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#minimodel (👇🏻) guesstimate of Covid-19 infection fatality rate is less than 0.3%, which is in the same ballpark as IFR of flu (0.1%, also an estimate).
In this THREAD, I will explain how this fact has been misconstrued/misused to mean Covid-19 pandemic is a nothingburger.
In this THREAD, I will explain how this fact has been misconstrued/misused to mean Covid-19 pandemic is a nothingburger.
I'm thinking here of crowd jumping up+down "see! the IFR is same as flu!!!".
Covid-19 IFR is indeed around that of flu. I don't say "low", since everything relative. IFRs are in the same ballpark.
But C-19 will kill far more people in the same time period than flu.
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Covid-19 IFR is indeed around that of flu. I don't say "low", since everything relative. IFRs are in the same ballpark.
But C-19 will kill far more people in the same time period than flu.
continues
We already see Covid-19 has killed 225,000 in USA, far more than flu. Comparing IFRs is not the right move here (and has never been — see the breakdown of the #minimodel).
Despite similar IFRs, C-19 will kill far more people than flu, because it will infect far more.
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Despite similar IFRs, C-19 will kill far more people than flu, because it will infect far more.
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Latest:
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 5,746,272 cases; 177,424 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.31%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 700,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 5,746,272 cases; 177,424 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.31%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 700,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
A decline in the #MiniModel, the first one in a few days.
700,000 deaths in the United States before it's all over.
This has no time envelope. It's for the whole pandemic, not calendar year 2020, or etc.
decomposing the minimodel:
700,000 deaths in the United States before it's all over.
This has no time envelope. It's for the whole pandemic, not calendar year 2020, or etc.
decomposing the minimodel:
And here is the latest #Minimodel time series graph.
When the data and the minimodel lines intersect for the first time, that is a heuristic for when the pandemic phase is over, and the post-pandemic phase begins. I'll have more to say about this as it gets closer.
When the data and the minimodel lines intersect for the first time, that is a heuristic for when the pandemic phase is over, and the post-pandemic phase begins. I'll have more to say about this as it gets closer.
Latest:
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 5,566,632 cases; 173,128 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.31%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 710,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 5,566,632 cases; 173,128 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.31%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 710,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
The #MiniModel is back! Did you miss it?
Dropped by 20,000 deaths in the week I was away.
Evergreen reminder, this has no time envelope. It's not for calendar year 2020, etc., etc.
decomposing the minimodel:
Dropped by 20,000 deaths in the week I was away.
Evergreen reminder, this has no time envelope. It's not for calendar year 2020, etc., etc.
decomposing the minimodel:
Here is the latest #MiniModel time series graph:
Latest:
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 4,918,420 cases; 160,290 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.33%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 740,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 4,918,420 cases; 160,290 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.33%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 740,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
The #MiniModel declines again, 740,000 deaths.
Today the USA surpassed 160k deaths, and is nearing its 5 millionth confirmed case.
More info on the minimodel, in this thread:
Today the USA surpassed 160k deaths, and is nearing its 5 millionth confirmed case.
More info on the minimodel, in this thread:
#MiniModel holding steady, 740,000 deaths.
As I have noted on many occasions, this projection does not have a time envelope. It's not for calendar year 2020. It's for the pandemic's full extent.
Want more info? This thread on decomposing the minimodel:
As I have noted on many occasions, this projection does not have a time envelope. It's not for calendar year 2020. It's for the pandemic's full extent.
Want more info? This thread on decomposing the minimodel:
Latest:
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 4,862,174 cases; 158,929 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.33%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 750,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
*VERY* crude math:
USA: 4,862,174 cases; 158,929 deaths
Figure 10× under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases
Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.33%
~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n
➡️ 750,000 deaths
Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
Minimodel holding steady at ¾ of a million deaths.
Today we saw lower numbers of both cases and deaths.
Information on decomposing the #minimodel, see this thread:
Today we saw lower numbers of both cases and deaths.
Information on decomposing the #minimodel, see this thread:
A while back, it wasn't uncommon to see lower numbers on Mondays, especially deaths.
A little bit less the case, of late.
Tuesday numbers will be interesting. 👀
A little bit less the case, of late.
Tuesday numbers will be interesting. 👀
