Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NJ03

Most recents (24)

NEW from me @TheSpectator:

With all the attention on #NY03's @Santos4Congress, you'd think he's the only politician to have lied his way into office

Read this thread, you're about to learn a lot about Dems from the state house to the White House

thespectator.com/topic/democrat…

(1/xx)
Everywhere liberal journalists look, they see @Santos4Congress. They see him in fellow freshman Republicans Anna Paulina Luna and Andy Ogles, both of whom have recently been accused of fabricating details about the past in newspaper hit pieces.

thespectator.com/topic/democrat…

(2/xx)
With the coverage of @Santos4Congress's brief tenure, you’d be forgiven if you thought the new House GOP majority was filled with liars and résumé embellishers — that’s clearly the big picture that Dems and their allies in the press paint.

thespectator.com/topic/democrat…

(3/xx)
Read 71 tweets
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.

As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.

Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!

However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
Read 7 tweets
BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split.
*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect)
Meaningful partisan shifts in this new map:

#NJ03 Kim (D) - Trump +0.2 to Biden +14
#NJ05 Gottheimer (D) - Biden +5 to Biden +12
#NJ07 Malinowski (D) - Biden +10 to Biden +4
#NJ11 Sherrill (D) - Biden +7 to Biden +17
Read 4 tweets
NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04.
However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk.
Dems would probably be lucky to get away w/ a 10D-2R incumbent protection map. Such a plan (right) would shore up Reps. Andy Kim (#NJ03), Josh Gottheimer (#NJ05), Tom Malinowski (#NJ07), and Mikie Sherrill (#NJ11) by giving them all double-digit Biden seats.
Read 8 tweets
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.

For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):

#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne

Trump/D districts (7/8?):

#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
Read 3 tweets
Happy Thanksgiving week!

My new Against the Grain column: “The Biggest Political Turkeys of 2020”

“The most infamous political flops of the year—from not-ready-for-prime-time candidates to campaign tactics that didn’t stand the test of time.”

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
1) Martha McSally, who “was one of the few frontline Republican Senate candidates to run behind President Trump; the president lost the state by a 0.3-percent margin, while she trailed Kelly by 2.4 percent.”

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
2) Amy McGrath, the #KYSEN challenger who raised $88M in her race against McConnell only to see him win the second-highest vote share in his Senate career

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
Read 8 tweets
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:

#AZ01
#GA06
#GA07
#MN02
#NE02
#NH01
#NJ05
#NJ11
#PA17
#TX24
#VA02
#VA07

And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

#FL26
#TX23
Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
Read 4 tweets
‼️PROGRESSIVES‼️

We must remember down-ballot candidates.

This is a list of progressive/leftist congressional candidates endorsed by at least one of these groups:

@BrandNew535
@BoldProgressive
@justicedems
@pdamerica
@RoseCaucus

#UniteLeft
#Progress2020
Please remember:

⚠️STATE CANDIDATE PRIMARIES MAY BE ON DIFFERENT DATES THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY⚠️

Double check your registration at least 1 MONTH 🗓 before any election you plant to vote in.

Also, endorsements are an ongoing process
Some races have 2 different candidates endorsed by different groups, so they’re both listed.

Legend:
📖➡️ platform/issues link
💵➡️ donation link

If the pinned tweet is related to their campaign, I included it.

Now, onto the (long) list.
Read 83 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out
HERE THEY ARE

PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.

Tom O’Halleran #AZ01

@RepOHalleran

@TomOHalleran

(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06

@RepLucyMcBath

@LucyMcBath

(202) 225-4501
Read 11 tweets
#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯

Men & Women! 💃🕺

October 17th @ 10 AM

US Capitol AND Locations across the country!

TrumpMarch.com

#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
🚨🚨🚨

📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
Read 5 tweets
Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
Read 29 tweets
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!

#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Read 46 tweets
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Read 15 tweets
💯 days ago this week, a newly elected class of diverse and energetic Democrats was sworn into the U.S. House, unified by a commitment to getting real results for their constituents back home. #100DaysForThePeople
cards.twitter.com/cards/8qk3a/76…
In this short period of time, House Democrats have been busy making good on their campaign promises to tackle the rising cost of premiums and prescription drugs, and to protect the millions of Americans with pre-existing conditions.

Here’s a recap 👇
In #MI08, Rep. @ElissaSlotkin is working hard to make health care more affordable and to protect people with pre-existing conditions.
fox2detroit.com/news/local-new…
Read 12 tweets
#116th New Congress convenes soon!
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! 🌊🌊🌊 #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
⤵️THREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk⤵️
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
Arizona #AZ02 #116thCongress
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick
kirkpatrickforcongress.com/issues/
@Ann_Kirkpatrick

"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."

THREAD
Arizona #AZ09 #AZ9 #116thCongress
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney
stantonforarizona.com/issues
@gregstantonaz
Instagram.com/gregstantonaz
facebook.com/gregstantonaz

THREAD
Read 67 tweets
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
Read 82 tweets
📣NEW JERSEY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CONTENDERS THREAD📣

Few states give us a greater % of potential red-to-blue flips then The Garden State.

There are currently 5 GOP-held House seats in NJ, AND 100% OF THEM ARE FLIPPABLE.

If we take all 5, we can take the House!

Spread the word!
In #NJ02 Democrat Jeff Van Drew (@VanDrewForNJ) is running to FLIP this open-GOP seat. His opponent is the aptly named, and openly bigoted, Seth Grossman (seriously…Google him). Jeff is a dentist, a state senator, and a small business owner who will fight for ALL New Jerseyans.
In #NJ03 Democrat Andy Kim (@AndyKimNJ) is running to FLIP this seat held by Tom MacArthur. Andy served in the Obama Administration on counter-terrorism and national security matters, and will actually work to protect his constituents’ healthcare, unlike Rep. MacArthur.
Read 7 tweets
THREAD

What do an FBI arrest, a special prosecutor, insider trading, tax breaks spent on yachts, and not disclosing shady businesses all have in common?

It all stinks of Republican corruption.

Let's take a look 👀
Now that #NY27 GOP Rep. Chris Collins was arrested and indicted on insider trading, his seat in Congress is in play!

#TakeItBack
cnbc.com/2018/08/08/chr…
It’s not just Chris Collins. The scandal runs through Texas ...

#TX07 GOP Rep. John Culberson
#TX11 GOP Rep. Mike Conaway
#TakeItBack
texastribune.org/2018/08/08/tex…
Read 13 tweets
The GOP's silence about ripping children from their parents is deafening.

Guess who *is* stating a clear moral position on this...Your 2018 Democratic swing district nominees. I've threaded their positions below. Please RT and follow all. #FlipEverything. Save America's soul.
Katie Porter - #CA45 @katieporteroc
Kathleen Williams - #MTAL @WilliamsForMT
Read 40 tweets
Well done, #NewJersey!
Here are your #PrimaryElection Democratic Candidate Winners
Onward to #Midterms2018!
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
THREAD
Also Info & links for Voter Registration, Absentee, #VoterID, Poll Worker
Democratic Candidate New Jersey #NJ01
Dem Incumbent Donald Norcross
norcross.house.gov
@DonaldNorcross

#Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
Register by October 16th
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5

THREAD
Democratic Candidate New Jersey #NJ02

Jeff Van Drew, State SenFreeholder
vandrewforcongress.com
@VanDrewForNJ

vs Seth Grossman

#Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
Register by October 16th
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5

THREAD
Read 18 tweets
Hey #NewJersey! You get to vote in Primary Election on JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 15 here: nj.gov/state/election…
And here’s a THREAD of All your Democratic Candidates with photos & website links.
#NJ01 #NJ02 #NJ03 #NJ04 #NJ05 #NJ06 #NJ07 #NJ08 #NJ09 #NJ10 #NJ11 #NJ12
VOTER REGISTRATION for NEW JERSEY
Info here: nj.gov/state/election…
Includes links to Applications for each County.
PRIMARY ELECTION JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 15th
County Commissioner of Registration or Superintendent of Elections. Addresses here: nj.gov/state/election…
VOTE BY MAIL (Absentee Ballot) New Jersey
Request by Jun 4, 2018
Absentee Ballot Deadline: Jun 5, 2018
Find Applications for each County here: nj.gov/state/election…
And return to County Clerk. Addresses here: nj.gov/state/election…
Military Overseas? nj.gov/state/election…
Read 18 tweets

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