Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NV03

Most recents (24)

Nevada election results update: Clark County has published an update, with about 12.3k ballots tabulated and reported in this batch.

I’ll have some updated numbers for the top-of-ticket races posted here soon.
In a new batch of 12.3k mail votes counted in Clark County, here are the #nvsen results:
- Cortez Masto received 7.5k votes (60.7 percent)
- Laxalt received 4.2k votes (34.1 percent)

This drops Laxalt’s statewide lead from nearly 17k to less than 14k, closer to 13.5k.
In that batch of 12.3k mail votes counted in Clark County, here are the #nvgov results:
- Sisolak received 7.2k votes (58 percent)
- Lombardo received 4.4k votes (35 percent)

This drops Lombardo’s statewide lead from 35.4k to 32.6k.
Read 4 tweets
GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Read 3 tweets
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022 Image
Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.
In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House. Image
Read 22 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220
Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544
Read 6 tweets
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67. ImageImageImage
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Today's DCCC buys (1/2)

#CA22 $1,142,098
#NV03 $1,094,710
#ME02 $932,408
#CA49 $880,015
#PA08 $739,586
#IL17 $553,515
#OH13 $505,750
#CT05 $486,503
#PA17 $368,367
#NV04 $333,393
#NE02 $201,976
#NY17 $112,517
#VA07 $108,368
#TX28 $93,997
#NH01 $90,100
#OH01 $79,700
#NY04 $71,000
Read 4 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653
Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852
Read 5 tweets
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65. ImageImage
Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000
Read 6 tweets
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
Today's HMP buys (1/3)

#NV01 $1,409,339
#NV04 $1,085,708
#NV03 $1,063,115
#CA22 $1,058,595
#NH01 $1,037,920
#NY19 $961,780
#TX28 $929,827
#OH13 $870,198
#MN02 $739,191
#WA08 $738,334
#IN01 $686,882
#KS03 $646,562
#CO08 $590,088
#OR06 $587,541
#NY22 $491,388
#TX34 $460,863
Today's HMP buys (2/3)

#OH01 $459,646
#CA49 $436,650
#RI02 $409,455
#PA17 $379,011
#NC01 $345,232
#NE02 $312,778
#GA02 $210,676
#OH09 $205,321
#NJ07 $171,807
#IA03 $164,363
#IL13 $158,950
#CA13 $123,963
#MI08 $116,751
#VA07 $105,000
#NY03 $91,071
#AZ04 $86,070
#MI07 $58,083
Read 4 tweets
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs. ImageImage
Tonight's DCCC buys (1/2)

#PA07 $1,428,543
#ME02 $1,069,016
#CA13 $996,949
#PA17 $873,065
#VA07 $792,735
#CA49 $691,181
#NC13 $690,254
#MN02 $669,933
#TX34 $654,685
#IL17 $629,957
#AZ02 $598,373
#MI07 $587,659
#OR06 $564,579
#NM02 $451,682
#CT05 $418,141
#PA08 $408,710
Tonight's DCCC buys (2/2)

#OH13 $300,000
#NV03 $254,683
#NY18 $128,125
#NV04 $81,141
#NV01 $79,448
#TX28 $73,500
#OH01 $56,260
#OH09 $34,872
#AZ04 $32,375
Read 4 tweets
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211
Read 5 tweets
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.

HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
Today's HMP buys (1/2)

#NV01 $1,121,509
#CA22 $995,205
#CA49 $896,348
#NV03 $859,247
#NV04 $809,496
#IN01 $683,122
#NH01 $538,117
#CT05 $529,755
#PA17 $462,496
#NC01 $348,908
#MI03 $317,726
#NE02 $219,314
#IL13 $176,899
#NJ07 $171,807
#OH09 $126,225
#CA13 $123,443
#MI08 $86,833
Today's HMP buys (2/2)

#AZ04 $49,500
#IL17 $49,100
#PA08 $45,854
#NY03 $45,221
#VA07 $45,000
#CO07 $44,534
#RI02 $43,500
#MN02 $40,000
#WA08 $39,318
#OH13 $39,000
#NY22 $38,750
#MI07 $31,000
#VA02 $27,846
#NY19 $23,333
#PA07 $18,333
#ME02 $16,732
#OR06 $15,000
Read 4 tweets
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155
Read 6 tweets
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC. ImageImage
Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706
Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999
Read 6 tweets
Since former President Donald Trump announced last night that the FBI raided his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, Republican candidates and elected officials, including several in Nevada, have flooded social media to condemn the FBI and DOJ. 👇
Republican #nvsen candidate @AdamLaxalt described the raid as an "example of the growing weaponization of our federal agencies by the Left."

The Nevada Freedom Caucus and GOP Assemblyman Jim Wheeler put out a statement, saying the FBI's actions "reek of vengeance and political opportunism."

Read 8 tweets
🧵𝑻𝑯𝑹𝑬𝑨𝑫: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.

Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least 28 @NRCC-endorsed GOP challengers supported overturning #RoeVWade.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support 𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠).
Read 16 tweets
The Nevada legislature unveiled a proposed congressional map today. Up and analyzed on @FiveThirtyEight: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-… Image
@FiveThirtyEight This map redistributes the Dem vote currently in #NV01 to shore up #NV03 and #NV04. But another way of looking at it is that NV went from 1 safe 🔵 seat to 0.

#NV01: D+22 -> D+4
#NV03: R+5 -> D+2
#NV04 R+1 -> D+5

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
This is kinda of the Dem version of Iowa's map. In neutral-to-blue environments, it should sustain a 3 🔵, 1 🔴 delegation. But in a red environment, it could easily be 4 🔴, 0 🔵. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Democrats’ Infrastructure Deal will provide a massive fix for our nation’s roads, bridges, ports, and so much more.

These are real, substantial wins for our communities — so here’s a snapshot on how a few will benefit: 🧵
𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗨𝗧: Did you know 1 in 10 Connecticut households currently do not have internet?

Rep. @JahanaHayesCT helped deliver Dems’ Infrastructure deal to fix this. #CT05
courant.com/politics/hc-po…
𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗛𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦𝗛𝗜𝗥𝗘: Rep. @ChrisPappasNH helped secure $2,000,000,000 for NH to fix the 250 bridges and nearly 700 miles of highway in poor condition, providing safer commutes for NH communities. #NH01
thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/…
Read 14 tweets
NEVADA: Dems hold a 3D-1R lead in House seats and control redistricting here for the first time ever. But they'll need to shore up #NV03 and #NV04 in the Las Vegas suburbs, both of which they held by <5 pts in 2020.
The easiest way to do that? Shift heavily GOP parts of Henderson & Centennial Hills into the downtown Las Vegas #NV01 (Biden +25, left) - which would make both #NV03 and #NV04 about 5 pts bluer (right) while #NV01 would remain safe.
The only complication? Hispanic state legislators might object to reducing the Latino % in #NV01, where former state Sen. Yvanna Cancela (D) is expected to run when Rep. Dina Titus (D) decides to leave.

In the hypothetical above (right), #NV01's Latino share would remain >40%.
Read 4 tweets
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:

#AZ01
#GA06
#GA07
#MN02
#NE02
#NH01
#NJ05
#NJ11
#PA17
#TX24
#VA02
#VA07

And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

#FL26
#TX23
Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
Read 4 tweets
Looks like President Trump will be attending church tomorrow morning at the International Church of Las Vegas (he also visited the church in Oct. 2016) before flying to a fundraiser in Newport Beach and then back to Nevada for a rally in Carson City in the evening.
For those who don't remember, pastors of this church prophesied over Trump at that Oct. 2016 service.
Some convo going on in the comments of this ICLV live stream that Google Translate tells me is Bengali...?
Read 18 tweets
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:

—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
Read 40 tweets
[THREAD]

Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.

Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%

We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts

Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All

His primary Election Day is September 1st

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01

Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.

His primary Election Day is September 1st.

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
Read 98 tweets
When you are voting for the Republican nominee for Nevada's 3rd Congressional District, remember that I am the candidate who:

Has a plan to reopen our state and country.🇺🇸
Has a plan to bring new jobs to Nevada. 💼
Will hold China accountable. 🇨🇳 (1/3)
danrodimer.com
Will help President @realDonaldTrump build the wall & strengthen immigration. 🏗️
Will fight for your 2nd Amendment gun rights.🔫
Will fight to protect the lives of unborn children. 👼
Has a plan to lower the price of prescription drugs. 💊 (2/3)
danrodimer.com
Understands that new taxes hurt American families. 👨‍👩‍👦
Will always stand with our armed forces & our veterans. 🗽(3/3) #NV03
danrodimer.com
Read 3 tweets

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