Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NJ05
Most recents (17)
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split.
*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect)
NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04.
However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk.
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
‼️PROGRESSIVES‼️
We must remember down-ballot candidates.
This is a list of progressive/leftist congressional candidates endorsed by at least one of these groups:
@BrandNew535
@BoldProgressive
@justicedems
@pdamerica
@RoseCaucus
#UniteLeft
#Progress2020
We must remember down-ballot candidates.
This is a list of progressive/leftist congressional candidates endorsed by at least one of these groups:
@BrandNew535
@BoldProgressive
@justicedems
@pdamerica
@RoseCaucus
#UniteLeft
#Progress2020
Please remember:
⚠️STATE CANDIDATE PRIMARIES MAY BE ON DIFFERENT DATES THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY⚠️
Double check your registration at least 1 MONTH 🗓 before any election you plant to vote in.
Also, endorsements are an ongoing process
⚠️STATE CANDIDATE PRIMARIES MAY BE ON DIFFERENT DATES THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY⚠️
Double check your registration at least 1 MONTH 🗓 before any election you plant to vote in.
Also, endorsements are an ongoing process
Some races have 2 different candidates endorsed by different groups, so they’re both listed.
Legend:
📖➡️ platform/issues link
💵➡️ donation link
If the pinned tweet is related to their campaign, I included it.
Now, onto the (long) list.
Legend:
📖➡️ platform/issues link
💵➡️ donation link
If the pinned tweet is related to their campaign, I included it.
Now, onto the (long) list.
Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today
From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:
You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.
Voting for censure is your only way out
From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:
You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.
Voting for censure is your only way out
HERE THEY ARE
PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.
Tom O’Halleran #AZ01
@RepOHalleran
@TomOHalleran
(202) 225-3361
Lucy McBath #GA06
@RepLucyMcBath
@LucyMcBath
(202) 225-4501
PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.
Tom O’Halleran #AZ01
@RepOHalleran
@TomOHalleran
(202) 225-3361
Lucy McBath #GA06
@RepLucyMcBath
@LucyMcBath
(202) 225-4501
#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯
Men & Women! 💃🕺
October 17th @ 10 AM
US Capitol AND Locations across the country!
TrumpMarch.com
#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
Men & Women! 💃🕺
October 17th @ 10 AM
US Capitol AND Locations across the country!
TrumpMarch.com
#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
🚨🚨🚨
📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
.#ComplicitCongress THREAD:
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.
#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy
#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala
A minority of Dem House Reps DON’T support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala
Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!
#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!
#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.
“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Well done, #NewJersey!
Here are your #PrimaryElection Democratic Candidate Winners
Onward to #Midterms2018!
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
THREAD
Also Info & links for Voter Registration, Absentee, #VoterID, Poll Worker
Here are your #PrimaryElection Democratic Candidate Winners
Onward to #Midterms2018!
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
THREAD
Also Info & links for Voter Registration, Absentee, #VoterID, Poll Worker
Democratic Candidate New Jersey #NJ01
Dem Incumbent Donald Norcross
norcross.house.gov
@DonaldNorcross
#Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
Register by October 16th
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
THREAD
Dem Incumbent Donald Norcross
norcross.house.gov
@DonaldNorcross
#Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
Register by October 16th
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
THREAD
Democratic Candidate New Jersey #NJ02
Jeff Van Drew, State SenFreeholder
vandrewforcongress.com
@VanDrewForNJ
vs Seth Grossman
#Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
Register by October 16th
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
THREAD
Jeff Van Drew, State SenFreeholder
vandrewforcongress.com
@VanDrewForNJ
vs Seth Grossman
#Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018 #VoteBlue
Register by October 16th
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
THREAD
Hey #NewJersey! You get to vote in Primary Election on JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 15 here: nj.gov/state/election…
And here’s a THREAD of All your Democratic Candidates with photos & website links.
#NJ01 #NJ02 #NJ03 #NJ04 #NJ05 #NJ06 #NJ07 #NJ08 #NJ09 #NJ10 #NJ11 #NJ12
Register by May 15 here: nj.gov/state/election…
And here’s a THREAD of All your Democratic Candidates with photos & website links.
#NJ01 #NJ02 #NJ03 #NJ04 #NJ05 #NJ06 #NJ07 #NJ08 #NJ09 #NJ10 #NJ11 #NJ12
VOTER REGISTRATION for NEW JERSEY
Info here: nj.gov/state/election…
Includes links to Applications for each County.
PRIMARY ELECTION JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 15th
County Commissioner of Registration or Superintendent of Elections. Addresses here: nj.gov/state/election…
Info here: nj.gov/state/election…
Includes links to Applications for each County.
PRIMARY ELECTION JUNE 5, 2018
Register by May 15th
County Commissioner of Registration or Superintendent of Elections. Addresses here: nj.gov/state/election…
VOTE BY MAIL (Absentee Ballot) New Jersey
Request by Jun 4, 2018
Absentee Ballot Deadline: Jun 5, 2018
Find Applications for each County here: nj.gov/state/election…
And return to County Clerk. Addresses here: nj.gov/state/election…
Military Overseas? nj.gov/state/election…
Request by Jun 4, 2018
Absentee Ballot Deadline: Jun 5, 2018
Find Applications for each County here: nj.gov/state/election…
And return to County Clerk. Addresses here: nj.gov/state/election…
Military Overseas? nj.gov/state/election…
