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I bet at least *some* of you have checked TropicalTidbits.com or windy.com and seen the 0Z Euro -- a Cat 3 hurricane (#FIONA) making landfall near St Margarets Bay next Sat AM.
Before you say "we're doomed" let me explain a bit. #NSwx #NBwx #PEwx #NLwx (1/x) Image
This is only ONE of several possible solutions. The other two major global models (GFS and CMC) show solutions that are either weaker (CMC) or much farther east (GFS).
(2/x) GFS model shows a hurricane...CMC shows a weaker post-tro...
Here are the ensembles (multiple runs of the same model with slightly perturbed initial conditions) for #FIONA.
As you can see, there's still considerable uncertainty in the track, however, the GFS is a bit farther east than the Euro.
Why? (3/x) GFS ensembles show Fiona pa...Euro ensembles are a bit fa...
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