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#Newspoll 55-45 to ALP
#Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 34 Greens 12 ON 6 others 10, virtually unchanged from previous,
#Newspoll Albanese satisfied 55% (-2)
Dutton 36% (-)
Don't have dissatisfied yet.
Better PM (skews to incumbents but not this much) Albanese leads 55-28.
Dutton 36% (-)
Don't have dissatisfied yet.
Better PM (skews to incumbents but not this much) Albanese leads 55-28.
#Newspoll Voice to Parliament
Yes 46
No 43
Undecided 11
That is the worst result for Yes on a two-answer basis (c. 51.6) so far.
Yes 46
No 43
Undecided 11
That is the worst result for Yes on a two-answer basis (c. 51.6) so far.
Note that question method has changed since previous Voice Newspoll, with actual referendum question now used.
'But it's only Morgan and Resolve dragging the trend down and the good polls still have Yes way ahead.'
Not anymore.
Not anymore.
NSW #Newspoll! 52-48 to ALP
NSW #Newspoll Coalition 37 Labor 36 Greens 12 others 15
NSW #Newspoll Perrottet net +9 (50-41) Minns net +8 (41-33) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Perrottet leads 43-33
#Newspoll Vic (state) 54.5 to ALP
ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 12 others 15
Andrews net -2 (46-48)
Guy net -25
Guy net -25
#Newspoll Vic (state) 54-46 to Labor. L-NP 37 ALP 37 Green 13 others 13
That is the first public poll from anyone inside 55-45 or with Labor not leading on primaries since June 2021 #VicVotes
#Newspoll Andrews net +7 (51-44) Guy net -20 (32-52) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Andrews leads rather modestly 51-32.
#Newspoll 55-45 to ALP
#Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 11 ON 6 UAP 1 others 9
#Newspoll
Albanese net +26 (59-33)
Dutton net -7 (39-46)
Better PM (skews to incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27
Albanese net +26 (59-33)
Dutton net -7 (39-46)
Better PM (skews to incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27
["Poll"] If there is a #Newspoll tonight what will be the Labor 2PP? (most recently 57)
"Poll"] If there is a #Newspoll tonight what will be Anthony Albanese's net satisfaction (most recently +32)
["Poll"] If there is a #Newspoll tonight what will be Peter Dutton's net satisfaction (most recently -8)
#Newspoll Dutton net -4 (37-41) and is the first non-previously-serving Opp Leader to start his career as such in net negatives (Peacock 2 also started with a negative netsat.)
#Newspoll Albanese net +35 (61-26). (corrected) Still not really a meaningful record high as Rudd was higher on net satisfaction (+48) in his first Newspoll as PM. Current Newspoll methods have lower don't know on satisfaction.
#Newspoll Better PM (skews to incumbents, oh yes including ALP ones) Albanese leads 59-25. Similar to Howard's leads over Beazley in first two months, way below Rudd over Nelson, way above Abbott over Shorten.
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Incorrect re #Newspoll - they made special adjustments for UAP and PHON pre 2019 and their final poll actually had a slightly weaker preference flow to Labor than actually occurred, reducing their error on 2PP not increasing it.
Even among pollsters that did not make such adjustments, preferencing assumptions were a minor component of the 2PP error, getting primary votes wrong was the major cause.
Across an average of each pollster's final polls, the 2.9% average 2PP error was caused by:
* Getting primaries wrong 2.7%
* Wrong preference flows 0.2%
(Ipsos and Morgan were the only pollsters to significantly overestimate flow to Labor).
* Getting primaries wrong 2.7%
* Wrong preference flows 0.2%
(Ipsos and Morgan were the only pollsters to significantly overestimate flow to Labor).
Also re this, people who argue that #Newspoll voting intentions are wrong because of the same poll's leader ratings don't seem to consider the reverse. Or at least that at the moment the leader ratings may not mean quite what they usually do.
Bigger problem is that almost every Opposition gets to 50-50 somewhere along the line (indeed Labor already briefly was a bit ahead early last year) and yet most oppositions do not win. Even oppositions that are at some stage 55-45 up only win half the time.
Seven federal governments have lost in the history of polling. All of them bar Labor 1949 were at some stage being really badly smashed in polling. There wasn't that much polling back in 1949.
With the #libspill rumblings after last night's #Newspoll, who is the firm choice to replace Michael O'Brien as the next leader of the Victorian Liberal Party?
It made the news guys
Clear win for the steamed carrot unless Tim Smith can get his credit card out and buy some votes...
Until the last poll a fortnight ago, Newspoll counted any Clive Palmer votes as "others", i.e. not Coalition, Labor, Greens or One Nation. These votes were split pretty much 50-50 as preferences, based on the 2016 election result. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 1/5
But now the UAP is a separate response option. Whether as an artefact of this, or because UAP really has increased in the past fortnight, or a bit of both, what would have been "others" last time is up from 9% to 12%. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 2/5
But it's not being split evenly anymore because, as @GhostWhoVotes relates (presumably based on what it says in The Oz), UAP preferences are being split 60-40 in favour of the Coalition. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 3/5
