Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NY27

Most recents (19)

New York is poised to lose a seat. But if Dems end up drawing the map, it could be their biggest weapon of the redistricting cycle.

They could merge Stefanik/Tenney (if Tenney's lead holds in #NY22) and severely threaten other Rs, converting a 19D-8R map into 23D-3R (below).
Upstate: under the scenario (above) I've heard floated...

1. #NY27 Jacobs (R) would be axed
2. A safe new Syracuse/Utica #NY22 for Anthony Brindisi (D)
3. A new Ithaca/Kingston district, #NY12, for state Sen. Michelle Hinchey (D)
4. All current Dem incumbents get Biden +10 seats
One other feature of this play for Upstate: Dems would put Rep. John Katko (R)'s home in Camillus in a Syracuse-less #NY24 (purple), but keep it winnable for themselves in case Katko retires/loses a primary.
Read 8 tweets
If Haaland is confirmed, it would trigger a special election in #NM01, which voted for Biden by 23 points, per @DKElections.

In 15 U.S. House special elections from 2017 to 2020, the maximum deviation from a district's presidential results was 21 points.

Image
Democrats would start out as strong favorites to keep Haaland's #NM01 district (Biden +23).

There are several examples of Democrats overperforming by close to that margin in special elections - #KS04 (+21), #PA18 (+20), #NY27 (+19).

But the GOP would have to do even better.
For Republicans to pull off a massive upset in a #NM01 special election, they'd probably need:

- A strongly pro-Republican political environment
- Latino turnout collapses in a district where they are ~43% of eligible voters
- Latinos that do show up shift towards Republicans
Read 3 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Links (& Postcards) to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

& follow @NDLB2020 Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
[THREAD]

Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.

Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%

We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts

Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All

His primary Election Day is September 1st

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01

Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.

His primary Election Day is September 1st.

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
Read 98 tweets
.@RepDonBacon (R-#NE02): "This (USPS) Bill was not perfect, but the critical role the postal service plays in our country and the fact the postal system will become insolvent next year led me to vote in support." bacon.house.gov/news/documents…
.@RepBost (R-#IL12): "While Congress approved additional funding today with my support, I still share President Trump’s concerns over the process in place for counting an unprecedented number of votes by mail." bost.house.gov/media-center/p…
Rep. @VernBuchanan (R-#FL16): "Millions of Americans, especially seniors, depend on a healthy and functioning Postal Service. I voted for the bill today to make sure the Postal Service has the resources to deliver the mail."
Read 17 tweets
Imagine a hypothetical swing state where 42% of the vote is cast by mail and there's an extreme partisan gap between VBM (80% Biden) and in-person (70% Trump).

Here's what an 8% VBM rejection rate could do (graphic credit @alflinn): nbcnews.com/politics/2020-… Image
Now a few caveats:

1) I don't think the VBM/E-Day partisan gap will be *quite* this wide, though #NY27 came close
2) In-person early vote will mute this effect in many states
3) Dems will inevitably sue to validate more VBMs

But you can see how this starts becoming meaningful.
Fact: in the past decade alone, 7 Electoral College contests, 12 Senate races and 71 House races have been decided by <2%.

So no matter the size of the "blue wave" in Nov., this is a moderately big deal.
Read 3 tweets
The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn’t fraud that hurts the GOP.

It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/styl…
This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate.

Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
Take #NY27's June special election, for example. The Republican, Chris Jacobs (R), led 70%-28% in the Election Day count.

Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.
Read 6 tweets
Need proof we’re headed for a massive divide between Election Day results & absentees?

Look no further than last month’s special in #NY27 (a seat Trump won by 25%), where Chris Jacobs (R) led 70%-28% on election night but now leads just 53%-45% w/ most absentees counted.
P.s. This is a pretty dismal special election showing for Rs. Trump carried #NY27 by 25% but Jacobs (R)’s 8% lead over McMurray (D) could narrow even further to ~6% when Niagara Co. finishes its absentee count.
The bigger concern here: massive potential for confusion on Election Night & doubts in the weeks following considering most of the voting public - and even much of the media - has little understanding of how a vote count actually works.
Read 3 tweets
Record number of GOPs leaving Congress!
(27 now & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats

Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!

#Congress2020

Updated (again, because more keep leaving) DECEMBER
GOP @BradleyByrne is leaving Alabama District 1
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica

THREAD
Martha Roby is leaving!
Democratic Candidates Alabama District 2
#AL2
Phyllis Harvey-Hall
Community Activist and Retired Educator
harveyhall2congress.com
Nathan Mathis
Farmer & former State Rep
@olenate2020

#Congress2020
THREAD
Read 29 tweets
Record number of GOPs leaving Congress!
(25 & counting...)
Incumbents win 90% of the time.
With these gone, #NoSafeSeats

Below is a THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates for those seats!
Support them!

#Congress2020
#VoteBlueToSaveAmerica #VoteBlueToEndThisNightmare
Re-election rate among House incumbents has been up to 98% in modern history & it's rarely dipped below 90%.
#NoSafeSeats #Congress2020
#AL1 #AL2 #CA8 #CA50 #FL3 #FL19 #GA2 #GA7 #GA14 #IL15 #IN5 #KS1 #MI10 #MT #NC2 #NY2 #NY27 #OR2 #TX11 #TX13 #TX17 #TX17 #TX22 #TX23 #TX24 #UT1
GOP @BradleyByrne is leaving Alabama District 1
Democratic Candidates for #AL1 are:
James Averhart
jamesaverhart.com
@James4congress1
and
Kiani Arkus Gardner
College Instructor & Biologist
kianigardner.com
@KianiGardner
#Congress2020 #VoteBlueToSaveAmerica

THREAD
Read 30 tweets
New York #NY #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Websites, Twitter
& Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
#VoteBlueNY
Democratic Candidate for Governor of New York
Andrew Cuomo
andrewcuomo.com
@andrewcuomo
vs GOP Marc Molinaro
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Democratic Candidate for Lt Governor of New York
Kathy Hochul
kathyhochul.com
@KathyHochul
vs GOP Julie Killian
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Read 38 tweets
THREAD

What do an FBI arrest, a special prosecutor, insider trading, tax breaks spent on yachts, and not disclosing shady businesses all have in common?

It all stinks of Republican corruption.

Let's take a look 👀
Now that #NY27 GOP Rep. Chris Collins was arrested and indicted on insider trading, his seat in Congress is in play!

#TakeItBack
cnbc.com/2018/08/08/chr…
It’s not just Chris Collins. The scandal runs through Texas ...

#TX07 GOP Rep. John Culberson
#TX11 GOP Rep. Mike Conaway
#TakeItBack
texastribune.org/2018/08/08/tex…
Read 13 tweets
Here's the insider trading indictment against Chris Collins (NY-24), Trump's first supporter in Congress. He's a goner. documentcloud.org/documents/4639…
Collins and a bunch of people in his circle were big investors in an Australian biotech company. They all dumped stock after he tipped them off to a bad clinical trial result.
Collins's son and his son's father-in-law were both indicted along with him. His daughter-in-law and a bunch of others are listed as co-conspirators. They've got texts and cooperating witnesses.
Read 8 tweets
New York #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Website & Twitter Links.
Plus Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
Hey #NewYork
VOTE on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
THREAD below of All Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links ( Registration, Absentee & Poll Worker
But, ALSO,
VOTE on SEPTEMBER 13 in #PrimaryElections for State & Local Offices
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue

THREAD
Read 32 tweets
Hey #NewYork #NY
You need to REGISTER by FRIDAY, JUNE 1st!
to VOTE in your JUNE 26th #PrimaryElection
THREAD below of ALL Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links
(including Voter Registration, Absentee & being a Poll Worker)
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
ABSENTEE VOTING in #NewYork
#Absentee #NY
Deadline to apply for JUNE 26, 2018 #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 25
Online Fillable Form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…

Send or Deliver to elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Military? elections.ny.gov/VotingMilitary…

#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue

THREAD
Read 32 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!