Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NY27
Most recents (20)
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen… 
New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.
They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...
1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
If Haaland is confirmed, it would trigger a special election in #NM01, which voted for Biden by 23 points, per @DKElections.
In 15 U.S. House special elections from 2017 to 2020, the maximum deviation from a district's presidential results was 21 points.
In 15 U.S. House special elections from 2017 to 2020, the maximum deviation from a district's presidential results was 21 points.
Democrats would start out as strong favorites to keep Haaland's #NM01 district (Biden +23).
There are several examples of Democrats overperforming by close to that margin in special elections - #KS04 (+21), #PA18 (+20), #NY27 (+19).
But the GOP would have to do even better.
There are several examples of Democrats overperforming by close to that margin in special elections - #KS04 (+21), #PA18 (+20), #NY27 (+19).
But the GOP would have to do even better.
For Republicans to pull off a massive upset in a #NM01 special election, they'd probably need:
- A strongly pro-Republican political environment
- Latino turnout collapses in a district where they are ~43% of eligible voters
- Latinos that do show up shift towards Republicans
- A strongly pro-Republican political environment
- Latino turnout collapses in a district where they are ~43% of eligible voters
- Latinos that do show up shift towards Republicans
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
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Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
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[THREAD]
Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.
Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%
We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.
Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%
We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts
Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All
His primary Election Day is September 1st
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: edmarkey.com
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts
Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All
His primary Election Day is September 1st
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01
Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.
His primary Election Day is September 1st.
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
District: #MA01
Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.
His primary Election Day is September 1st.
#ProgressiveFlood
For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
.@RepDonBacon (R-#NE02): "This (USPS) Bill was not perfect, but the critical role the postal service plays in our country and the fact the postal system will become insolvent next year led me to vote in support." bacon.house.gov/news/documents…
.@RepBost (R-#IL12): "While Congress approved additional funding today with my support, I still share President Trump’s concerns over the process in place for counting an unprecedented number of votes by mail." bost.house.gov/media-center/p…
Rep. @VernBuchanan (R-#FL16): "Millions of Americans, especially seniors, depend on a healthy and functioning Postal Service. I voted for the bill today to make sure the Postal Service has the resources to deliver the mail."
Imagine a hypothetical swing state where 42% of the vote is cast by mail and there's an extreme partisan gap between VBM (80% Biden) and in-person (70% Trump).
Here's what an 8% VBM rejection rate could do (graphic credit @alflinn): nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Here's what an 8% VBM rejection rate could do (graphic credit @alflinn): nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Now a few caveats:
1) I don't think the VBM/E-Day partisan gap will be *quite* this wide, though #NY27 came close
2) In-person early vote will mute this effect in many states
3) Dems will inevitably sue to validate more VBMs
But you can see how this starts becoming meaningful.
1) I don't think the VBM/E-Day partisan gap will be *quite* this wide, though #NY27 came close
2) In-person early vote will mute this effect in many states
3) Dems will inevitably sue to validate more VBMs
But you can see how this starts becoming meaningful.
Fact: in the past decade alone, 7 Electoral College contests, 12 Senate races and 71 House races have been decided by <2%.
So no matter the size of the "blue wave" in Nov., this is a moderately big deal.
So no matter the size of the "blue wave" in Nov., this is a moderately big deal.
The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn’t fraud that hurts the GOP.
It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/styl…
It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/styl…
This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate.
Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
Take #NY27's June special election, for example. The Republican, Chris Jacobs (R), led 70%-28% in the Election Day count.
Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.
Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.
Need proof we’re headed for a massive divide between Election Day results & absentees?
Look no further than last month’s special in #NY27 (a seat Trump won by 25%), where Chris Jacobs (R) led 70%-28% on election night but now leads just 53%-45% w/ most absentees counted.
Look no further than last month’s special in #NY27 (a seat Trump won by 25%), where Chris Jacobs (R) led 70%-28% on election night but now leads just 53%-45% w/ most absentees counted.
P.s. This is a pretty dismal special election showing for Rs. Trump carried #NY27 by 25% but Jacobs (R)’s 8% lead over McMurray (D) could narrow even further to ~6% when Niagara Co. finishes its absentee count.
The bigger concern here: massive potential for confusion on Election Night & doubts in the weeks following considering most of the voting public - and even much of the media - has little understanding of how a vote count actually works.
Record number of GOPs leaving Congress!
(27 now & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
Updated (again, because more keep leaving) DECEMBER
(27 now & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
Updated (again, because more keep leaving) DECEMBER
GOP @BradleyByrne is leaving Alabama District 1
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
Martha Roby is leaving!
Democratic Candidates Alabama District 2
#AL2
Phyllis Harvey-Hall
Community Activist and Retired Educator
harveyhall2congress.com
Nathan Mathis
Farmer & former State Rep
@olenate2020
#Congress2020
THREAD
Democratic Candidates Alabama District 2
#AL2
Phyllis Harvey-Hall
Community Activist and Retired Educator
harveyhall2congress.com
Nathan Mathis
Farmer & former State Rep
@olenate2020
#Congress2020
THREAD
Record number of GOPs leaving Congress!
(25 & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
#VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlueToEndThisNightmare
(25 & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats
Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!
#Congress2020
#VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlueToEndThisNightmare
Re-election rate among House incumbents has been up to 98% in modern history & it's rarely dipped below 90%.
#NoSafeSeats #Congress2020
#AL1 #AL2 #CA8 #CA50 #FL3 #FL19 #GA2 #GA7 #GA14 #IL15 #IN5 #KS1 #MI10 #MT #NC2 #NY2 #NY27 #OR2 #TX11 #TX13 #TX17 #TX17 #TX22 #TX23 #TX24 #UT1
#NoSafeSeats #Congress2020
#AL1 #AL2 #CA8 #CA50 #FL3 #FL19 #GA2 #GA7 #GA14 #IL15 #IN5 #KS1 #MI10 #MT #NC2 #NY2 #NY27 #OR2 #TX11 #TX13 #TX17 #TX17 #TX22 #TX23 #TX24 #UT1
GOP @BradleyByrne is leaving Alabama District 1
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica
THREAD
New York #NY #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Websites, Twitter
& Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
#VoteBlueNY
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Websites, Twitter
& Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
#VoteBlueNY
Democratic Candidate for Governor of New York
Andrew Cuomo
andrewcuomo.com
@andrewcuomo
vs GOP Marc Molinaro
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Andrew Cuomo
andrewcuomo.com
@andrewcuomo
vs GOP Marc Molinaro
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Democratic Candidate for Lt Governor of New York
Kathy Hochul
kathyhochul.com
@KathyHochul
vs GOP Julie Killian
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Kathy Hochul
kathyhochul.com
@KathyHochul
vs GOP Julie Killian
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
THREAD
What do an FBI arrest, a special prosecutor, insider trading, tax breaks spent on yachts, and not disclosing shady businesses all have in common?
It all stinks of Republican corruption.
Let's take a look 👀
What do an FBI arrest, a special prosecutor, insider trading, tax breaks spent on yachts, and not disclosing shady businesses all have in common?
It all stinks of Republican corruption.
Let's take a look 👀
Now that #NY27 GOP Rep. Chris Collins was arrested and indicted on insider trading, his seat in Congress is in play!
#TakeItBack
cnbc.com/2018/08/08/chr…
#TakeItBack
cnbc.com/2018/08/08/chr…
It’s not just Chris Collins. The scandal runs through Texas ...
#TX07 GOP Rep. John Culberson
#TX11 GOP Rep. Mike Conaway
#TakeItBack
texastribune.org/2018/08/08/tex…
#TX07 GOP Rep. John Culberson
#TX11 GOP Rep. Mike Conaway
#TakeItBack
texastribune.org/2018/08/08/tex…
Here's the insider trading indictment against Chris Collins (NY-24), Trump's first supporter in Congress. He's a goner. documentcloud.org/documents/4639…
Collins and a bunch of people in his circle were big investors in an Australian biotech company. They all dumped stock after he tipped them off to a bad clinical trial result.
Collins's son and his son's father-in-law were both indicted along with him. His daughter-in-law and a bunch of others are listed as co-conspirators. They've got texts and cooperating witnesses.
New York #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Website & Twitter Links.
Plus Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Website & Twitter Links.
Plus Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
Hey #NewYork
VOTE on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
THREAD below of All Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links ( Registration, Absentee & Poll Worker
But, ALSO,
VOTE on SEPTEMBER 13 in #PrimaryElections for State & Local Offices
#VoteBlue
VOTE on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
THREAD below of All Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links ( Registration, Absentee & Poll Worker
But, ALSO,
VOTE on SEPTEMBER 13 in #PrimaryElections for State & Local Offices
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
THREAD
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
THREAD
Hey #NewYork #NY
You need to REGISTER by FRIDAY, JUNE 1st!
to VOTE in your JUNE 26th #PrimaryElection
THREAD below of ALL Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links
(including Voter Registration, Absentee & being a Poll Worker)
You need to REGISTER by FRIDAY, JUNE 1st!
to VOTE in your JUNE 26th #PrimaryElection
THREAD below of ALL Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links
(including Voter Registration, Absentee & being a Poll Worker)
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
ABSENTEE VOTING in #NewYork
#Absentee #NY
Deadline to apply for JUNE 26, 2018 #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 25
Online Fillable Form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send or Deliver to elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Military? elections.ny.gov/VotingMilitary…
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue
THREAD
#Absentee #NY
Deadline to apply for JUNE 26, 2018 #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 25
Online Fillable Form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send or Deliver to elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Military? elections.ny.gov/VotingMilitary…
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue
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