crypto market? First of all, we have an increased risk associated Image
3. with #altcoins. Therefore, building a crypto portfolio using blue-chip coins like #Bitcoin and #Ethereum would be much more sensible under these circumstances (however, please bear in mind that ETH is not entirely outside the possible #SEC regulatory purview). Image
Read 6 tweets
We’ve seen the pace of #payroll gains decelerate to roughly the monthly trend pace from the last expansion; consensus has been waiting for this moment and expected a 195,000 job gain in May, but the data printed considerably stronger at 339,000 #jobs gained.
The three-month moving average of #nonfarm payrolls sits at 283,000, down from 334,000 jobs at the start of the year, but what the #LaborMarket imbalance needs is more supply and more slack.
The #unemployment rate ticked up to 3.65%, close to its 12-month average level, and average hourly #earnings (a volatile figure) gained 0.33% month-over-month and 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Read 14 tweets
#MarketAtClose | #Midcaps continue to outperform, Nifty Midcap Index posts record close
#Sensex, #Nifty & #NiftyBank close with minor gains in a range-bound session
Sensex rises 119 points to 62,547 & Nifty 46 points to 18,534
Midcap Index gains 154 points to 33,967 & Nifty Bank… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
#MarketAtClose | #Metal stocks rise on improved global prices, #Hindalco up over 3%
#ApolloHospitals gains another 3% on Friday, up 8% for the week
#HeroMoto continues its positive run, less than 2% away from 52-wk high
#Auto stocks rise after strong sales in May, M&M, #Maruti,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#MarketAtClose | #Pharma stocks see some buying, Dr Reddy’s, Sun, Laurus up over 1% each
New-age cos like #Zomato & #Nykaa see healthy gains on Friday, up 4-8%
4 #Nifty stocks (#BajajAuto, #Britannia, #TaMo, #ApolloHosp) hit 52-week highs today
M&M Fin gains more than 1% to hit… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 4 tweets
#MarketAtClose | #Market closes near day’s low as financial heavyweights underperform

Nifty Bank ends with a cut of 1% against a flat close for #Sensex & #Nifty

#Midcaps relatively outperform, market breadth favours advances Image
#MarketAtClose | #Sensex falls 194 points to 62,429 & Nifty 47 points to 18,488

#NiftyBank slips 338 points to 43,790 while #Midcap index rises 51 points to 33,812
#MarketAtClose | Coal India falls as government brings #OFS at discount, non-retail portion fully subscribed

Saudi Aramco’s sharp cut in #propane price weighs on Gujarat Gas, stock down 4% Image
Read 7 tweets
Many investors believe that SIP is the best #investment strategy.

It can earn them higher returns.

The logic: It averages the purchase price.

But this is not entirely true.

SIP may not necessarily fetch you better returns.

And it’s NOT an investment strategy.

A 🧵
SIP is a smart way to invest.

You put in small sums every month. Over time, you create a huge corpus.

But it’s not a strategy.

Why?

Simply put, a “strategy” is when you use some kind of data or indicators to buy and sell.

Investors don’t do that for SIP.
Now, let’s look at data to understand why SIP doesn’t always earn you better returns.

Let’s say you invested a lumpsum for 7 years – from Oct 26, 2008, to Oct 26, 2015.

Your returns = 19.8%

What if you did an SIP during this period?

Your returns (XIRR) = 13.46% Image
Read 8 tweets
Here is this Week’s Market Wrap 'FOMO & False Starts' written by @shyamsek

A Thread (1/n)

#stockmarket #investing #personalfinance #FOMO #marketwrap
The markets go up too quickly when people are least prepared for it. That setting is perfect for us to get that fear of missing out. We call it the FOMO feeling. (2/n)

#stockmarket
But the markets also have an equally strong way of reversing direction. Either in stock price or in a broader market context. (3/n)

#stockmarketindia #stocks #equity
Read 13 tweets
If you ever wondered...

"Do I need a Financial Advisor?"

...this thread can help you decide!

Read on! (1/n)

#financialadvisor #financialplanning #financialgoals #personalfinance #thread
Before we begin, reflect on these two questions...

When choosing between two similar investment options, have you ever wondered which one you should pick?

Ever wondered if an #insurance policy could protect your family or if it was just bells and whistles? (2/n)

#investing
These are the exact situations in which a Financial Advisor can help do away with uncertainty and help you make the right choices for YOU!

Here are 4 ways how a Financial Advisor can help: (3/n)

#financialadvisor #financialplanning #personalfinance
Read 13 tweets
"In Marlborough, #Near #independent small business cost reduction services company "Brian Plain at Schooley Mitchell", 01752 is in #demand (and picking up quickly), based on #homeprices, #inventory and days on the #market: schooleymitchell.com/jgifford/ g.co/kgs/oW5Tbw #housing"
Marlborough MA area #HomeSellers, check out Gary Kelley a #local REALTOR® at Lamacchia Realty, Inc. in
#Marlborough, #Massachusetts, United States · #REALTOR® · #LamacchiaRealtyInc:
g.co/kgs/cePKsB
lamacchiarealty.com/team_members/g…
#Marlborough #MA #RealEstate #LocalAgentGaryKelly"
"Learn more #about local small business cost reduction & #savings #opportunities, #online at:

Schooley Mitchell: Brian Plain & Joe Gifford
225 Cedar Hill St
Suite 200 D117 Marlborough, MA 01752
508-266-5814 g.co/kgs/oW5Tbw
schooleymitchell.com/jgifford/
google.com/mymaps/viewer?…"
Read 4 tweets
Some tips on how to become a smart investor: #sarmaaya #learning #investor
Educate yourself: Stay informed about the financial markets, industry trends, and economic developments that could impact your investments. Attend seminars, read books, and consult with financial advisors to learn as much as you can.
#financialadvisor #learn #sarmaayatraining
Have a plan: Set clear investment goals and develop a well-thought-out plan for achieving them. Determine your risk tolerance and build a diversified portfolio that aligns with your financial objectives.
#investmentgoal #stayfinanciallyhealthy
Read 7 tweets
Levels to be aware of for a bounce are:
164.97354
163.672682
163.301436
TP stands at 162.265
#GBPJPY
#trading #forex #stocks #market
#GBPJPY
Day chart, one of many fibs hitting this level, but this particular fib is very close to the high of 2023.04.13 10:00 - 166.835. Sell idea remains in play until this high is breached. Usual move down is to the 78.6 fib.
#trading #forex #market Image
#GBPJPY
8hr chart, another big fib level hit.
Disclaimer: I have deliberately not disclosed my fib plot points but the calcs are correct.
#trading #forex #market Image
Read 5 tweets
#Value proposition. I would like to disclose how we #support our #portfolio companies, because I do believe that neither #investments nor market making are enough, if there is nothing else provided. Our #vision is to be a #partner and friend for our portfolio companies and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image
Market making (#MM)- it has three main parts: Market #depth - we add more #liquidity on bid and ask side across exchanges where a token is listed on. Spread - we reduce the spread between the best bid and ask offers by adding more quotes around the middle price in the order book.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#PR and #marketing - the most powerful tool to boost projects on the #crypto market. We support projects with everything from #media to KOLs, and we can act as an outsourcing marketing agency (spoiler - we will extract our marketing department to an independent company very… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 10 tweets
My trip to a Christian Market
#PublicSchool #Report
By Shlomit Ben David, age 10

Last week my family and me visited New York, where many Christians live.

1/17
My dad asked if I wanted to visit a #Christian #ethnic #neighborhood and I said yes because I am very interested in all #different #cultures. In the Christian neighborhood there were special places for Christian people to enjoy.

2/17
I saw treyf restaurants, Christian shuls, Christaica shops, and even a special #Christian #market where they buy their special treyf food. I asked if we can go into the market and my dad said yes.

3/17
Read 17 tweets
Bitcoin price prediction. Detailed analysis of the market.

#BTC #market #Crypto #trading Image
I am attaching an interesting information. For those who do not understand. Above is a graph of 2-year US bonds and the Fed's rate. When a 2-year rate hike cycle begins to show a lower yield than the Fed rate it's meant the end of the rate hike cycle.
Since my opinion is that we are in a cyclical crisis, the following should happen:
As soon as the Fed starts to lower interest rates, then we start to see markets rise (this may not happen immediately, but it will happen fast). Image
Read 10 tweets
🧵 LESSON: #Trading with a Bias

As a trader, one of the most important skills you can develop is the ability to form and maintain a bias in your trading. Image
📍Helps you stay focused:

When you have a bias, you have a clear idea of what you want to achieve in your trading. This can help you stay focused and avoid getting distracted by market noise or short-term fluctuations.
📍 Improves decision-making:

By having a bias, you can make better trading decisions. You will be less likely to second-guess yourself or make impulsive trades, as you will have a clear view of what you want to achieve.
Read 9 tweets
[1/🧵] "#ISO20022 is bigger than you think"

You've probably heard that term a few times and wondered what it meant. 🤔

In case you are curious now:

A brief explanation of everything important.
There will be nothing complicated ahead, so don't worry. 🧵👇 Source: https://topiacoin.io/es/cbpr-iso-20022-for-dummies/
[2/24] — Outline —

🔹 Origin & Timeline
🔹 What's the big deal?
🔹 Details regarding the transformation
🔹 Migration Approaches
🔹 Relations to #Crypto (#DTI)
🔹 @Ripple & #JSON formats Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/iso-20022-compliant-cr
[3/24] — Origin & Timeline —

The #ISO 20022 standardization efforts began very early on. Indeed, you may be wondering how you missed it until this date. 😅 Source: https://www.slideserve.com/bevis/iso-20022-unifi-pow
Read 26 tweets
Today’s #JobsReport was very solid, but like is often the case in the movies, it’s very hard for the sequel (today’s report) to match such an unexpected hit (January’s revised 504,000 jobs gained).
Still, a nonfarm #payroll gain of 311,000 jobs is quite good and having 815,000 jobs created so far this year after the #economy has already created 12 million #jobs over the past two years is pretty amazing in its own right.
Further, the 3-month moving average of 351,000 jobs, after a 12-month moving average of 362,000 jobs gained per month is also pretty remarkable, particularly after the market-implied pricing of the terminal #FedFunds rate has move up 500 basis points (bps) in a year.
Read 17 tweets
1/8 Amazing vid from @EPBResearch

Debt #Crisis - Yup, It's Coming. Check it our ⬇

2/8 What we've been saying: banks and the consumer are no longer the problem. #Banks are the new utilities.
3/8 The #government and business sector are the problems. Businesses have seen record #debt and record low #tax rates help inflate margins to unsustainable levels.
Read 8 tweets
#Democracy/#FacaDemocracy: “Bolstering these #IntellectualProperty protection devices is an expanding set of inter-government deals. The construction of the global #market #system has been marked by a proliferation of over 3,200 bilateral and multilateral treaties on trade ...
... and investment, most of which have never been subject to any #democratic mandate or accountability."
"…. As one Investment #banking expert noted: 'It is a mistake to call it a trade agreement. This is really an agreement that's [sic] purpose is substantially to weaken nation-based #regulation while at the same time strengthening #IntellectualProperty protections.' ...
Read 11 tweets
1/7 This was a FASCINATING article from @FortuneMagazine

Overconfident #tech #CEOs have overpaid for ‘box tickers’ and ‘taskmasters.’ Here’s why the real ‘creators’ will survive the mass #layoffs

yahoo.com/entertainment/…
2/7 "$CRM CEO Marc #Benioff and $META CEO Mark #Zuckerberg have admitted that they hired too many employees under the assumption that the growth their #sector experienced during the pandemic would continue."
3/7 "In periods of growth, the errors made by overconfident #CEOs are often buffered by the upswing of the economic cycle. In contrast, during upswings, underconfident CEOs lose out because they stay hamstrung with #risk aversion."
Read 7 tweets
(1/8) A #bearrun occurs when supply exceeds demand & market performance falls short of recent highs.
This thread helps you delve deep into the realms of #cryptocurrency and determine the essentials required to spot a Bear Run.🧵

Read more: medium.com/zignaly/llts-1…
#ZIGNALY #LLTS Image
(2/8) A crypto bear run could be hard to foresee before it happens. It does, however, usually go along with extremely optimistic moments.
Although it has many of the same drawbacks as a bull run, a #bear run is more unpredictable having higher price #volatility.👀
#ZIGNALY #LLTS
(3/8) Investors need to have a keen eye for spotting a bear run in order to properly manage their #investment choices. These trends might seem very obvious, but identifying them beforehand is essential to cut down on investment. #risks. 🕵🏼‍♂️
#ZIGNALY #LLTS
Read 8 tweets
Here's your weekly roundup of top Market movers
#market #mutualfunds Image
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Read 7 tweets

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